A Devastating Alternate Second World War

August 06, 2007


Shattered World - Segment 53.2.2



It was approaching 2:00 in the afternoon local time and the 500 B-31's flying high over the Pacific due east of Sakhalin Island stretched for miles and miles, formations of the huge bombers glinting in the bright sun like a string of pearls draped over the blue ocean below. Captain Dan Wood had been on nearly a dozen similar missions, but those had been to the south over Honshu and Kyushu. This was his first mission this far North, and from what intelligence had said he wasn't looking forward to what awaited him. This raid was the biggest attack launched against Japanese oil facilities on Sakhalin so far and it was also the first large daylight raid. But no one doubted that the Japanese were waiting for them.
"Look sharp everyone, we're getting to within range of Jap fighters" Dan said into the mike, glancing at his co-pilot with a slight nod. And, sure enough, a couple minutes later word came over the radio that Jap fighters were inbound. Dan's job here was easy, as far as piloting went. He stayed in the carefully maintained formation and kept a steady hand on the controls. The hard part was the waiting, and he shared another tense look with the co-pilot. Then he spotted two enemy fighters, moving in from the northeast.
"We've got two Jap fighters at out three O'clock!" Dan said calmly, letting his gunners know what was what. Ten seconds later the gunners started hammering away, their 20mm shells lancing out to wipe the enemy out of the sky. Tracers arced out from his own bomber and dozens of others in the immediate vicinity. One of the Jap fighters exploded in a spectacular fireball and the propeller driven interceptor smeared out into a black and orange smudge against an otherwise clear sky. The other Jap fighter made it into the formation, and a moment later a B-31 dropped out trailing smoke and flame from two engines. Dan hoped the poor bastards on the stricken bomber made it back to the Marianas. For its part, the Japanese fighter was nowhere to be seen.
More minutes passed and eventually word got around that the Japanese fighters were moving off to the west back to their air fields. Nearly a dozen B-31's had been downed, and nearly as many forced to turn back. The massive bomber formation lumbered ahead, and Dan and everyone else in the raid kept a weary watch.
"Well, we've seen worse" John, his co-pilot, said hopefully. Dan winced inwardly, hoping his co-pilot hadn't just cursed them. You learned to get superstitious like that after commanding a bomber on a dozen or so missions over Japan. As if to strengthen his growing superstition, his fears were soon confirmed.
"Darts, we've got darts!" a voice screamed over the radio.
"Shit" Dan muttered, then relayed the warning to his gunners. U.S. Air crews had taken to calling the Japanese jet interceptors
darts due to their high speed and slick profile. They were bad news for the lumbering and unescorted B-31's. He'd encountered the darts twice, and both times he'd thanked Jesus upon landing safely back at base. More than a few B-31's hadn't been so lucky. His gunners hammered away as a dart streaked in, lines of tracers crisscrossed through the sky; they all missed. Seconds later a B-31 was spiraling towards the ocean below, trailing smoke, flame, and a couple of parachutes. Minutes later another dart came at his part of the formation and for a horrifying moment Dan was sure the Japanese jet was heading directly for him. Instead it bore down on a B-31 to his left and sent explosive rounds into its fuselage. Another B-31 tumbled out of the sky but this time the lines of tracers met upon the dart and exacted revenge, wiping the sleek jet out of the air.
News from around the air armada wasn't good. Another dozen bombers had been downed, and more forced to turn around and withdraw. The 500 bomber raid was now a 460,or so, bomber raid. Ahead, land came into view. Sakhalin. Now came the flack. The Japanese had apparently arranged every flak cannon in the world in and around
Nogliki to defend the oil infrastructure in the area. Black puffs of smoke erupted around the huge bomber formation, in their thousands, and every one seemed aimed directly for him. Occasionally bits of shrapnel clanked off the fuselage, and Dan prayed none of those bits got too big. When the lead bombers began dropping their bombs, he breathed a heavy sigh of relief. Not long after his own bomber lifted into the air as the bomb bays emptied and his ungainly bomber suddenly weighed quite a bit less.
Soon the formation was wheeling north and east to make for home, and Dan saw in satisfaction that massive plumes of smoke were rising into the air - birthed by what appeared to be dozens of raging fires. Later recon missions would judge better than him, but to Dan it sure looked like they'd done a lot of damage.
"Don't let your guard down guys, they're likely to hit us as we leave. They can't be happy down there" Dan said, not that he thought his men would really ease up. And they didn't have to wait long. Not more than a minute after he'd voiced the warning something streaked into the formation from what seemed to be directly below and a bomber not far to Dan's right in the formation was rolling over and falling like a stone, its left wing falling away separate from the fuselage.
"What the hell was that?" John said, looking around in all directions. Similar questions, some not quite so delicate, came over the radio. Several more bombers got struck out of the sky not too much later, again proceeded by something streaking up from directly under the formation. Whatever the Japs were throwing at them, they stopped coming after the formation had gotten out over the Ocean a ways. So, the Japs had something new eh? Dan wished he could strangle the intelligence officer who he was sure hadn't mentioned anything about a new Japanese anti-bomber weapon. Gripping his controls and willing the formation on, Dan set his teeth and resigned himself to some nasty missions in the future. The bright flash that washed over the cockpit a couple minutes later brought him out of his funk. A flash like that could only mean that the Japs had just caught hell somewhere back on Sakhalin. That made Dan and his co-pilot feel a bit better.


July 16th 1949

In a large daylight raid, some 500 U.S. B-31 bombers strike Japanese oil infrastructure in and around Nogliki on Sakhalin Island, causing moderate to heavy damage to the facilities in that area. U.S. bomber losses are heavy, with some 40 bombers downed and more damaged. The raid see's the first Japanese use of their new anti-bomber rocket interceptor, a small rocket powered aircraft capable of short but rapid ascents into the midst of bomber formations where it then rams enemy bombers. They are essentially human-guided anti-aircraft rockets and turn out to be fairly effective against B-31's although most of them miss their targets and end up gliding back home.
However, the new rocket-interceptors are far less effective against the faster and higher flying B-34's and the B-34 raid that strikes Okha, on the northern tip of Sakhalin, only suffers one bomber downed out of 24 aircraft. The rest drop high explosives on the town, except for one B-34 which instead drops a 40 kiloton atomic bomb. The atom bomb air bursts directly over the town of Okha, virtually wiping it off the map and doing massive damage to the oil producing and transporting infrastructure there. The fires of Okha will burn for weeks. Japanese oil production on Sakhalin has been a dealt a stunning blow.


Off the east coast of the Americas, German submarines have inflicted significant losses to Alliance and neutral shipping but aggressive anti-submarine sweeps by U.S. and Brazilian naval forces have inflicted sharp losses to the German submarine fleet in these coastal waters. The Kriegsmarine, determined to make the Atlantic a death zone for Alliance shipping, begins redeploying German submarines into the shipping lanes of the mid and Northern Atlantic. Many of the German and Italian submarines involved in running battles with convoys throughout the blockade of the Canary islands will remain in place, in hopes of slowing the Alliance build up there.


July 17th 1949

Columns of Nationalist Chinese troops entering northeast China to assume control
are attacked and repelled by organized communist Chinese infantry in heavy fighting over the past two days. The communist Chinese forces are poorly equipped but fanatical and well organized. Nationalist forces, surprised by the ferocity and coordination of the communist forces, begin massing for a more vigorous offensive into northeastern China.The Chinese civil war is underway.

July 20th 1949

The U.S. 7th fleet, steaming northwest towards Iwo Jima, has grabbed the attention of the Japanese who are rapidly assembling their remaining combined fleet for what they hope will be an epic battle. The 7th fleet has some 7 fleet carriers and a slow battle line the likes of which the world has never seen, with numerous massive battleships and cruisers. The Japanese combined fleet remains dangerous with 4 carriers and a battle line with about half the strength of the U.S. battle line. In addition, the island of Iwo Jima has been turned into a massive fortress and many dozens of K-24 kamikaze rocket-bombs stand ready to launch from special hardened launch stands while some conventional aircraft are based out of the bustling airfield.

July 21st 1949

Southwest of Leningrad German forces continue to push ahead, surrounding strong points where they encounter them and leveraging their growing air superiority to limit Soviet mobility and bombard Soviet forces wherever they concentrate to make a stand. Pskov has already been surrounded and is being relentlessly shelled. The Red Army, for its part, is falling back eastward towards the defenses outside Leningrad and Novgorod.

In Minsk, Red Army forces have been pushed deeper into the city, and nerve gas attacks are coming in nearly around the clock. To the east, German forces are hammering at the Soviet defenses west of Smolensk and suffering heavy losses for little gain. Soviet forces defending Smolensk are well positioned, well equipped with anti-tank weaponry, and dug in deep; what air strength the Soviets have left in the north has been concentrated here, making Luftwaffe attempts to control the skies very costly. The battle for Smolensk is rapidly becoming a cauldron of blood and destruction for the German Army.

July 23rd 1949

With the U.S. 7th fleet about 200 kilometers south of Iwo Jima, the U.S. puts plans for its ambitious operation Torch Light into effect. Early in the morning, U.S. B-34 bombers appear over Iwo Jima. Having been unchallenged by Japanese defenses, one of the bombers drops a 40 kiloton atomic bomb on the island. Fused for a ground burst, the atomic bomb explodes almost exactly in the center of the island, wiping out a large area of Japanese fortifications, destroying the island's air field, and throwing vast amounts of radioactive dust and fine ash all over the island. The extensive Japanese fortifications, designed with air burst atomic attacks in mind, prove ineffective against ground bursts. Japanese aircraft, having taken off to avoid a potential atomic strike from the incoming B-34's, flee to Okinawa. For the Japanese garrison on the stricken island, radioactive contamination is now a death sentence.

To the south, the U.S. 7th fleet shifts it course to a more northwesterly direction. At nearly the same time, a powerful U.S. naval task force begins steaming northeast from out of the Philippines. This task force, itself nearly half the size of the U.S. 7th fleet and including many troop carriers stuffed full of marines, is the second pincer in a vast envelopment maneuver being executed by the USN. The Japanese combined fleet, unaware of the U.S. task force steaming from the Philippines, continues to linger north of Iwo Jima in a highly dispersed formation designed to mitigate the effects of an atomic attack on the fleet. Their plan is to wait until the U.S. fleet approaches Iwo Jima and to then launch a ferocious conventional and kamikaze strike on the vulnerable U.S. troop transports and supply vessels. They don't yet realize that the 7th fleet is no longer approaching Iwo Jima or that another task force is heading from the Philippines directly towards Okinawa.

July 25th 1949

A Japanese submarine spots the 7th fleet well west of Iwo Jima, and steaming northwest. Realizing that the true target must be Okinawa, the Japanese combined fleet begins steaming northwest at flank speed. The Japanese Navy believes the U.S. has made a huge mistake and that the Japanese combined fleet may be able to combine with land based air forces out of Okinawa to inflict crippling losses on the U.S. fleet. However, they remain unaware that another U.S. task force is approaching Okinawa. On Iwo Jima itself most of the Japanese garrison not killed outright in the atomic explosion is either dead or dying from radiation poisoning, turning the island fortress into an island mausoleum.

July 27th 1949

Japanese observation aircraft flying out of Okinawa spot a large U.S. task force moving to the west of Okinawa proper, throwing commanders there into a panic. They have been preparing to meet the massive U.S. 7th fleet in the waters to the south or east, and now a second large force has been observed to the west. After a frantic series of exchanges with the high command back in the home islands, Japanese air forces on Okinawa and Kyushu are ordered to strike the U.S. force moving in from the west.

In northeast China, Nationalist forces backed by U.S. tactical air support begin a broad offensive into the communist held region in northeast China. Despite bitter communist resistance the Nationalist forces make steady progress. The communist forces, with little in the way of heavy weaponry and no air power, have no choice but to withdraw, making stands wherever the terrain is favorable. This fighting is ugly, with neither side taking prisoners or showing any mercy.

July 28th 1949

The Battle of the East China Sea begins as Japanese aircraft attack the large U.S. task force moving in from the west of Okinawa. Japanese propeller and jet fighters from Okinawa and Kyushu tear into a swarm of U.S. carrier jets and land-based long range propeller fighters, engaging in an epic air clash in which some 200 Japanese fighters are downed in exchange for roughly 70 U.S. fighters. While the fighters engage in their huge fur ball, the Japanese launch a two-pronged assault on the U.S. task force itself. Several waves of aging, conventional, Japanese bombers of all types attack the four carriers in the task force and the surrounding ships, while medium and heavy bombers drop nearly 100 K-24 kamikaze rocket bombs. The conventional Japanese bombers manage to inflict only moderate damage on one carrier, several destroyers, and a couple of cruisers while losing nearly half their number, but the K-24's are more successful. Of the 91 K-24's successfully deployed against the U.S. task force, 21 find a target while the rest either malfunction, miss their targets, or are shot down by flak and enemy jet fighters. The 21 kamikaze rocket-bombs which do find a target inflict serious losses on the U.S. task force - crippling a fleet carrier, sinking a troop transport with the loss of all hands including thousands of Marines, as well as sinking six supply ships and three destroyers.

Several hours after the air clashes and attacks on the U.S. task force, a B-34 squadron passes over Okinawa and drops two atomic bombs. Both 40 kiloton devices are air burst over Okinawa's largest air fields where most of the Japanese aircraft based out of Okinawa that survived the Battle of the East China Sea are wiped out along with the air fields themselves and surrounding depots and troop concentrations.

August 1st 1949

Pskov falls to German forces, and leading German elements have advanced to within twenty five kilometers of Leningrad and to within forty kilometers of Novgorod. Soviet defenses have finally begun to firm, on a line from Leningrad south to Novgorod and from there down to Smolensk. In Minsk the remaining 150,000+ Red Army troops continue to hold out despite supplies that are now dwindling. Anxious to reduce Minsk once and for all, German infantry have begun to press hard into Minsk proper despite the resulting heavy losses.

After several days of air attacks on coastal gun batteries, troop concentrations, and air facilities all around Okinawa not wiped out in the two atomic bombings, U.S. marines come ashore on the central part of Okinawa. The landings, preceded by massive conventional, napalm, and mustard gas bombardments on the landing areas by air forces and cruisers off shore, succeed in securing several strong beach heads although Japanese resistance is fierce. In the mid-afternoon hours Japanese forces surprise the U.S. task force with several successive waves of Kamikaze attacks accompanied by a conventional air attack from aircraft out of Kyushu. While the conventional attack accomplishes little while getting cut to pieces by U.S. fighters, the K-24 kamikaze rocket-bombs, launched from hardened stands around the northern part of the island, streak into the U.S. task force in the waters off the island, sinking two more supply ships and sinking or damaging several cruisers and destroyers.

August 2nd 1949

In its last major engagement of the Second World War, the Japanese Navy's combined fleet engages the U.S. 7th fleet several hundred kilometers southeast of Okinawa in the Battle of the Northern Philippine Sea.
After both fleets attempt to maneuver to gain advantage, the battle begins with both sides launching large carrier attack forces. The Japanese aircraft, the last fleet air strength that the Japanese possess, are heavily outnumbered and largely cut to pieces by American carrier fighters. The few Japanese bombers that make it through are relatively ineffectual, only moderately damaging several ships and sinking a destroyer. The American carrier attack is devastatingly effective, cutting through a vastly out-numbered Japanese carrier fighter force to sink all four remaining Japanese fleet carriers and several lesser ships as well. The surface portion of the Japanese fleet, short on fuel on having little hope of ever fully refuelling, continues to steam northwest in vain pursuit of the 7th fleet in a desperate hope that they can close and, in combination with Japanese air forces, inflict significant damage in a final suicidal charge. It is the death run of the last great Japanese naval battle line.

After a series of small but persistent bombings on British military units and diplomatic facilities across Egypt, following the earlier large bombing of the British Embassy, tensions have ratcheted to new levels in the troubled British ally. In Alexandria, Cairo, and other Egyptian cities the Muslim Brotherhood and the Nationalist Islamic Movement have called on the "apostates" and "British puppet government" to expel the British and declare neutrality in the ongoing war. The crack down by British forces and the Egyptian government has clamped down even tighter, and there are whispers of revolution on the streets. Although the upper classes mostly back the British and the economic growth they have brought, the feeling on the "Arab street" is decidedly anti-western and anti-British in particular. The Army is mostly pro-British as well, but it is also nationalist to a degree and radical Islam has been seeping in for the past few years.

August 3rd 1949

With U.S. heavy bombers hammering air fields and strategic sites around Kyushu, the Japanese are unable to launch their planned land-based air attack on the 7th fleet. As a result, southeast of Okinawa swarming U.S. carrier aircraft sink virtually the entire remaining Japanese combined fleet, including all the remaining battleships. The pathetic remnants of the Japanese surface fleet have no choice but to turn towards the Home Islands where they may be used for scrap metal or incorporated into coastal defenses. The grand U.S. feint towards Iwo Jima and the pincer movement on Okinawa has been a brilliant success for the USN despite heavy losses to kamikaze rockets off the coast of Okinawa, throwing the carefully crafted Japanese "decisive battle" plans into chaos and forcing them to fight on the USN's terms. In a week of fighting, despite a bitter last stand, the remaining strength of the Japanese navy has been destroyed;Iwo Jima has been turned into a island of the dead, of little use to anyone; and Okinawa has been blockaded, invaded, and most of its air power destroyed. In the coming weeks U.S. sailors will call this week "The Huge Pacific Week" and the Battle of the Northern Philippine Sea will go down as among the most lopsided in naval history.

In Italy the aircraft carrier
Aquila is launched and enters official service; she carries 75 aircraft and can make 30 knots. Still reeling from the disastrous campaign in the Atlantic, the Italian navy is licking its wounds and organizing itself to hold the western and central Mediterranean which it still dominates. The U.S., for its part, continues to mass forces on the Canary Islands and the SBC is rapidly expanding and upgrading an existing air field to support B-34 operations. This buildup has been hindered to a degree by a series of volcanic eruptions on the islands, but undaunted by the forces of nature the U.S. buildup continues.


To Be Continued in Segment 53.3...


165 comments:

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Bobby a ground burst on Iwo Jima will throw up a cloud of radioactive dust and ash that will drift for hundreds of kilometers on the winds - that fleet that is only 150km away would get dusted by deadly radiation - it would contaminate every ship in the fleet. Sorry but there is no way on earth the US would use a ground burst on Iwo - that fleet would be covered in radioactive ash and debris and every sailor in it would be dead in days.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here again - also why are the Japanese planes ditching after the strike on Iwo? They could easily have flown to Japan from Iwo - there is no reason for them to ditch when they can make land instead.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

About the radioactive dust from Iwo, it depends on where the winds were headed and where the fleet moves now doesn't it? I don't buy that everywhere within 500 km of Iwo is going to be deadly dangerous.

About the planes ditching, they had enough fuel to fight an engagement immediately around Iwo and not much more. Really it was the kamikaze rocket-bombs that were supposed to do the most damage; as the did at Okinawa

Anonymous said...

The fleet is only 150km south of Iwo Bobby - not 500km. And the attack you have postulated would generate a huge plume of radioactive dust and debris that would definitely cover where the fleet is. Sorry but that is the way it is.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

The dust from the ground burst isn't going to disperse in a perfect circle extending out in all directions from Iwo. I would think it would get lifted up into the air inside the mushroom cloud and a lot would end up in the upper atmosphere, and it would get sheered by shifting wind and such. Also, if a front were moving through some rain might take a lot of it out of the air. The USN could have timed the operation that way, waiting for the right whether conditions to keep the fleet safe.
I can invoke authorial power and say that is so.

Anonymous said...

A groundburst lays its debris pattern in a sausage shape - it is much longer than it is wide - it may only be about 20 miles wide but it could extend seventy to 100 miles downwind easily. That fleet wouldnt get that close Bobby - make it 250km and its believable - 150 is danger close - and I dont see the US risking a fleet like that - they have to know what a ground burst would do - and they wouldnt trust a weather forecast with their sailor's lives.

Anonymous said...

DerekP here

Olefin - you're wrong.

A fast carrier task force can outrun a fallout plume. Fallout in the absence of any significant superimposed wind velocity will travel at circa 50 kph. Certainly 150 km plus 3 hours steaming will put the fleet out of harms way

Remember that the US have learnt some of the harsher lessons of fallout from earlier bombs

lordroel said...

Nice new part bobby but is the Italian aircraft carrier Aquila like OTL version ore a modern version and are there still more carriers in the pipeline fore the Italian navy.

Anonymous said...

ctwaterman again

*COOL*

Great Update Bobby - I again love the personal touch of the first person narative from the US Pilot of a B-31.

I was going to point out that there are huge number of other Islands in the Volcano Island Chain that hold Iwo Jima and in the Ryukho Islands that hold Okinawa. And that Iwo Jima is not necessarily vital to US plans. But then you litteraly blew up the Island.... :)

I have to agree Oelfin that given the prevailing winds the US can have easily judged where the plum of dust is going to go and simply avoided it. Now its going to be an area you want to avoid for quite a while.

Well the Japanese aircraft are short of fuel when they take off because Japan is running out of fuel and certainly shipping to move it to Iwo Jima is in very short supply and on the endangered species list!

Overall an Excellent Chapter

Ernie said...

You really don't mean 1949, do you ?

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Well if Bobby wants to ignore weather patterns, constant prevailing winds (its the reason the US decided against using gas on Iwo because the winds there were so high that it would disperse it almost immediately), and the fact that no sane US naval commander would take his fleet that close to a huge plume of deadly fallout then thats his choice.

The rest of the update is good - but the second kamikaze attack doesnt do enough damage - Okhas have enough punch to sink merchant ships with one hit - most of those damaged ships, if they are merchant ships, should be sunk. A cruiser could survive more than one hit but most WWII freighters and supply ships would be lucky to still be afloat if they got hit by one.

Also the IJN death ride - first off he is ignoring that the Japanese still have several BB at Singapore. Second - where did they get the fuel to fight that far away from Okinawa?

Bobby if they sortied from Northern Honshu and Hokkaido they would have needed a lot fuel to get that far. Where did they sail from?

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

You have the 7th fleet coming in from the west of Okinawa but the battle several hundred kilometers to the southeast of Okinawa.

Why would the Japanese be there? They would have wanted to be under as much air cover as possible - meaning they would have went to Okinawa itself to be within air cover from Kyushu and the airfields on the islands north of Okinawa.

Sorry Bobby - but the update has some logic flaws in it - the way it reads now it sounds like the Japanese all got drunk and threw their fleet away stupidly.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - lets go thru the update - first off:

Battle of East China Sea - 3 carriers providing air cover - at most 135 fighters (3 squadrons each). Result - one carrier crippled (but maybe not sunk), one moderately damaged, several transports sunk and one DD from a huge aerial attack where almost half the defending US fighters are shot down. No mention of any air cover from Formosa or China

Questions:
A) Why didn’t the Japanese attack the US force with planes out of Kyushu and Korea - both of whom should have been in range? There should have been waves of kamikazes and conventional aircraft coming from those fields - especially after the US lost a carrier and at least half their fighters.
B) Why did the conventional planes not attack in a suicide attack - its life or death, victory or defeat - and why are they going after cruisers and destroyers? The carriers are the key - kill them and the US fleet has no air cover. Second - why was the attack damage so light - the bombers would have had almost a clean shot with the fighters totally engaged as they were.
Those planes wouldn’t have dropped their bombs and torpedoes and went oh well I missed - they would have crashed the decks if they had to - or did what the torpedo bombers did in OTL - follow their torps in and smash into the targeted ship to add their fuel to the damage.
C) 100 K-24's - what fighters shot them down? That huge furball had to have taken every American fighter - if they lost 60 they had to have been almost completely engaged - unless you are saying the US took a 75 percent loss rate or more. So that leaves flak - and US WWII flak against a 550mph+ guided rocket bomb? Any hits by flak on them would have been by luck.
D) The bombers got in clean and launched 100 K-24's - there should have been a lot more hits than 19 - even given a 25 percent failure rate that leaves 75 successful rocket starts - so only 19 out of 75 hit anything? And even a near miss by a 1200kg warhead causes a lot of damage - near misses by Okhas severely damaged a US DD off Okinawa and even a single hit on a DD either sank it or put it out of the war for good.

That task force should have lost a lot more ships with only 3 carriers to cover it - a more likely result would be all three carriers heavily damaged or sunk plus several more transports and the fleet having to withdraw until the Seventh Fleet could get there to give it air cover.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here again

Other inconsistencies

July 23rd - fleet leaves Philliphines (Luzon) heading NW to Okinawa

July 27 - fleet coming from the Philliphines is spotted to the east of Okinawa

July 28 - fleet coming from the Philliphines is now to the west of Okinawa

The fleet has lots of transports in it that can make, at best, 15 knots - not possible to move that far that fast let alone be east of the island one day then west.

August 1, 1949

Fleet lands on Okinawa after two a-bombs dropped by one B-34 (since when can they carry two - if so why didn’t they do that in the previous attacks where it was one per plane) the US lands on Okinawa - but the only Kamikaze attacks are from land launched rocket kamikazes? Where are the planes out of Kyushu and southern Honshu - and don’t give me anything about them being knocked out - the Japanese launched thousands of kamikazes in OTL - and definitely could do the same here.

Also what air cover are they using - one carrier is crippled or sunk, and over half the fleet's fighters are gone. The other two carriers would be hard pressed to defend themselves let alone launch air attacks.

lordroel said...

In OTL the American radar spotted the Japanese aircraft during the Battle of the Philippine Sea before the mange to enge them resulting very large turkey shoot and the US had better aircraft, experienced pilots, and radar-coordinated combat air patrols something I think is by now in the SW timeline more advance.

Second why is the US The 7th fleet made op of only 7 fleet carriers are there any light carriers with them ore are the only those carriers.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - Should I go thru the rest? The update needs a rewrite Bobby - i.e. a repolishing.

As it stands it doesnt read well, it has glaring inconsistencies and frankly it has the US get away with murder at a very low cost and doing some very dumb things - like sending three CV against Okinawa on their own and somehow surviving an air attack that should have put that task force fleeing with its air cover gone.

I know people want to see Japan get its butt kicked and I agree that they would - but the Japanese suddenly having enough fuel to do a death ride several hundred kilometers to the southeast of Okinawa when that is basically throwing the fleet away?

No planes from Kyushu, Honshu or Korea joining the action - were they all drunk on sake?

A B-34 carrying two nukes when no B-34 previously has carried two - let alone why use two nukes when the airfields on Okinawa were built right next to each other?

A massive kamikaze attack by rocket propelled attackers using 1200 kg warheads that only sinks one supply ship and damages but not sinks several DD's and cruisers? No rocket guided missiles on Iwo or Okinawa but they are at Sakhalin when Iwo and Okinawa are hugely important to the Japanese - remember only they and Korea, for instance, got nerve gas stocks.

Plus where is the nerve gas the Japanese have on Okinawa - why didn’t they use it in the air assaults or when the Americans landed? They have never used it before so it would be a huge defensive surprise factor and could have stopped the assault dead on the beaches.

Let alone the fact that since May 6 the US has dropped 2 atomic bombs on Japan, four on Sakhalin, Okinawa and Iwo, and three nukes in the Canaries plus the atomic material the British used for the Sirte and Tunis nukes.

That is 10 nukes in short time, let alone the 9 other nukes dropped between Dec 2 and now - that’s 19 total nukes. US production cant be more than 20 -30 per year at best right now - not unless they are violating every safety procedure in the book and are about to have one heck of a nuclear accident at their production facilities I don’t see how they are making that many nukes, let alone having any left to deploy to fight the Germans.

Sorry but this whole update reads more like an attempt to just get the whole death ride, Iwo, Okinawa thing out of the way so you can concentrate on Germany.

Anonymous said...

ctwaterman again

I will have to spend some times with some maps... before I comment completely.

But Oelfin I think you need to look at the Miss rates of the Japanese Suicide attackers. A 19% percent suicide rate is huge. And are you absoloutely sure the Rocket Kamakazie are the ones with the Huge War Heads or something smaller and more easily delivered to the target zone. I wont get into what compressability will do to a 550+ MPH wooden aircraft in a Dive.... I mean just how many aircraft just accidently tried to pass through the sound barrier and broke up because they are made quickly, cheaply, by unskilled labor and mostly from wood.

From altitude a Destroyer or a Cruiser looks an awful lot like a Cruiser or a Battle Ship to a 16-18 year old kid who has never seen either from above in the air. Not to mention how many of those young inexperienced pilots dived to steep and ripped the wings off their little suicide planes.

The Okha was a plane of desperation and you actually think it would be a totally reliable and highly accurate weapons system. Considering that over 450 MPH in a dive the Me-262, the P-38, and several other well know aircraft all suffered sever compression of the flight surfaces and control issues why do you think an aircraft supposed to dive a near 620 MPH would not have suffered from compressibility and control problems???????? After all your the Aeronautical Engineer and you know how many aircraft failed when they approached the speed of sound due to structural design flaws and weakness in the wings. ??????

Overall I rate a 19% hit rate to be extremely lucky.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

The Okhas here arent planes of desperation - the Japanese have been working on them for months and have had time to perfect and test them. Plus they arent going anywhere near the speed of sound - 550mph is well below it. You are basically talking about a guided missile here - one based on German designs that basically takes the guidance system out and substitutes a pilot. And ramming with the human eye beats any guidance system that SW tech can produce in 1949.

As for the warheads - 1200 kg was the design weight for the Okha - and the improved engine versions that never saw combat in WWII OTL are basically the ones Bobby has deployed here. Take an object moving that fast, put in a warhead like that and you can kiss goodbye any civilian ship smaller than 5000 tons with one hit - maybe even bigger. As for a DD - a hit like that can break one in two with one hit. On a carrier with unarmored flight decks - it would be inside the hangar when it detonated - it would only take one hit to put a CV out of business for days and 2-3 to put it on the bottom or the repair yard until 1950.

So 19 percent is ridiculously low when you figure that they launched clean -most of the Okhas that were lost in WWII OTL were lost when their carriers were shot down. Here they got to launch range and seperated clean. There should be a lot more hits - more like 25-30 total - with that fact. Plus you have to factor in that the Japanese conventional attack planes would have went kamikaze as well - its victory or death time. Those three CV should have either been flaming wrecks or sitting on the bottom of the East China Sea. Only having one get crippled under that kind of attack is not realistic at all - or to put it another way under that kind of attack would you be ok if the Fatherland group had only lost a CA and had a few other ships damaged?

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - or to say it another way - WWII Okhas did better than 19 percent when they successfully launched. So why here, when you had 100 launches of a better design that the Japanese had time to work on did they do worse?

Sorry CT - but this update needs to be either withdrawn and revised or it needs some serious rethinking. This was an American cakewalk - it would be the equivalent of the Nazis taking Moscow with only 10,000 men lost in a month.

lordroel said...

Its is and remains fiction Olefin and even my on timeline battle naval battle of Okinawa was a cake wake fore the US navy but the US navy dos by now have more advance radar better train man and the best planes in service will the Japanese use outdated planes witch whey don’t know which planes are and probably pilots who are not the cream alal cream as the are long gone I think.

Anonymous said...

Roel - the Japanese just shot down a bunch of B-31's and the first B-34 lost in combat - so they still have effective pilots and effective aircraft. They arent attacking with trainers here - not yet - these are new planes and new equipment - and this US cakewalk is about as realistic as the Germans defeating Russia in a month with only 20 tanks being lost. Sorry but I know a few things about kamikaze attacks and about what they can do - and this is more like the Divine Light Breeze, not the Divine Wind.

And the Death Ride happening as written - only if every Japanese admiral was drunk on sake and even then it wouldnt have happened that way - for one they didnt have the fuel to make it to where the battle supposedly happened.

lordroel said...

Oke that make that makes sense.

SWFcane said...

The update could use a little TLC... Make the US take a litte more damage... I think the ground burst on IWO (and the fleet / fallout) can be mitigated however Bobby wants to do it... Id go with a success rate of 30 %- 40% for the K-24's that got off clean... Clean the death ride up a bit as well, and if possible, let us know how many atom bombs the US has in stocks, and how fast were producing them now... I was surprised as how fast we were using them at them over the past few updates... Other than the aesthetics, good update...

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - Hey I am not trying to be a pain here - and the update has good stuff in it - the initial air attack on Sakhalin is a great piece of writing. The slowdown in Russia is well down and realistic as is the description of the sub losses in the Atlantic (although Brazil's fleet being able to kill German subs effectively is a stretch when the RN fleet was barely handling them until a few months ago). But the attacks on Iwo, Okinawa and the Death Ride - sorry but those don’t rise to Bobby's standards - they have the hallmark of being rushed and not well thought out and "gamed" for realism. As I said - they are more like "lets get this done with and get back to the fun in the Atlantic".

lordroel said...

I hope not Olefin as i want to se what going to happen but think bobby want to go back to the war in Africa and the future offence of the US against the Germans.

The air attack on Sakhalin is great but how do the Japanese ménage to construct them as I believe the Japanese don’t have the engines to build them.

Anonymous said...

thank you bobby for this interesting update. i must agree with olefin though, this segment could do with a bit of revision. now it looks like japan may not survive 3 more months. is it not more realistic to at least follow some of the suggestions olefin is putting forward and retract some of your 'authouritative powers'?

anyhow, thank you for another great read, and im looking forward with vigour to next segment (or a revision of the current one). matias

SWFcane said...

As many have mentioned... The first person description of the b-31 attack is AWESOME... Personally, I think this is when Bobby does his best work... Ill never forget the beginning of the SW 2nd WW with Otto hiding out along the French / German border... It takes some amazing creativity to produce that kind of mental picture for a reader...

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Let me correct one earlier comment - when I read the B-34 strike over Okinawa I missed the word force - so my earlier statement about one B-34 dropping two a-bombs is thus null and void.

CJ said...

Some general remarks
1)US Nukes: Production is going to be around 10 devices per month by this time. We also know from Bobby that well prior to the US going to war with Germany, the US was stockpiling about half the A-bomb production as a hedge for contingencies. So yes, the US could indeed have used that many A-bombs in this period of time. It is also highly likely that the US has expanded the production facilities for A-bombs and is no longer relying on just one set of facilities.

2)B-34 Stuff: Well we had our first B-34 combat loss, that was inevitable. It will be interesting to see how the SBC adjusts to this new Japanese weapon with regards to tactics and such. Oh, the B-34 can carry four nukes, so two at this range out of bases in the Philippines is not a stretch. AS to why they didn't do it earlier - evolution of tactics.
And who says the two airfields were right next to each other? I just looked at a map and I count six airfields on Okinawa at the time, plus two more on Ie Shima.


3)IJN Death Ride: It's fine as written. Bobby previously said that they had enough fuel for one last sortie, so I'm not seeing a problem. Now personally I would have liked a Pacific Jutland, but the times they are a changing. As for their positioning, come on folks. They were looking to die gloriously and that meant finding and engaging the 7th Fleet.
*As for battleships in Singapore, that's unconfirmed speculation IIRC. When I drew up the 'What's the IJN Got Left' list, Bobby just said that it was about right but declined to get too detailed so he could avoid being pinned down at times like this.

4)Japanese Reactions: Folks, historically the Japanese didn't do so well when things didn't go according to their plans. We're talking about the same folks who stuck with the same plan for the Decisive Battle for decades, even though they never once got the plan to work in exercises. They just assumed the USN would play to their script and everything would be wonderful. What we've got here are fog of war and friction. The Japanese laid out their plans for a defense of Iwo Jima and would have oriented their resources to support that. When they figured out what was really going on, there was probably a long moment of shock as they scrambled to shift resources south to support Okinawa. They probably figured they had a few more months to get Okinawa ready and they got caught with their pants down. So during the initial phases of US operations against Okinawa, the Japanese were trying to execute a defense plan that likely was short several pieces.

5)Japanese Nerve Gas: Good question, but maybe the Japanese are doing what they did in OTL and holding their main effort back for the interior of the island. Or maybe the stocks were at central depots and have not yet been distributed to all the field units. Anyhow, I'm sure we'll see their use soon.

6)Kamikazes: With regards to trainers and other aircraft, it's like I said above. They Japanese were caught less than fully prepared for an attack on Okinawa. I fully expect the intensity of Kamikaze attacks to increase in PART 53.3 as the Japanese shift resources.
* About the K-24s, we really don't how they compare to the OTL Okha, so I'm going to withhold comment until Bobby clarifies how he views them. Though I will say that the OTL Okhas did not travel at 550mph for their entire flight time.
* As for "thousands of Kamikazes", I again point out that that was over about a five month period in OTL. Give it time.

7)USN Stuff:
*Regarding the TG that went after Okinawa, I tend to agree that it should have more CVs in light of the CV building program that is cannon. That being said, who knows how many CVEs came along as part of the support force. It's also possible that they went with fighter-heavy airwings for whatever reason and landed most of their attack birds. The composition of US carrier air wings changed was adjusted to circumstances in OTL, no reason they couldn't here given CV numbers.
*Regarding the USN Battle Line - the description is probably a bit of an exaggeration as Jellicoe had 28 BB & 9 BC at Jutland.

8)Revisions/Re-writes/Etc.: Maybe it's just me, but I remember the days when we'd read what Bobby wrote and say, "Hmm, I wonder?" We'd go out, do a little research, and far more often than not we'd discover that what Bobby wrote was actually more believable than we first thought and could be made to work. We asked for clarification, not re-writes. A lot of what we learned on the boards from each other was the result of us going out and scavenging for information to see if we could make something work. It was a lot more fun than declaring things to be impossible or asking for re-writes because the latest segment didn't fit with how we thought the story should go. Bobby has always been open to tweaking and technical correction. But at the end of the day this is his story, and he can write whatever he wants to.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here once more

Japanese aircraft, having taken off to avoid a potential atomic strike from the incoming B-34's, end up being forced to ditch hours later in the waters off the island.

If they had enough fuel to circle for hours they had enough to get home - its only 650 miles to Tokyo from Iwo Jima - and closer yet to Okinawa - anything that had enough fuel to circle for more than one hour (you said hours specifically) could have made it home easily. Thus the earlier statement you made about them not having enough fuel is incorrect - either they went down a lot more quickly or they got home after the strike.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - yes he can CJ - and he can leave it as he wants - but the story, as it stands, has contradictions, incorrect statements, fleets being on different sides of Okinawa on successive days, and a Battle of the East China Sea that is about as unrealistic as it gets. (Show me any WWII OTL situation where a carrier had more than three squadrons of fighters per carrier and went out with no dive bombers or torpedo planes.)

So he can leave it as it is - that is Bobby's choice. However in this case saying its Bobby's story is a cop out - I seem to remember you, CJ, telling me how his Pearl Harbor story had to be rewritten because of a similar situation. You didnt say well its his story - you and others pointed out flaws and it was rewritten.

Oh as for Singapore - Bobby confirmed a long time ago that there were at least 2 -3 BB's and several CA's at Singapore. So again there is yet another contradiction. Obviously those BB and CA are still there and still afloat.

Anonymous said...

Olefin - so again CJ - if Bobby turned this around and under a similar attack had a German, Italian or Japanese fleet take the moderate damage they took would you think the story reads correctly? I dont think so.

Anonymous said...

Althist Fanatic here

Great segment Bobby. But Olefin is right on a few points. The success rate for the Okha in OTL was 20-30%. The K-24 can go faster, is realistically designed, and carries a much bigger payload. So why only the 19% success rate? The USN does have a few new toys they didn't have in OTL (radar, improved AAA, etc.) but that should still see at least 25-30% in my opinion. Another good point was that there were plenty of stationary planes in Japan and Korea that could easily be available somewhere as close as Okinawa. Same thing for the remnants of the IJN in Korea. You inexplicably left them out. One last point considering the ground burst on Iwo. It's perfectly plausible that the Americans bombed the island specifically at a time when the weather patterns wouldn't affect the USN. But we can still barely predict weather now, so how can they be sure in 1949? I find it completely implausible that not one US sailor died from fallout from a bomb site not 150 miles away. I think this segment needs to be repolished, but that depends if your happy with it or not.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/Allbombs.html

Mk III - 120 produced in two years from 4/47 to 4/49 - so that makes for a rate of 5 per month - bombs were airburst not designed for a ground explosion

Mk IV - 550 produced in 2.5 years - also an airburst weapon

MK-5 - 140 created - first contact bomb but not available till 1952 -

So a question - just when did the US create a bomb that could do a ground explosion? The US did detonate ones on the ground before 1952 - but they were test bombs not dropped by planes. I looked but I dont see anything in the timeline where the US made the leap to 1952 and developed a survivable ground burst bomb that would fuse correctly to go off at ground level.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/Allbombs.html

Mk III - 120 produced in two years from 4/47 to 4/49 - so that makes for a rate of 5 per month - bombs were airburst not designed for a ground explosion

Mk IV - 550 produced in 2.5 years - also an airburst weapon

MK-5 - 140 created - first contact bomb but not available till 1952 -

So a question - just when did the US create a bomb that could do a ground explosion? The US did detonate ones on the ground before 1952 - but they were test bombs not dropped by planes. I looked but I dont see anything in the timeline where the US made the leap to 1952 and developed a survivable ground burst bomb that would fuse correctly to go off at ground level.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

Hi all,

I plan on making a few tweaks to segment 53.2

* The 7th fleet approaches to within 200km of Iwo rather than 150km

* The Japanese fighters at Iwo retreat to Okinawa rather than ditching

* The U.S. task force moving from the Philippines has 4 carriers rather than 3

As for some other concerns, mentioned by Olefin in particular...

The 19% success rate of the kamikaze rocket bombs was pretty good considering it was the first time they used them in combat. Its a good bet that the success rate will go up as they refine the design and improve delivery methods, etc.
Also, if you look at the Battle of the East China Sea the Japanese didn't do that bad. Damaging and crippling half the U.S. carriers there and taking out a troop transports and other supply ships, plus the damage the later waves of Kamikaze rocket-bombs. Also, the Japanese doctrine called for the conventional aircraft to fight conventionaly, as the Japanese command still believes this to be more effective. After the losses around Okinawa you should start to see more kamikaze attacks by conventional aircraft.

Also, keep in mind that Okinawaw hasn't fallen, it just has U.S. beach heads in the north an d has lost most of its conventional air power. Okinawa is still well in the fight, so its not like Japan has been knocked out of the war.

Lastly, Japan does have a fleet left at Singapore but its extremely low on fuel, spare parts, etc. And its pretty much trapped unless the Japanese decide to try another death run.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

Creating a fuse to have the atomic bomb go off at ground level strikes me as being pretty trivial

Also, about the K-24 rocket-bomb. It is similar to the late-model Okha designs from OTL which had smaller warheads but more speed and longer range. Note that their speed on final approach is more like 500+ mph, not the 550mph I had mentioned before. I did some research on the OTL Okha and 550+mph struck me as being too fast.
Also, U.S. radar-directed AAA guns would have some change to shoot some of them down, which accounts for part of the high failure rate. As I said before, success rates will improve as Japanese doctrine for using the K-24's improves and as they further refine the model

Anonymous said...

Olefin here -

Creating that fuse took a long time Bobby - thats why the US took till 1952 to get a ground burst weapon. Otherwise why build your first 700 weapons to be airburst - especially since no one knew how bad fallout was for a groundburst weapon.

Having an effective ground burst weapon is a quantum leap for the US.

Anonymous said...

Bobby - they had time to refine the weapon and also to properly train those who were using it. If it was rushed into production and had people with little training shoved into them then 19 percent is believable. But they have been working on these for a while now and have been able to get the bugs out - and to be able to train the pilots.

And adding another carrier doesnt really fix the problem - the only way you get a 19 percent hit rate is if some of the Okha carriers went down with them still attached. If all 100 launched as you described you are going to get a lot more than 19 hits - even asssuming 25 percent failed to ignite that leaves you with 75 successful launches. The US jets were still fighting the fighters and the conventional bombers so not many could have engaged. And while the carriers may have radar guided AA the merchies and transports wouldnt - so they would have been much harder hit.

As for the conventional attack - the Japanese have a long history of suicide attacks during conventional attacks - i.e. USS Hornet for instance. Any damaged plane most likely would have gone kamikaze - they would have known they werent getting home - not against jets.

Plus - where are the sucide boats and kaiten that were based at Okinawa - they would have hit the invasion force during the landing and bombardment phase - and they are absent.

Also more fighters at Okinawa mean more US fighters lost - so that extra carrier may not mean that much.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

Olefin, the rocket-bombs have only been under development since late 1948, with actual production not starting until Spring of 1949. So they're pretty new. And most, if not all, of the pilots for them are poorly trained, probably people who couldn't make it as real pilots, or perhaps very young volunteers, etc. Not exactly a highly trained group.
So, you have malfunctions. You have pilot errors. You have pilots simply missing their targets. You have a few being shot down by enemy fighters or flak.

And, again, I think you are under-playing how effective the Japanese attack was. Hell, if not for the atom bombs the U.S. task force would have had to withdraw, at least until the full 7th fleet arrived.

Also, about fleet movements. Note that the _7th fleet_ was spotted moving east of Iwo. The task force from the Philippines wasn't spotted at all until it was west of Okinawa. Those were two separate fleets obviously, each one spotted at different times.

The Japanese were very thrown off by the attack on Okinawa, they were totally convinced that the U.S. would move on Iwo first, as it did in OTL. This is a case where the USN out maneuvered the IJN on a grand scale. Hence, the lack of Japanese aircraft attacking from the Home Islands.(such attacks will certainly happen in future segments. Okinawa is going to be a quite nasty, and prolonged, battle)

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Unfortunately more changes are needed - more Japanese fighters at Okinawa from Iwo mean more in the attacking force - meaning the extra carrier only makes things back to where it was. More Japanese fighters and American fighters will be lost but the overall effect remains the same - the damage is still too light to the US force.

As for the conventional strike - one carrier and two cruisers lightly damaged? The surviving planes would have kamikazed after a failure like that and you know that Bobby. Heck the plane that put my grandfather's DD down off Okinawa was a dive bomber that missed with its bomb but then attacked again, damaged, and this time it didn’t miss - and it finished off his DD.

Plus if the AA is engaging the conventional planes that means the Okhas are most likely going to be ignored or missed - they are small targets in the confusion - meaning more hits by them as the flak gunners concentrate on the conventional attack until its too late to get the guns to target the incoming guided missiles.

That force would have been overwhelmed by an attack like that - especially with the huge American fighter losses (60 shot down means at least another 15-20 damaged most likely - and now there are more Japanese fighters in the incoming strike.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Even with the reasoning you give Bobby - planes from Kyushu and Honshu - planes dedicated to defending Iwo - could have been on station at Okinawa within a few hours. So you would have an American fleet with over half its fighters gone (if not more) being attacked by waves of conventional and kamikaze aircraft within a few hours to a day at most. (Since its basically the same air distance, if not less, to get to Okinawa from Japan as it is to get to Iwo). Thus even if they were out of position initially by the time of the big airstrike the Kyushu and Honshu planes would have been ready.

That’s why the US didn’t go after Okinawa until they had just about every carrier they could scrape up off its shores. Doesn’t matter if its three or four carriers - anything less than seven or eight carriers in that task force spells most of the troopships sunk and several carriers lying next to them on the seabed. They lose 60 planes plus another 15 or so damaged fighters in the furball - and that doesn’t count fighters lost to the attack planes and to their own flak. That barely leaves them enough to put up a 15 -20 plane CAP over the entire force with another 10 maybe on alert at any one time - and even those figures are liberal.

The Death Ride, by comparison, gives the US enough aircraft to easily parry the Japanese blow, have enough fighters left afterward for an effective screen and still attack and sink that fleet.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Bobby the first use of those weapons should be, if anything more deadly - because the US wouldnt know how to deal with them.

Now any force of bombers approaching will get swarmed - and once those seven carriers get there I doubt a single Japanese Okha gets launched.

Heck the flak wouldnt have even opened fire on the Okhas most likely till the first of them hit - the radar directors would have seen the Japanese planes turning around and leaving and may have not even spotted the Okhas - or figured they salvoed their bombs to get away. They would have been merrily ripping bombers out of the sky - until the first Okhas got there and blasted into the carrier. And by then it would have been too late.

Golladay said...

When do we get a new North Africa, Med, and ME map.

I want to see where everyone is now before we start killing them off again.

Anonymous said...

By the way - since when is one carrier out of action, one troopship, a few supply ships and one destroyer sunk considered serious damage? Heck the US took worse than that on any one of over a dozen days at Okinawa in OTL - and the word serious damage wasnt applied there.

While the Marines lost a lot of men in that one ship the fleet basically is intact - that is hardly serious damage.

Anonymous said...

Caracalla here....

It looks like the Russian nut is becoming harder to smash. I'm beginning to think that the Germans are going to have a harder time knocking Russia out. Even when they do Western Russia will be a vast wastland.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

Olefin, those losses are heavy when you consider they occurred over the course of just a couple days.
Note that the Japanese still have lots more K-24's on Okinawa, many hidden away underground while waiting to be launched from well concealed launch stands. These, used in coordination with attacks coming in from the Home Islands, are bound to do more damage still. We're talking about much higher losses than those from OTL over the course of the whole battle for Okinawa.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

79 ships sunk and scrapped,
763 aircraft destroyed
http://www.okinawakamikazes.com/massAttacks.html

Using this estimate brings the total U.S. Navy casualties for the entire Okinawa operation to over twelve thousand -- 5450 killed and 6800 wounded.
USN losses at Okinawa were 36 ships lost and 368 damaged.

So please explain to me Bobby - how is one carrier crippled, one carrier with minor damage, two cruisers with minor damage, 60 fighters shot down, one troopship lost, one destroyer lost and several supply ships sunk worse than the loss of 763 aircraft and 36 ships that were sunk including over a dozen destroyers and destroyer escorts and several carriers being damaged so badly they had to be sent home to be repaired?

Anonymous said...

Caracalla here....

I think we all need to realize that this is Bobby's story and he can write it how he wants. Calm down Olefin my friend.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - have always been calmed down - if Bobby wants to put up a historical reality story then it needs to have a basis in reality - and having the planes in Kyushu and Honshu sit there while Okinawa gets pounded has no basis in reality. Neither does sending out BB's and CV's in one group for the death ride - why didnt the Japanese just drain their fuel oil for subs and take the guns off for coastal batteries?

Sending them out in one group only lets the US take them all out in one group - it basically was target practice. Surprised they didnt paint big red targets on them.

Have studied military history and been in the military - and if the Japanese had a plan I cant figure it out - beyond lets all go out and get massacred. No decoy group, no way to lure the US fleet close enough to give their BB's a hope in heck of engaging, and the final battle fought so far out that I still dont know where the Japanese got the fuel to even get there let alone fight there.

And the biggest thing that is unrealistic - have the suicide attackers and conventional force take out half or more of the fighter cover for the fleet - then do nothing about it while they cruise up and invade Okinawa - with what Bobby has told me is either two or one Marine Divisions.

Supposedly the plan was to crush them between the fleet and land based air cover - then where the heck are the planes from Japan??

I know this is an alternate reality - but just when did the Japanese get this dumb?

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

Olefin, I looked into this deeper and I still feel that the initial battle I portrayed at Okinawa was perfectly plausible. The part of the OTL Battle of Okinawa that most closely relates to the initial ATL battle is the first mass air attack...

"The first mass attack by 376 kamikaze suicide planes and 341 other planes began April 6, 1945. Six American ships were sunk -- LST 447, two victory ships -- HOBBS VICTORY and LOGAN VICTORY and three destroyers. -- COLHOUN, DD 801, BUSH , DD 529 and EMMONS, DD 457."

Note that this is actually somewhat similar to the losses that I portrayed in the ATL initial battle. In the real life battle 6 ships were sunk in the first big attack, and over a dozen damaged. In the ATL first attack the U.S. losses looked like this...

1 carrier moderately damaged
1 carrier crippled
2 cruisers moderately damaged
1 troop transport ship sunk
4 supply ships sunk
1 destroyer sunk

So, 6 ships sunk.(same number as the OTL first battle) 4 other ships moderately to heavily damaged, including two carriers and two cruisers. The lower number of damaged ships can be explained by different targeting priorities, the Japanese were going primarily after the carriers, cruisers and supply ships and not so much after the destroyers, and the larger ships are harder to sink.

Also, note that the next day in the ATL the U.S. task force took the following losses to K-24 kamikaze rocket bombs while it was landing the Marines...

1 supply ship sunk
3 cruisers moderately damaged
4 destroyers moderately to heavily damaged

If you add these losses to the losses in the initial attack then the losses start to roughly match the losses from the first battle in OTL, which is sheer coincidence since I didn't study the OTL battle closely before writing my initial Okinawa battle.

As for the second big battle, well yes that was a disaster for the Japanese and they acted pretty stupidly in making the death run...but they did things equally as stupid in OTL

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

Also, regarding the initial Japanese plan.

Their original big plan was to have the combined fleet sit north of Iwo. When the U.S. fleet began approach Iwo for the invasion then combined fleet was to launch everything it had for a large carrier attack that would take place in coordination with a large bomber and K-24 rocket attack from Iwo itself.
If the 7th fleet moved towards Okinawa then they would do basically the same thing, but at Okinawa instead.
The U.S. through off this plan by feinting towards Iwo and getting the combined fleet to commit to defending Iwo. Once the Japanese realized what was happening it was too late for their carefully layed plans...two seperate U.S. fleets were making for Okinawa and the combined fleet was forced to chase the bigger of them, and they improvised, settling for attempting a classic carrier engagement and not realizing just how outclassed they were. Besides, the Japanese weren't always well know for improvising in these kinds of big naval engagements when things weren't going right.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

The only thing the Japanese did that I consider "dumb" was the death run, but how was it any dumber than what they did in OTL?

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - sorry but no way Bobby. That attack was in a situation where the US had huge numbers of fighters up and the kamikazes only got thru in small numbers - the ships you mentioned were mostly radar pickets that got hit because they were left exposed and unprotected.

Here the US fighter screen got overwhelmed and large numbers of attackers go thru - to the point the bombers did something that didnt happen once in OTL - an entire Ohka attack was launched without one bomber being lost. All 100 of them got launched.

And a conventional attack with old planes in the teeth of radar guided AA and jets only took 50 percent casualties - that alone shows that US fighter cover broke down totally.

Yet losses are light - very few ships sunk considering that situation. Then the Japanese - knowing that American air cover has broken down and returning to tell the tale - do nothing. No follow up attack, no huge waves of airplanes taking advantage of the situation so that the US 7th Fleet has to disengage to save the other fleet. They just sit there because a week before the US didnt hit Iwo?

Sorry its supposed to be an alternate reality - but no attack at all for over a week because the Americans attacked the wrong target? I can understand if they thought it would be China and it was Okinawa - but Iwo and Okinawa are equidistant - any plane tasked to defend Iwo can defend Okinawa.

Sorry but that three or four carrier task force should have been running for its life after huge Japanese followup attacks out of Kyushu and Honshu - you know the ones that never happened?

That makes the story real - them just sitting there and doing nothing for over a week is something out of Star Trek Deep Space Nine where the Jemadar fleet in the wormhole just disappears or where the cartoonist dies and saves Arthur from the vorpal bunny.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - if you are referring to Leyte Gulf - that plan worked in OTL - the only reason it didnt was that Kurita lost his nerve and didnt go into the Gulf and butcher the US invasion force.

That is what the Japanese are doing here - if you saw this as the ATL version of the Yamato run then I would agree - but that was nothing more than throwing away the ship.

If that is what the Japanese did then they were stupid in the extreme - much dumber than in OTL -Yamato only had enough fuel for a one way trip - are you saying that the IJN sent those ships purposely on a one way trip?

Anonymous said...

DerekP here

Olefin - it's Bobby's story.

Chill.

You may have strong opinions but so do others including Bobby

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Think Leyte Gulf and not Ten-Go. Ten-Go only happened because they were out of fuel, had only a few ships left and had nothing left to lose since they had no fleet left.

Here they still have a fleet - a for real fleet that while reduced still is bigger than what Germany or Italy has. If they are going to die its going to be done intelligently - and not by trying to relive the glory days or sending BB's out to chase fast carriers with no air cover.

Kurita ran for his life and saved his force after Leyte Gulf - he didnt try to close with Halsey - he knew that was death. There is no way that those BB captains would have caught the 7th fleet and they knew it - but if they had sent the CV to take on 7th fleet and the BB to take on the Okinawa invasion fleet then maybe they would have gotten at least a few ships into gun range - after all they are chasing transports at 15 knots, not CV moving at 30+ knots.

But trying to run down Exeter's with BB's in a stern chase - they would have never gotten within a 100 miles and they would have known that.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

As for why the Japanese didn't launch a big counter-strike right away to take advantage of the weakened task force west of Okinawa...the atomic bombs going off on air fields on Okinawa and Iwo might have put a dent on any such plans.

I suppose they could have thrown together a hasty attack from out of the Home Islands but they weren't prepared to do this, it wasn't part of their plan to defend the islands. They always planned to hold off on attacks from the Home Islands until after the U.S. was actually invading Iwo, at which point they'd be more vulnerable to incoming attacks.
Imagine the confusion the Japanese High Command would be experiencing, with Iwo being nuked and then Okinawa being nuked and invaded, and the naval clashes occurring around Okinawa, etc.

Could things have gone differently, yes? Is my version of what did happen total fantasy? Absolutely not IMHO

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Sorry Essex class - must not post while trying to write email on a work project at same time.

CJ said...

1)Fate of Iwo Jima Air Group: It's a shorter trip to Okinawa than to Tokyo? I don't think so Olefin. At no point is the trip from Iwo Jima to Okinawa less than about 820 miles. Numerous parts of Kyushu, Shikoku, and Honshu are closer that that. You are seriously off on this one.

2)US Carrier Airwings: For starters, it would be an error to characterize this only in terms of number of squadrons. Squadron size and airwing composition did fluctuate in OTL. By OTL 1945 the fighter compliment of an Essex class carrier had doubled why the size of the VT & VB squadrons shrank. Now while I cannot provide an OTL example of where a USN CV landed all of its attack birds, that doesn't mean it couldn't be done. Under the circumstances here, it's not impossible that the attack squadrons were temporarily landed or transfered to CVEs and that fighter squadrons from the CVEs or even Marine fighter squadrons came aboard in their place for the early phases of this operation. I'm not saying it did happen, I'm just saying it shouldn't be ruled out.
I also don't think we should rule out land-based fighter cover from the Sakishima Islands.In fact given the short range, I'd be surprised if there wasn't.

3)Pearl Harbor Stuff: I NEVER told him that the Pearl Harbor segment had to be re-written. If anything I was the one of the people saying "Hmm, I wonder" and digging up stuff to support Bobby. I demand a retraction & public apology.

4)Singapore: OK, it's not like they're going anywhere.

5)Insert RM/KM/IJN TF: Well that would really depend in large part on how much of the land-based air was trained & equipped for anti-shipping operations. And I'd also factor in the reliability of weapons such as the BAT. And off course the quality of the AAA is a factor. So, I might accept it.

6)US Nukes: Well for starters "groundburst" and "contact" aren't synonymous. Technically a groundburst is when the fireball touches the ground. Secondly, given how fast the US has gone from "The Gadget" to the Mk.III, I don't have that much trouble buying that they have developed a contact fuse.

7)Kamikaze Stuff: Given that in OTL Kamikaze effectiveness declined as pilot quality dropped, we should look at present pilot quality in the IJNAF & IJAAF. The IJNAF seems to have been chewed up as badly as in OTL, maybe a little worse. The IJAAF is probably much worse off given the extended land campaign in Southeast Asia, China, and then when the VVS jumped in. I get the feeling that the air defense forces have the cream of whatever is left. The next tier down would be the conventional attack units, and then the Kamikazes. I also agree with Bobby that the conventional attack units aren't likely to have gone Kamikaze this early. Later on yes, but not yet. And just because the Kaiten & Q-boats haven't beenmentioned doesn't mean that haven't done anything. But since we're on the topic of Q-boats, or Renraku-tei as they Japanese called them, it's worth mentioning that most of them were caught by patrols of PT boats or alert shipboard defenses.

I'd also remind you AGAIN, Olefin, that those loss figures from Okinawa in OTL were over a FIVE MONTH period.

8)Battle of Leyte Gulf: Olefin, I suppose the fact that Kurita had lost tactical control of his force had nothing to do with it? You can toss of Leyte Gulf all you want to, the circumstances here were quite different especially regarding USN command arrangements.

9)IJN Death Ride: They were at sea and had the fuel, so they tried to seek out and engage the enemy as an element of a larger plan. How is that stupid? If they had returned to port they may not have had enough fuel fort another sortie. Their admirals could well have committed suicide and the Army would have taken the guns from the ships and sent the crews to form SNLF units. Even if it was a chase in vain, they may have hoped that they could make it back to under friendly land-based air cover.

SWFcane said...

In the end its Bobbys story, so no need to get all up in arms... I cannot wait for the next segment... The rest of the fight for Okinawa should be INTENSE, the Middle East about to revolt, the Russians digging in, and the coming battles between the US ans Germany... CANT WAIT!!!

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - I never said that CJ - I said that Tokyo was only about 620 miles away - so if they can circle for hours then they can get home. Try reading what I put up next time.

As for Pearl Harbor - I was told at the time that you, CT and Trendel led the charge to get the Pearl Harbor story rewritten. And demanding a retraction and apology will get you nothing. However if that is not the true facts that I was told then I do apologize.

Bobby specifically says carrier aircraft were lost by the way - no land based air cover of any kind.

Anonymous said...

Its bobby's story so he can write it any way he wants. He is heck of a writer and yet some of you act like your his personal critique person. If you want to complain then do it somewhere else.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here -actually this is where we are supposed to complain anonymous - how about at least signing your name?

Anonymous said...

DanielJM here:

I'll cover Pearl since I call the way it is presented in Bobby's story impossible. Large forces of aircraft cannot fly under RADAR when over water. It simply does not work that way. I suggested Bobby change it some time ago, long before you showed up in the forums, and his answer was, as I recall, that it looked like I was right and he would look into fixing it if he ever moved to publish the story professionally. I suggested that he have the RADAR down for repairs or an upgrade, heightening the dramatic irony of the Japanese attacking then. I do not recall if Bobby ever responded to that.

The other revision B.O. (Before Olefin) was to the attack on the Panama Canal. It contained a number of small errors, such as the Lady Lex being small enough to sink in the lock and undergoing launch drills while in the Canal. After these were pointed out, Bobby rewrote the relevant bits.

No one, except you, has ever demanded a rewrite. I am not demanding one on the Egypt situation, which I feel is developing in an unrealistic fashion, nor do I demand one on the Sweden situation. I do want to know why the Soviets are pulling back to a longer front and much worse defensive terrain if the goal is to save manpower.

As to the atomics: altimeter fused devices are perfectly capable of a ground burst. The possible problem is that changes in atmospheric conditions can lead to the device detonating at a slightly different altitude than you intended. If you set it for a true ground burst, you might get it to go off 50' above the ground or to crash into the ground without detonation. So a ground burst in this case is likely 100 feet or so above the ground. A more technically correct term would be "low altitude air burst."

The Kamikaze attack seems about right to me. The Japanese are never going to get an air launch like that again. Technology has advanced that Kamikaze is of limited use, even at high speeds. A perfect launch on an unsuspecting foe with an untested tactic should work out to about what Bobby has. With great luck a little better, with lousy luck a lot worse. Other than a future lucky strike, this is going to be the high water mark.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Actually CJ Leyte Gulf is exactly what this is about - this battle is not the Ten-Go battle - but it became that when Bobby had the BB try to engage the 7th fleet instead of running for home. What gets me is that the Japanese would have known that a carrier battle with the US was the height of stupidity - they got their butts kicked at Formosa a year ago - now they think that they can take on a jet carrier fleet that is twice their size with prop planes flown by half trained pilots?

Not unless there was a heck of a lot of sake involved.

The whole fleet battle smells - for one it was supposed to be a combined fleet/ground based air battle near Iwo. Ok then Iwo gets nuked. Then Bobby says that there werent many planes at Iwo anyway. So where are the ground planes he is talking about - well obviously that means the planes based in Japan if Iwo doesnt have many planes.

Ok then the battle is going to be at Okinawa instead. The ground based air there does its thing and hurts one fleet but then gets nuked. So where is the ground component that was going to be used at Iwo - i.e. the air forces based in Japan? They sit on the ground and never take off - result not only does the fleet get its butt kicked but Okinawa is now wide open for an invasion by a shoestring fleet of three carriers, some cruisers and one or at most two Marine divisions?

So again - why did air forces that were ready to go to be used if the US hit Iwo not available over a week later to be used when the US hit Okinawa - an island that is closer to Japan than Iwo?

And keep in mind - the US in OTL hit Okinawa with over 40 carriers, a dozen BB, dozens of cruisers and DD's and 150,000 men - and still had to fight for months. Now they didnt have nukes - but the defence of Okinawa really didnt have anything to do with those airfields that got hit anyway - in OTL those fields fell the first day.

And no use of nerve gas or suicide boats or kaitens on the invasion? You dont keep those in reserve for the followup - you use those immediately - you dont want the soldiers or Marines to have their supply dumps, tanks, etc.. ashore when you use stuff like that - you want that stuff sunk on the water and the nerve gas hitting them when any replacement cartidges for their masks are still on board some ship that hopefully is now sitting on the seabed.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - actually Daniel the only rewrite I demanded was at Kiev - and was backed up by a lot of guys who couldnt understand why 250,000 men would surrender when it meant certain death - and Bobby gave the details that answered us all. At the Madeiras no one demanded a rewrite - we pointed out - correctly that if you dont take them then the Canaries force is in a noose from day one - and Bobby took one look at the map and agreed - and since it meant additional Italian and German ships and planes in the drink eventually I dont think you minded that.

And Bobby has said today that the kamikaze's would get more effective, not less. I actually agree with you Daniel - tech like the Okhas really only work right the first time as a surprise. There is no way, for instance, that the Americans would concentrate now on the fighter force and let any medium or large bombers get near them now - not after the big attack that almost cost them a carrier and cost them several thousand Marines.

Bobby seems to think the opposite - and I agree with you that he is incorrect in that. If anything the Okhas will be less effective since they will know be seen as a real threat - and I dont see any large scale bomber drop of them in the future succeeding.

Thats why only 19 hitting out of 100 successful drops makes no sense - there literally was no time in OTL where every Baka bomb that was carried got to the target area and was dropped. They were lucky if 2 out of 10 even got to be dropped let alone aimed themselves at a ship. So here where a 100 of them are deployed successfully there should be a lot more damage to the US fleet.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - really doesnt matter much Daniel - as long as Bobby lets this stand as is to me the Pacific campaign is no longer realistic. It jumped the shark when the Japanese air force stayed put and never sortied with a US task force practically begging to be sunk.

The US did something supremely dumb - they sent a 3 carrier force with only cruisers in support to invade Okinawa and got away with it. Thats not daring - thats just plain miitarily impossible if the Japanese had done anything except lay there and practically ask to get killed. That task force should have been buried in land based air forces out of the Home Islands the minute they got within range - and anyone who denies that doesnt know how many planes the Japanese still had even in Aug of 45 at Kyushu and Honshu that would have greated Operation Olympic.

That force should have had to run for its life and have the 7th Fleet save it - and then have the combined force kick the Japanese fleet in the teeth. Now that is realistic - plus the US 7th fleet would have been able to really blow the guts out of the air forces stationed on Kyushu while they were at it before they had to be tied to an invasion beach.

But as is - the update is great if you like to see the Japanese get their butts kicked but not if you want a realistic scenario. You can defend it if you like - but tell me any US commander who would have sent three carriers by themselves with one or two Marine divisions at most to do the initial invasion of Okinawa with no follow up forces and no army air support.

Anonymous said...

ctwaterman again

*Great Googly Moogly*

1. Oelfin take some Prosak :)

Ok - Im sorry Oelfin but this is the Ten-Go Operation on a much larger scale. The Japanese know the US has just nuked their Oil Production Litterally.

So what the Japanese Battle Ships and Carriers have left in there fuel bunkers is all they are going to get for the forseable future. They had to engage the US Fleet here and now or not at all. So they tried there best and discovered that the US had Bats, and Tinny Tims [12" Rockets with the same explosive warhead as a 500# Semi Armor Piercing Bomb] and lots and lots of Torpedoes and 1000 and 2000 Lb AP Bombs.

There is no point in crying over spilt milk at Okinawa. The Japanese did about the same as the opening days of OTL and hell the battle hasnt even really begun yet.

Anonymous said...

DanielJM

The smaller force is entirely in range of land based air cover from Formosa and mainland China. The Japanese were probably seeing traps everywhere once they realized they fell into one already. Someone says to throw the land based hammer at the new, smaller fleet. Someone else says that would be falling into a trap and use them to catch the other fleet. Things go round and round and, next thing you know, the battle is over and the land based air fleet has done nothing but drink saki every morning expecting to die.

Like CT said, the fleet has no choice to engage or return home and never set to sea again. Most fleets, especially a Japanese fleet raised on a steady diet of "Death Before Dishonor!" and the divinity of the Emperor are going to choose to seek battle than return to port.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - sorry CT and Daniel but knowing your feelings about the Axis in general somehow I dont think that had any problems with the update - in fact most likely you are thinking - boy why did Bobby have them have a carrier crippled - those kamikazes shouldnt have been able to do squat

So somehow I dont see you two really losing too much sleep over the Japanese fleet getting wiped out for no loss on the American side in the final fleet battle.

by the way CT its called Prozac - but dont worry - frankly after this update you wont have to worry too much about me - alternate realities have to be at least somewhat grounded in reality. And as I have said all day - having the Japanese Air Force sit this one out in their own back yard for over a week except for the planes based on Okinawa (or who moved there from Iwo) basically moved this update from reality to something else.

Might not be popular for saying that - but somehow I think if this was a battle in the Caribbean and the US fleet got slaughtered off Cuba while airplanes based in Florida and Georgia sat there and did nothing about it that you and Daniel might just say something about it to Bobby.

Course its just the Japs and they do stupid things in war - or at least some people think that.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - what gets me is the spectacle of the Japanese surface fleet trying to go after a carrier fleet with no air cover after they knew they had no chance in hell to so much as damage one lifeboat on one destroyer.

now lets analyze this - in WWII OTL Yamato and her companions were sent on Operation Ten-Go to go to Okinawa, beach themselves and act as naval artillery to fight the invasion - and if they hit any ships on the way that was good. In no way were they ever told to try to close and engage the carrier forces - because no one was crazy enough to think that an Essex class carrier task force would let themselves actually get into surface gun range of the Yamato.

Here somehow the captains of those ships apparently all thought they could somehow pull that off - so instead of running for home or running for Okinawa or just trying to evade they go after a fully alerted carrier fleet that knows where they are.

Now I have seen stupidity before in military circles - have studied such great military events as the Fetterman massacre, good old Custer, the Romans at Canae, and that classic of military planning the Somme campaign - but this has to take the cake as the single stupidest tactic in the history of warfare. Which is why I cant believe that anyone would think they would do it.

There is no way, no way in heck that those BB had any chance of ever getting into gun range of a carrier force that is faster than them, that had radar, night fighters, complete air superiority and knew exactly where they were. Now its one thing to personally committ suicide - or to crash your own plane into a carrier because you are mad you missed with your bomb. But its another to on purpose committ mass suicide and throw away the capital ships of your navy - the last ones still free to operate - with no hope of possibly damaging one enemy ship.

This wasnt the ATL version of Operation Ten-Go. This was criminal stupidity - and personally I cant believe that Bobby had the Japanese do this.

If any AfD or US commander did this - heck if any German, Russian or Italian commander did this - the howls would be so loud and varied that there would be 300 comments by now. But hey these are just Japs after all.

Bobby you are a better writer than this and you have done much better work than this. This isnt an insult - this is a flat out plea to really look at what you wrote and realize that no military commander could be this criminally stupid as the Japanese commanders are here. Not with the last naval force they have and in their own backyard.

This isnt Ten-Go. This makes Ten-Go look like child's play. Compared to this Ten-Go was a meticulously planned out maneuver.

So a fully rational Japanese admiral actually thought he could win a carrier fight with prop planes against a jet carrier task force that outnumbered him by several carriers? When with a huge amount of ground base air the year before in Formosa (including jets) they got their heads handed to them - ground based air that could have come from Japan but instead never sortied because they wont go until Okinawa is threatened?

Hmm lets see - if the Japanese fleet is totally destroyed then Okinawa is lost anyway - as is Korea, Sakhalin, China, the war - so explain to me again why not one Japanese plane from Kyushu or Honshu went to the aid of their last fleet which was well within their range while it was being butchered?

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

Olefin, I'm done defending myself on this. You've voiced your opinions. I've made some changes based partly on those, and explained why I think you are wrong about some of your other concerns.

Other people have also posted perfectly valid counter-points to your argument. I'm not going to beg for your approval, this time line/story is for everyone and not just for you. I frankly think its pretty petty how you are basically threatening to leave unless I change it to your specifications. Everyone here knows I have always been open and responsive to their opinions and people have respected my decision if I choose not to follow their suggestion.

If you can't respect that I have a different view of things and that the time line won't always go exactly how you think it should then there are plenty of other alternate histories out there to read; I doubt you'll find many where the author bends over backwards to respect your opinions on the time line as I have done.

I'm only posting this here, and not in an email, because you have chosen to continue bashing the segment on here and I felt I should say this here so people can see I'm defending myself

Anonymous said...

Oh, goody. Olefin is leaving, again. Any takers on how long it lasts this time?

If there was also a threatening fleet off New York and no one was sure which one was the real threat, I could buy it. I mean, the Germans held Panzers in reserve to deal with a threat to Calais, and that wasn't even a real threat. Arnim failed to properly support Rommel at Kasserine pass not allowing the latter's success to be fully exploited. Reserves can fail to be deployed for any number of reasons. History is replete with examples.

I'm sure you will just ignore said examples and come back with broad, baseless statements as if they were gospel truth and act stunned when people lack your blind faith and challenge your assertions. Or, maybe, just maybe mind you, we actually won't see him around again.

I say two weeks.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

I didn't intend my post to be an open invitation to mock and bash Olefin, or anyone else.

Personally, I have appreciated his enthusiasm and passion more often than not, its just that this time I think he's going too far and I had to push back a little.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - for probably the last time

Was going to send this as an email but since you put up your thoughts I will put up mine

You have written better than this Bobby - and you know it. You can deny it or say it sounds good as written - but that is a cop out pure and simple. If you really think that I would go on like this on a minor issue then you never really knew me or read what I have posted over the last couple of years. If you want to have the Pacific War over with then go out in style and have the US nuke the Japanese to death and make it believeable - have them do an all out B-34 raid with a dozen ground bursts in areas so that the fallout kills most of the Japanese population and ends it but good. That, at least, would make for good reading - and be right in line with the general slaughter here at SW.

But this criminal waste of their fleet is beneath you and you know it. This isnt Ten-Go - this whole operation is criminal stupidity and the US getting away with murder - this sounds like something Trendel would write. This is nothing more than a general appeal to all those who will remain Daniel and CT and others who just want to see the Axis get their butt kicked with minimal AfD casualties - or did you not notice already that Daniel said he is surprised the kamikazes even did the damage you said they did?

What next - 6 CV and one Marine division taking out the SAFB as Trendel used to propose?

Sorry if you take this as an insult. But this update of yours is the real insult - to your story and to the fans of ShatteredWorld. It started great with the Sakhalin raid - and then went downhill from there. Too bad we cant just open the door and see that is was a dream sequence - but if this is how it stands then count me out.

Have much better things to do than waste time on something that has clearly jumped the shark - and where the writer of it thinks an act of utter criminal military stupidity on the Japanese side makes perfect military sense - especially since they had plenty of warning about the two fleets, where they were and could have avoided the final battle - but went to their deaths anyway and threw away any chance of Japan holding on for any longer than a month or two.

At least you wont have to worry about a japanese a-bomb - there is no way they see 1950 now let alone 1951.

If this update stands as written then when the board comes up please remove my profile - I want nothing more to do with SW as a poster or on the wiki.

I have respected your opinions here before - and this is your story after all. So if I have this vehement a disagreement that probably shows just how much this update makes no sense.

Have had a lot of fun here and it was enjoyable - but frankly its getting old to be the Daniel's, CT's and CJ's whipping boy. And this Death Ride of the Japanese which should be called "The Shooting Gallery" just takes the cake.

But no matter - you have decided and that is how it is. Wish you good luck and as you say there are plenty of other alternate histories out there.

Olefin

P.S. Have someone tell Trendel he can come back now on the board since I wont be around anymore to ruin it for him. I bet he will be overjoyed.

P.P.S. As this is apparently goodbye - goodbye everyone and thanks for all the fish! (with apologies to Douglas Adams)

oh and to the jerk who didnt sign his name about me leaving - but who I bet is Trendel - f you, f you very much

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

Oh also, can we stop the totally anonymous postings? At least put a name in the body of the message. Makes it easier to engage in a discussion,

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - Sorry forgot to say one last thing

Demon, Roel, Belle, Count, Trek, Golloday and others - its been an honor and a pleasure

CJ - always respected your naval knowledge

CT - even though you were a pain in the butt you were always a worthy opponent

Trendel - and I know you are here - what I would want to say to you isnt appropriate for this board - but lets just say with a red hot poker - and considering the comments you made about my wife Daniel that goes double for you

Bobby - wish you all the luck in the future. Maybe one day you will see what I was saying - maybe not. Either way no one was trying to push you around - maybe wake you up is a better way to say it.

See you all later

David (ex-Olefin)

YBS said...

Hmmm... since nobody is talking about the situation in China, let me give it a shot.

The communist position in Northern CHina is close to untenable. Nationalist forces are close to the historic city of Tai Yuan. This city effectively serves as the Gate to beijing. Any student if Chines histroy can tell you that if an army is trying to invade Beijing and Taiyaun is lost, then Beijing is effectively lost.

Tai Yuan holds such strategic weight because of its pivitol location between two mountain ranges and given US armor and air support, nomatter how heavily fortified Tai Yuan may be, it will fall. Between Tai Yaun and Beijing lies no terrain worth defending and when the nationalist reached beijing, Shan Hai Guan, the historic citadel that separates Manchuria and CHina proper, will be as good as lost. This basically divides the Chicomms from their soviet suppliers and if civil war in CHina serves any indicator, many communist generals are bound to defect with their armies.

Anonymous said...

ctwaterman again

Oelfin - while my opinion has always been that given the Logistical circumstances of the war and the repeated mistakes the Germans made that the end result is and was predetermined. I fully expect the US to take casualties at and durring the Battle of Okinawa I actually expected them to be overall highter then OTL but certainly not to the point where the Japanese are going to hold the Island.

As for the Japanese Fleet - actually I did expect them to get slaughtered. They didnt have enough aircraft and trained pilot to have 4 fully loaded aircraft carriers and they were going up against the US 7th Fleet with a 3 to 1 advantage in air power. Also up until this point In Bobby ATL a Battle Ship at sea had not been sunk solely by Carrier or Land Based Air Power. Unfortunately for the Japanese it now has happened on a very large scale.

As for comparing Ten Go and Leyte Gulf I would say this could very well be the results of Leyte Gulf as well. Leyte Gulf the entire Campaign was 4 Seperate Battles on different days. In one Battle Halsey mauled the Japanese Fleet sinking the Musashi and damaging the Yamato and other ships. The Next battles are Halsey going off as his orders indicated the main Japanese threat the Carriers and sinking a large number of them. Then the Japanese tried to come through Surigao Stait against 6 US Battle Ships.

Anyway the Battles are Surigao Strait, Palawan Passage, Suliban Sea, and Cape Engano and the Japanese lost 3 Battle Ships, 8 Cruisers, 4 more Cruiser Badly Damaged, 12 Destroyers, and 4 Carriers. The US Lost USS Princeton [CVL] 2 CVE, 2 Destroyers and 1 Destroyer Escort.

I dont know what people want to say but the Battle of Leyte Gulf all parts of it were an unmitigate disaster for the Japanese. Only luck kept it from being alot worse as Halsey was within 40 miles of bringing all the criples of the Norther Force under the Guns of his fast battle ships when he was recalled to deal with a force that was already retreating.

PS: Oelfin sorry to see you go now whom will I argue with... :)

lordroel said...

A hope NOT me ctwaterman as i am a noob in debating the things you debate about but i still want to now if these where only main carriers and hade the light carrier to escort them.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - thought about it last night and wanted to leave you this as my goodbye present - here you go


Update with the changes I was suggesting to Bobby - since apparently he is too concerned about being pushed around to think thru what I was saying here is how it would have sounded if he had thought out what I was saying. As its my last effort I hope you enjoy it.

July 28th 1949

The Battle of the East China Sea begins as Japanese aircraft attack the large U.S. task force moving in from the west of Okinawa. Japanese propeller and jet fighters tear into a swarm of U.S. carrier jet and propeller fighters, engaging in an epic air clash in which some 145 Japanese fighters are downed in exchange for roughly 75 U.S. carrier fighters, with more fighters putting down damaged or with wounded pilots. While the fighters engage in their epic clash, the Japanese launch a two-pronged assault on the U.S. task force itself. Several waves of aging, conventional, Japanese level bombers, dive bombers, and torpedo bombers attack the four carriers in the task force and their supporting cruisers and destroyers, while medium and heavy bombers drop nearly 100 K-24 kamikaze rocket bombs. While the conventional Japanese bombers manage to inflict moderate damage on one carrier, a couple of cruisers and one destroyer while losing nearly half their number, the K-24's are more successful. Of the nearly 100 K-24's deployed against the U.S. task force, 28 find a target while the rest either malfunction, miss their targets, or are shot down by flak and enemy jet fighters. The 28 kamikaze rocket-bombs which do find a target inflict serious losses on the U.S. task force - sinking a carrier (one of the last pre-Essex carriers), damaging another moderately and sinking a troop transport with the loss of all hands including thousands of Marines, and sinking several other transports and a pair of destroyers. The heavy loss of fighters drastically reduces the CAP available to protect the task force.

Several hours after the air clashes and attacks on the U.S. task force, a B-34 force passes over Okinawa and drops two atomic bombs. Both 40 kiloton devices are air burst over air fields where most of the Japanese aircraft that survived the Battle of the East China Sea are wiped out (except for the medium and heavy bombers which flew from bases in Kyushu) along with the air fields themselves and surrounding depots and troop concentrations

July 29, 1949

The reports from the survivors of the raid, particularily the ones telling of the heavy fighter losses, convince the Japanese to go for broke. A large force of conventional prop aircraft are launched from Japan to attack the task force nearing Okinawa. The US carriers put up their remaining fighters but they are overwhelmed by the sheer size of the attack as over 350 bombers, torpedo bombers and fighters of various types are in the raid. The US loses another 40 fighters and the Japanese lose over 200 aircraft. However the raid has been deadly - the damaged Essex class carrier is sunk as is a heavy cruiser, a destroyer and four more supply ships as well as one tank landing craft. In addition another troop transport is hit with heavy loss of life but stays afloat. Another carrier is damaged and cannot launch or retrieve aircraft along with another cruiser and destroyer. The commander of the task force has no choice but to withdraw and yell for air cover from the 7th and Army Air out of China and Formosa.

August 1, 1949 (following section removed)
After several days of carrier air attacks on coastal gun batteries and air facilities not wiped out in the two atomic bombings, U.S. marines come ashore on the northern part of Okinawa. The landings, preceded by massive conventional, napalm, and mustard gas bombardments by air forces and cruisers off shore, succeed in securing several strong beach heads although Japanese resistance is fierce. In the mid-afternoon hours Japanese forces surprise the U.S. task force with several successive waves of Kamikaze attacks. The K-24 kamikaze rocket-bombs, launched from hardened stands around the northern part of the island, streak into the U.S. task force in the waters off the island, sinking another supply ship and damaging several cruisers and destroyers.

Added

More air attacks out of Japan follow with the Japanese losing 350 more aircraft to Army fighters and 7th Fleet fighters retasked to defend the other task force. While some planes do penetrate they only do minor damage - one more cruiser is damaged lightly as is a destroyer. The only loss is to a damaged bomber that crashes into a destroyer with its bombs onboard and blows it in half. Forty Army fighters and 10 more from 7th fleet are lost in the effort, with many of the Army losses being planes the run out of fuel or crash due to damage on the way back.

After seeing the severe losses they are taking the Japanese call off the air strikes. Studying reports from the survivors convinces them that suicide attacks are the only really effective way of engaging the Americans - even when planes do penetrate the American air defences very few return thru them after attacking.

August 2nd 1949

In its last major engagement of the Second World War, the Japanese Navy's combined fleet engages the U.S. 7th fleet several hundred kilometers southeast of Okinawa in the Battle of the Northern Philippine Sea. The battle begins with both sides launching large carrier attack forces. The Japanese aircraft, the last fleet air strength that the Japanese possess, are outnumbered and largely cut to pieces by American carrier fighters. Some Japanese bombers do make it through and convinced that they wont get home they all make suicide attacks, moderately damaging a battleship, a carrier and one battlecruiser. The American carrier attack is devastatingly effective, cutting through a vastly out-numbered Japanese carrier fighter force to sink three of the four remaining Japanese fleet carriers and several lesser ships as well. (The only reason a carrier survives is the planes detached to protect the second task force). Less than 40 Japanese aircraft remain at the end of the day. However this force was sent out to die - the real effort is the surface portion of the Japanese fleet which changed course two days ago to try to intercept the 7th fleet.

The surface portion of the Japanese fleet is found by the returning strike only 120 miles from the US 7th Fleet. Halsey is detached with the battle fleet to intercept them while a second air strike is quickly prepped and launched. This strike damages several Japanese ships, sinks one older battleship and two heavy cruisers.

August 3rd, 1949

In a night engagement the last surface battle of the Pacific War is fought between the US battle line and the Japanese one. The US is clearly the victor at the end - every Japanese battleship except one and every heavy cruiser is sunk as are most of the smaller ships. Only one Yamato BB, three light cruisers and seven destroyers manage to escape, all damaged to one extent or another. The US loses one BB - the South Dakota, the battlecruiser Guam, the heavy cruiser Indianapolis and four destroyers with several other ships being damaged to one degree or another. The most striking fight was the USS Montana versus the last Super Yamato BB - hit five times by the Yamato the Montana hit her adversary eighteen times in 10 minutes with the Super Yamato finally exploding and sinking.

Swarming U.S. carrier aircraft sink virtually the entire remaining Japanese combined fleet, including the last battleship and carrier as well as the last heavy cruiser, one light cruiser and five destroyers, losing only 12 aircaft in the strikes. The pathetic remnants of the Japanese surface fleet have no choice but to turn towards the Home Islands where they may be used for scrap metal or incorporated into coastal defenses. The grand U.S. feint towards Iwo Jima and the pincer movement on Okinawa has been a brilliant success for the USN despite the heavy losses to kamikaze rockets and the air strikes off the coast of Okinawa, throwing the carefully crafted Japanese "decisive battle" plans into chaos and forcing them to fight on the USN's terms. In a week of fighting, the remaining strength of the Japanese navy has been destroyed;Iwo Jima has been turned into a island of the dead, of little use to anyone; and Okinawa has been nuked with most of its air power destroyed. The US 7th fleet is now closing with the second task force and by the end of the day is already conducting strikes against Okinawa. The battle line is preparing to bombard the coast and make sure the Marines don’t get a hot reception.

The last Japanese gasp hurt the US badly but the losses will be quickly made up. The rocket kamikaze threat is now a known threat that will be planned for and countermeasures are already being worked on. On the Japanese side, with their fleet gone and the conventional attacks being shown to be ineffective the decision has been made - all future air assaults on the USN will have a kamikaze component. Commanders are instructed to tell their men that if they feel they cannot escape they are to crash their planes into the ships instead of trying to return to base. No more repairs will be done to surface ships - all effort will be put into submarines, kaitens, and suicide boats and work at the last major functioning shipyard on two new carriers is suspended permanently.

In the coming weeks U.S. sailors will call this week "The Huge Pacific Week" - but they will also remember this as the week the Divine Wind began to blow.

There you go guys - and Belle if you are reading this. Hope you enjoyed it. That is what I was talking about Bobby - it shows a determined, intelligent Japan fighting to the end with brains, taking advantage of a US mistake (the four carrier task force invasion of Okinawa) to inflict a big hit on the US and in the confusion get their surface fleet into position for a last fight - one where they all go down but where they take a few ships with them. In no way is this an American defeat - and all it does is delay the invasion of Okinawa by about a week at most. The Japanese take a big hit in land based aircraft and make the fateful decision to initiate the Divine Wind due to the huge losses for little gain they are taking in conventional attacks. The US loses one pre-Essex and one Essex carrier and has two more moderately damaged and loses two major capitol ships - and gives the Battle Line geeks (come on CJ put up that hand there) one last real fight.

And Okinawa still ends up nuked, Iwo ends up dead and the Japanese fleet ends up dead - and the US realizes that maybe the war isnt over yet in the Pacific because of the losses.

Think about it - but if the update stands as it is consider this my goodbye present to you all.

Bye

David (ex-Olefin)

Anonymous said...

DerekP

But it's Bobby's story..................

Anonymous said...

Where did Olefin say it wasnt Bobby's story Derek? Jeez....

Anonymous said...

Another anon here:

Well him rewriting it himself and posting it kinda says it all...

SWFcane said...

Do y'all always fight like this... When the AUTHOR has to come on the board and tell people to chill its gotten out of hand... You guys got somethign really cool going here, don't ruin it for others because you have sand in your vag...

CJ said...

To SWFCANE,

No, we don't always fight like this. I assure you this is not the norm. While we often engage in heated debate, it's usually friendly.

As I said somewhere above, the historical norm was that we'd look at something that had us scratching our heads, say "Hmm, I wonder?" and go do some research. If we had a problem, we'd be be specific and say "on XYZ date ABC did MNO, did you mean they did PQR?" That and technical points were the kind of things we'd bring to Bobby's attention. More often than not, all that was needed was for Bobby to clarify the issue or add a little bit of detail so that we better understood how Bobby saw the issue in his head. And sometimes it's just a little typo. Bobby's always been very open to those things being pointed out. Asking for vast re-writes and hounding Bobby is a relatively recent development.

Shattered World has never been a hyper-detailed timeline and I don't believe that Bobby has ever intended it to be so. (If you want a hyper-detailed timeline, go read "France Fights On".)

Anonymous said...

David here

Sorry but have to say this - Bobby you talk about how there have been people putting up opinions supporting your arguments here on the board - and there have been - lets summarize

CJ - who put up repeated posts about how Japan is starving and cant hold out for long no matter what

Then there is CT, Daniel and Trendel - and I know its you buddy - all of whom have argued repeatedly for having the US use rice blast and nukes to committ genocide in Japan.

These are the people who you choose to counter my arguments and back your update?

Thats like Nero turning to the people butchering the Christians and asking them if he was being too hard on Peter and Paul.

As for me putting up my version of the update - all that is is summarizing my argument and showing what it could have looked like if it wasnt out to please the "lets kill off all the Japs and make it quick" crowd.

Oh and SWFcane - yes this is exactly what goes on here and on the board when its up - which is why I am getting fed up with it - argue for intelligent changes to a post that makes the Japanese look criminally stupid and see where it gets you.

A good nights sleep and I am even more sure now about why this update just reeks of appeasement of the "kill Japan" crowd.

So if we go with what is popular with the board Bobby when does the US use the rice blast and kill off 80 million Japanese and begin the transformation of the US into a country that Stalin would be proud of?

I hope you dont - because that would take the great story that you have written and turn it into some alternate world snuff fantasy that I really would hate to think I had any part in ever.

David

CJ said...

To Olefin,
Best of luck.

To CT,
Don't worry, I'll argue with you :) It'll be just like the old days!

Anonymous said...

The anonymous post was me. Sorry for not putting my name in, it was late at night and I thought I had included it.

And when did I insult Olefin's wife? I think she must be a saint.

Now my opinion of Olefin, a guy who claimed some sort of aerospace degree and then claimed ballistic missiles work by being shot straight up and the rotation of the earth causes them to drop on their target, that is known well enough and bears no repeating here. I hope he enjoyed his attempt at martyrdom here and wish him well. Though I do have to turn down his final proposals to me and wonder if his wife knows about these proclivities of his.

Now for some on topic stuff (yay!)

CT: You are missing the Battle off Samar as part of Leyte. You simply can't forget the sheer audacity of DDs and DEs charging into battle with BBs, CAs, CLs and vastly more DDs than the American's had and actually winning the day. I mean, a Kalinin Bay became the first and only carrier (though just a CVE) to score a crippling hit on the Chokai, a heavy cruiser. Palawan Passage is usually lumped in with the Battle of Sibuyan Sea.

YBS: Interesting. The Soviets would still be able to supply them from other regions, but this would cripple operations in a large area.


DanielJM (Just in case you had not figured it out before.)

Anonymous said...

Err . . . the anonymous post Bobby referred to was me, not the two that appeared while I was typing up my reply. Don't know who that was. The sample is not large enough for a good analysis.

*sigh* If we don't have the board back in a couple of days, I'll sign up for a stinking account.


DanielJM

Anonymous said...

Screw you Daniel

Bachelors of Science Aeronautical Engineering Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute 1987 - and I never said anything about a rocket going straight up and coming straight back down

And yes you did make comments about my wife - and Demon came close to recommending you get kicked off the board for it.

lordroel said...

oke I will remain at my on board where its safe until the SW forum is back online.

Anonymous said...

Caracalla here....

Olefin bye! You have insulted the author and I leave you with the words of Oliver Cromwell to the Rump Parliament

"You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately... Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"

SWFcane said...

To make this WHOLE thing FEASIBLE would take 100% of a persons time (maybe 3-4 people), its just SO MUCH info to get correct... Will things need cleaning up if it ever goes to press, yeah... Will it be worth Bobbys time then? Yeah, because he'll get some scratch for it (not that the donations don't help, but your not paying your mortgage with a pay-pal account)... I'm sure he appreciates the input as he has said throughout this post... No reason for you to take your ball and go home olfin, you seem very knowledgeable and it would hurt the community to lose your input... With that said, you made your point, it should be over... Thats just me... I, like most everyone here stumbled upon this thing as was hooked, its good stuff and is better than ANYTHING I could ever dream up... The bickering is just pointless... If someone talked bad about Olfins wife, well how that could possibly come up on a ALTERNATE HISTORY site is just beyond my reasoning, but if it did happen its wrong... In the end this is supposed to be fun... Also, WE NEED THE BOARD BACK... LOL

Anonymous said...

Why not just read it for reading sake and not nitpick over stupid stupid details? Some of you on here got to much time on your hands. Just read the ^%)#$$% story and enjoy.

CJ said...

Lest any of our more recent arrivals think that Olefin is deserving of martyrdom, let me state that he is far from a saint himself. As confirmed by one of he board moderators, he was communicating via private message with a number of board members to seek out their support for getting other members banned - members who didn't fall in line with his vision of Shattered World. I've even heard it said that this went so far as to hound moderators to come around to his point of view.

As I said, historically we've been a pretty friendly bunch. Once upon a time the nastiest things got was when I'd tell CT he needed to buy an atlas and use it. As to more recent times, even some of the mods have said that there is one common denominator to every 'flame thread'.

Anonymous said...

Actually Caracalla I never insulted Bobby - I accused him of letting the Japanese be criminally stupid and of appeasing one section of the board instead of a balanced story. By the way - I would have said the same thing if the Canaries battle had the USN gets its butt kicked with no Axis losses or if the Germans had gone thru the Russians in a month and taken Moscow.

His story has always been well written, well balanced and no one side has really done anything stupid where you could say that no real world commander would do that - not until this update.

Was always a pleasure to read - maybe it was because we pressured him to get an update out fast and we shouldnt have. It may have needed more time to be "gamed out". Maybe it is just trying to appeal to the "we want to see the Axis get their butts kicked" crowd. Dont know - but hopefully it will be better in the future.

I just hope he doesnt fall into the genocide approach I have heard of so many times here. I think having the US do that puts them on the road to being something totally different than I am comfortable with - I could see the Russians or Germans or Japanese doing that - but not the Americans.

Oh and CJ - how about telling the real story - I went to Demon and Roel and Trek and showed them the crap that Trendel was posting about me and what he was doing on the Wikki to my posts. Bobby saw it too and told him to stop - and Trendel told him to piss off. And that is what got Trendel booted.

So take your insinuations somewhere else - no one went behind anyone's back or did any campaign - I followed the rules that Bobby and Demon and Belle asked me to follow. I reported his actions, sent emails to the moderators per what I was told to do and held my fire myself. I even changed my wikki posts per Belle and Bobby's suggestion - and Trendel continued doing his stuff - and got booted when he told Bobby off.

So instead of posting a lie about me that is what happened guys.

And no one is asking for martydom here - you know what Caracalla it is time for me to go - just make sure you stay on CJ's and Daniel's good side - or they will start to post lies about you too.

Anonymous said...

You don't recall where you said that ballistic missiles go straight up? It was in the thread where you were asked to demonstrate your knowledge of Aerospace Engineering by describing the thrust equations for a V2 rocket. You then plagiarized another persons work for an answer. I followed by subtly demonstrating the plagiarism and asking how the G forces would be affected by the angle of launch. You responded that there would be no change since ballistic missiles do not work that way, they go straight up and follow a ballistic flight path from there. To which I recall responding by asking how the Germans hit England and vice versa. I do not recall how or if you responded.

I may have a detail or two off in there and there were many posts by other people during the exchange that I am ignoring.

I'm sure that we can check the record on all this stuff once the board comes back. Unless, of course, we lose the database. You may commence hoping for that . . . now.

Finally, as to your continued offers of copulation, please cease.



Does anybody not know who this is?

DanielJM

Anonymous said...

Woooo!!!1! 100th comment!

Anonymous said...

Caracalla here....

If you went through all that crap about not posting Olefin, then why are you still posting on here!!! What do you want someone to beg you to come back!? If you don't like what Bobby is writing tough shit! Just go and let the ones who like his story enjoy it with you whinning about this and that! Geezz!!!

Anonymous said...

Daniel - frankly you can go to hell. Ask CJ - he has my personal email and he knows what I do for a living from it. I am a degreed engineer who has been working as one ever since I got out of the US Army - with three US patents to may name now and number four on the way. And the post in question was at 130am in the morning - and at no time did I say in the post that the work I put up was my own work.

So frankly give it a rest.

And Caracalla - unless Bobby made you a moderator the only persons who can tell me what to do are Demon, Roel, Belle, Trek, Bobby and Daniel - period.

Anonymous said...

Swfcane, Roel, ybs and CT - I want to say something to you both - first off swfcane I want to apologize to you for this orgy of crapola that you have seen - from me, from CJ, from Daniel, etc.. - this is not what the board was supposed to be and I hope you dont go elsewhere

CT, Roel and ybs - I congratulate you all, along with swfcane on being adults on the board who have handled themselves well while myself and others have not. And I also wish to tender my sincere apologies to all of you.

Olefin

Anonymous said...

Caracalla here....

Olefin you were the one who made this grand speech about leaving. If SW bothers you so much take your own advice and leave, because I think alot of us are getting sick of reading your constant whinning.

Anonymous said...

Caracalla - cool it! All of you cool it - this is getting stupid - period. If you dont have anything to say about the update then shut the heck up - at least I was putting stuff up about the update and its events and not just personally attacking people - at least not until I got hit from all sides last night.

So either comment on the update or leave it alone.

Be a grown up like swfcane, roel, ct and the others I mentioned.

Olefin

Anonymous said...

Just want to point out that I am not, nor have I ever been, a moderator on the Shattered World board. Nice to know I have been thought of as a person of such authority.


DanielJM

Anonymous said...

Althist Fanatic

Ermmm...

So, who's anticipation 52.3?

Anonymous said...

Sorry I meant to say David (as in Bobby's brother) not Daniel - my mistake Daniel - good catch.

Olefin

Anonymous said...

Althist Fanantic again...

I meant 53.3

SWFcane said...

Its is what it is... This is a cool little corner of the net... We should just enjoy it and take lil things with a grain of salt... Ive done the lurking thing here for a while, but never got round to posting as I assume TONS of other people do... Its nice for some of us to have the little technical things knocked around... I realize the debate is usually good, and even if ya'll just bitched constantly I enjoy reading SW, so I'm staying, I'm finishing my coffee...

As for the next update... I think Bobby will make Okinawa quite interesting, maybe more so because of events on here... No way the USN gets off with as little damage as they did in the last update in the coming battle... Not to mention the situation on the other side of the globe...

CJ said...

I can confirm that at the very least, Olefin (David) is an adult and works for a major automotive company.

Anonymous said...

Thanks CJ for putting that up - Bobby has my email address as well so he knows where I work and what my job title is.

CJ said...

I think PART 53.3 should be interesting, and bloody.
* The Japanese are probably following late-war OTL tactics and holding the main effort for farther inland. It will be interesting to see how well US CBW equipment performs against the German-type nerve gas. Without a doubt, the Kamikazes will get much worse.
* As long as the USN is tied down off Okinawa, they won't be able to shift significant resources to the Mediterranean Sea. As long as that is the case, the stalemate in the Med will continue.
* I'm wondering how the Soviet will view the renewed Chinese Civil War. It's not like they are in a position to do a great deal, but still. At the end of the day I think Beria will sell the Chinese Communists out for increased US aid, but we'll see what Bobby has in mind. While the ChiComs are certainly an easier nut to crack than the Japanese coastal enclaves, I wonder how the US views this diversion of resources.
* Aside from a simmering revolt in Egypt, the front in North Africa has been quiet for a while now. Presumably the British/Commonwealth Army has made good much of their material losses, but I wonder how much the Axis have rebuilt given the resource drain that is the Eastern Front.
* As per the map Bobby posted, the Germans will punch through the Soviet lines and create a salient towards Moscow.

CJ said...

How about we talk about the forgotten element of PART 53.2 - the Eastern Front.

Now I never expected the VVS (Soviet AF) to completely disappear, but I was a bit surprised at the mention of them "making Luftwaffe attempts to control the skies very costly." I really wasn't expecting the VVS to be dishing out that kind of punishment at this stage of the game.

It also sounds like while the Germans are advancing, the casualties may make their "victory" in the east a phyric one for the German Army. It will be interesting to see if the Germans start moving up minor Axis units from Ukraine to make good some of their losses.

lordroel said...

Yes CJ I was wondering that to as the Germans don’t have a unlimited pool of people and should someday look at the bottom of the barrel and find that the have no people to send to the front so I was wondering if more minor axis nations are getting involved in order to prevent the Germans from loosing the manpower not only to fight but also to produce food , and the weapons the use.

Plus I hope to hear from our favorite friend Rommel again what he is doing in Africa.

And from the point that whey agree open is whey really need the board back online as the blog is to crowdie and has no supervision.

Anonymous said...

I said from the start that the only winer in a renewed Axis-Soviet war is the AfD.

Anonymous said...

That was me (DanielJM)

Anonymous said...

Althist Fanatic

Daniel, don't be so sure. Don't forget that the Soviets are in a MUCH worse situation than in OTL. And the AfD aren't just standing back and watching. They're in the war as much as the Axis is. I think Britain's going to get bombed into the stone age. Maybe even nuked, but either way, much worse than in OTL.

Anonymous said...

ctwaterman again

*Sighs* Ok, I going on vacation thank god I am goin on vacation so dont expect to many posts from me after August 14th until after August 20th. I am going to go play lots and lots of War Games at Gen Con in Indianapolis.

CJ- But I did have an Atlas I just couldnt find it. So I finally found a decent one on Line so I would have it at my finger tips as it were. {:-P~

As for Russia yes CJ I Agree the Germans are going to have to move in more and more minor axis troops to make up for the Brutal Losses they are taking. And this is going to drastically slow there advance because the Minor Axis troops just are not as well trained, well equiped or motivated as the German Troops. Plus the Germans have to destroy all those strong points they have left in there rear area's. In addition they are going to have to start worrying about their supply lines north of the Priphet (sp?) Marshes.

Anonymous said...

ctwaterman again

*Evil Grin* CJ- I opened up that atlas we were discussing and was looking at the area around Smolensk. They called it the cauldron of Smolensk for a damn good reason. If the Germans want to avoid repeatedly crossing rivers they litterally have to go through this area and if I were the Russian I would have put a whole lot of effort into fortifying and stockpiling stuff in this area.

So if the Russian are taking what fuel they are getting and rushing it to this front it could become a very nasty meeting engagement. There are rivers on both sides and Marshes to the South. The Battle Front is narrow and the Germans are going to have to fight a strait up heads on fight to break through here.

Sounds very very nasty and the fighting could break both armies or only one of them. Its really a toss up which way it goes.

I agree that Rommel is probably not going to be getting the priority he wants or needs for replacement men or materials. Replacing tanks and munitions for North Africa while at the same time doing so in the Cauldron of Smolensk is going to be difficult enough without the US and the British pounding the North African ports.

As for Okinawa I think US Land Based Air Cover from Formosa and other Islands is going to be really important and that securing some volcanic atol north of Okinawa with a raiding force and putting a Long Range Radar on it would be a very good idea for the US. Get very good raid warning otherwise the few Japanese Heavy Bombers are going to be able to Launch the Suicide Rockets K-24 from up to a couple of hudred miles out.

As for the Land Based K-24 I think they are a very endangered Species the launch ramps simply cannot realistically be hidden from the Air and once spotted will be subject to everything from Dive Bombers with 1000 and 2000 AP Bombs to B-31's with TallBoys and Gran Slams. Maybe even your favorite the Tarzon version of the Tall Boy....????? If I remember correctly.

YBS said...

China is not going to be that important right now, but it will be in the post war period. It still has some 300 million+ inhabitants and after the Chicomms are finished, they can certainly push into Manchuria with US help (after the war probably). Like i said in my previous post, the Chicomms are gonna be cut off. The only province they can really hold on to is Shandong and Shandong, is not a very productive province.

The chinese are never hesttant about trading men for ground as seen in the Korean war. With US equipment, the Nationalist army can easily pour into Manchuria after they contain the chicomms... a 3 million man army armed with US weaponry is not something the soviets can stop at the same time while fighting the Germans.

Anonymous said...

David here

CT I totally agree with you about the ramps for the K-24's on Okinawa - any ramp launched K-24's need to be used immediately or they will be gone. The US has air superiority - and once those other seven carriers show up it will be total air superiority. Any launch by a K-24 is going to get tracked back and the ramp it came from destroyed within hours at most.

As for bomber launched ones - they can use a peashooter patrol with airborne radar coverage using planes based out of Formosa (assume the US now has a version of what the Brits used) to take out any bombers coming in long before they launch. The only way they will get any bombers close is to give them massive fighter protection - and with Sakhalin hit as it was Japanese fuel reserves are going to start running low within weeks if they do that.

That’s why I don’t see Okinawa being the running sore it was in OTL - the Americans only lost one carrier (crippled) and had a couple damaged moderately at best - that gives them at least 9-10 Essex class CV with jets, radar guided AA, proximity fuses and with the Japanese fleet now gone completely they can go completely AA in their formations - no need to guard against any kind of sortie since there are no ships left to sortie. Unless the Japanese launch massive strikes - and I mean 700+ planes massive - I don’t see them getting any kamikazes past that wall of jets and AA. And even if they do launch ones that big I don’t see many getting thru even then.

The only real chance they had to do Okinawa type damage was to do that when that task force was vulnerable - but Bobby had them blow that chance. Once the 7th Fleet joins up off Okinawa I cant see any strike of old prop planes flown by 19 year old untrained pilots getting past them.

As for the Smolensk meatgrinder - well that’s what Napalm is for - to burn the infantry out of their holes or kill them by burning up all the oxygen in the area. A heavy napalm strike that leaves them gasping for oxygen followed by a nerve gas strike can clear pretty good holes to advance thru.

Decided I am not going anywhere - not after the attacks I took yesterday. So thanks Caracalla and Daniel - you pissed me off to the point I decided to stay - good job there. If you had just let me go without the personal crap I may have left - but after accusing me of lying about being an engineer and other things there is no way I am going to let statements like that stand unanswered.

So here I stay - and my comments about what I think of the last update will not be retracted - not one word. Bobby's update apparently will stand as is - which is disappointing. When you have a story where one side does stupid things the entire time and the other brilliant ones, where one side gets away with something dumb and the other only does dumb things, that doesn’t bode well for the future. However that is water over the bridge - going to be very interested to see how Bobby somehow makes Okinawa a bloody fight after he threw away the Japanese fleet without the Americans losing a single ship and had the kamikaze rockets revealed but in such a way that they didn’t do enough damage to really make a difference.

Anonymous said...

David here

ybs - I think that China may become much more important - at least to Russia - because their support for the ChiComms may come back to bite them. China lost a lot of territory to Russia since 1850 - territory that China has wanted back in OTL. Vladivostok for instance is in territory that was once considered Chinese. So if the Nationalists do end up winning and taking back Manchuria they may end up wanting some payback with the Russians - and Russia right now is very weak in the Pacific - there isnt much they could do to stop a Chinese attack into the Russian Far East.

Anonymous said...

ctwaterman here

actually it was exactly those raids by 250-300+ Planes several times a day and timmed to arrive just around dusk that led to the running sore of Okinawa. Those 600 or more damaged Ships and 60+ sunk ships were all hit and damaged durring those constant raids while the fleet was tied to set geographical location. I fully expect that over the next 2-3 months that the Japanese will do about as much damage as historical.

The Only difference is that with the US using Nukes and Gas on the Islands the fighting is going to be over much more quickly then in OTL. Which will free up the US Fleets for hit and run raids on the Japanese Home Islands.

I would hope the US has developed a Airborne Radar Warning system probably using something like an Avenger Torpedo Bomber Something with lift endurance and space for at least 2 or 3 Crew. Hey... Perhaps the Larger Essex Class or the first of the Midway Class will carry a specialy modified F7F Tiger Cat with the internal weapons bay modified to hold a couple of radar controllers and a belly Radar. Twin Engines plenty of range and plenty of lift for external fuel stores. Especially when you strip out the 4x20MM and 4x .50 Cal weapon system. That would allow the US to operate an aircraft 100+ Mile North of the Carriers with a roughly 150 NM Radar Coverage 250 Miles+ raid warning is an awful lot. Plus it will reduce the losses among the outside picket destroyers who got mauled doing the same thing. A large number of these destroyers were among the ships sunk and damaged.

lordroel said...

Wow ctwaterman you are a busy person posting sometime the same things on two forums.

And about the awacs did the US not have B-17's covered for Airborne Early Warning radars the could be used for this purpose if the US has a landing field on Okinawa .

And about the chinees civil war will this now happening is the US side for the Nationalists ore are the neutral in the civil war.

CJ said...

I'd be very surprised if the US wasn't operating B-31 derived ARPs (SW proto-AWACS) out of Formosa to cover the fleet.

I'd think that the carrier-based ones are probably based on the Skyraider airframe by this time and are close to the OTL AD-4W. The Avenger is a solid airframe, but it's likely been out of production for a while now.

Anonymous said...

David here

CT that type of aircraft is not only possible - I would think it is most likely probable. And if you don’t have the need for the radar pickets (i.e. DD's and DDE's sitting exposed as they did in OTL Okinawa and for that matter OTL Falklands in 1982) then ship losses are going to go way down compared to OTL.

And I also agree with you as well about the battle taking less time - for instance a lot of casualities at Okinawa came from how the Japanese used the terrain to site mortars and artillery that made them very hard to take out and slow down the Marines and Army to a crawl- here the US will be able to use gas weapons and nukes if they have to to make them pay if they try that.

Anonymous said...

David here

Roel you can tell the US is supporting the Nationalists with at least air power and supplies - i.e. this line from the update

In northeast China, Nationalist forces backed by U.S. tactical air support begin a broad offensive into the communist held region in northeast China

Anonymous said...

David here

A question about the Aquila - 75 aircraft - are we talking 75 jet aircraft or 75 propellor aircraft?

Archangel said...

David,
I doubt the US will let the Nationalists invade the USSR's Far East (the AFD needs USSR's help in the war).
Even Manchuria returning to China's hands requires impressive pression from China, USSR's even greater weakness and something very good for USSR in return for it(conquered territories, in case they have any). Remember Manchuria is a strategic asset for the USSR, given their present condition.

Lordroel,
The most likely in the Chinese Civil War, would be that, as none of its patrons (US and USSR) can war each other - they are allied against the Axis - so they will probably help their respective friends with weapons, military counselling and diplomatic support.
Since the agreement between US and USSR was, that northern China, except Manchuria, was to be returned to China, the US can help also with air tactical support, but for several reasons, the USSR can't do the same for the ChiComm.

Anonymous said...

David here

I think if the ChiComms can hold then the whole issue of Manchuria becomes mute, at least during the Second World War - i.e. the Nationalists in that situation may decide that getting the enclaves back is more important to them and leave the ChiComms in control of whatever areas they manage to hold in.

However if the ChiComms cant hold and the Nationalists get the border of Manchuria during the war - then things could get very very interesting indeed. Especially if either Japan has been fully knocked out by then or has been rendered completely impotent by the US to the point that the Nationalists feel they no longer need US help. In that situation any US ability to hold Chiang back from invading Manchuria may be minimal - and then you could see the Chinese in direct combat with the Russians.

If that does happen then you could see a Chinese Russian war over the Soviet Far East and Manchuria - and considering how weak Russia is right now it would most likely end with the Chinese in possession of Manchuria, Vladivostok and other areas that are now part of the Soviet Union. Losing those resources could seriously change the balance of power for the Soviets and the Chinese - and possibly make Russia even weaker after WWII and make China a much more serious power player in Asia - especially if they are in position to move into Korea if the Japanese suddenly collapse.

Anonymous said...

David here

One thing people need to keep in mind is that there are three very big wildcards that are still in Asia that might keep things going long after whatever goes on in Japan gets finished

1) India/Pakistan/Bangladesh – Will they stay in the Empire or will they immediately demand independence as soon as Japan falls by saying that the emergency is over and its time for Britain to go? If so will Britain let them go and risk losing Indian troops to use against the Germans? If they do go their own way do we see the level of violence that was seen in OTL here or will it be worse or better?

2) Indonesia versus the Dutch – The Indonesians want independence while the Dutch, with no homeland want the East Indies to be able to do two things – give them a viable homeland for their people and also because its resources make them a vital part of the AfD. The oil and other resources there would allow them to still be a major player where if they lose it they become a minor nation indeed with only Curacao and Surinam to be Free Netherlands.

Right now Sumatra, Java and several other islands are total tossups – there are a few AfD troops there but they aren’t in any strength – plus there are pro-independence groups, Communists, Islamist groups you name it – that whole area could boil over into a huge mess – and continue to deny the resources of that area to the AfD for quite a while.

3) China – not only do you have the whole ChiComm/Nationalist mess to deal with but also a possible war with the Russians to get Manchuria back, Chinese territorial ambitions in Vietnam, Korea and the Russian Far East, plus a lot of anger at the AfD and the US for things like letting China burn for years with no support, the nuking of a Chinese city to get at the Japanese, letting the enclaves sit and the Chinese starve while the US went after Japan proper instead, etc..

China may turn into an even bigger mess and make the US have to choose between pissing off a victorious Chiang and possibly making China an enemy – or supporting him and then making Russia and enemy and possibly have them refuse to cooperate with any AfD moves against Germany.

Anonymous said...

David here

Bobby a question - are the Nationalists driving for any one particular city or area - i.e. is Peking their target, are they trying to clear the coast, etc.. - or is it a broad based offensive all along the border with the ChiComm area?

Anonymous said...

Althist Fanatic here

hmmm... I can't stop thinking about the possibility of a Japanese bomb. Things are going to change a lot from 1949 to 1951, but a lot of these questions would have some clear or intruiging answers if Japan had nukes. For example, Japan could retake Manchuria and possibly a chunk of Far Eastern Soviet territory. But that would have untold side effects...

Anonymous said...

David here

Considering the unmitigated disaster that just happened to Japan I cant see them surviving into 1950 let alone 1951 unless something happens to distract the US and force them to leave them alone - i.e. a disaster that would force the US to pull most of its fleet and air force into Europe.

About the only thing I could see making that happen would be a major series of disasters or losses to the RN fleet - i.e. possibly the Germans getting the bomb in 49 and using it to take out the RN's main fleet anchorages in England.

Or, alternatively, things go really South in China and the US has to use a major amount of resources to save the Nationalists from the ChiComms - but that also doesnt seem to be in the cards.

However the US could possibly take the whole Japanese Empire except for Japan, Korea and Sakhalin and then leave them to stew - and possibly, just possibly, Japan could survive barely to 51 and get a bomb - but not sure what good it would do them with no fleet and no Empire.

Anonymous said...

David here

CJ what is your best estimate for what the Japanese have left for fleet units?

My guess would be:

Japan - 1-2 CL, 6-9 DD, 10-12 subchasers or DDE's, 24-36 submarines of various types (CL and DD are all Philliphine Sea survivors, figure the DDE's wouldnt go into a fleet battle)

Singapore - 2-3 BB, 2-3CA, 1-3 CL, 10-12 DD, 8-12 submarines of various types (immobilized ships with very little fuel mostly being used as gun support)

Carolines - occasional submarines on cargo runs

China enclaves - occasional submarines on cargo runs, possibly some old gunboats and patrol boats still afloat

Korea - 3-6 DD's, 3-6 DDE's or subchasers, 8-12 submarines of various types

Sakhalin - 2-3 DD's, 4-6 subchasers/DDE's, 4-8 submarines + patrol boats - possibly may be where the Japan ships are based to put them near the remaining fuel supplies

Anonymous said...

Ole finished crying yet?

Great update Bobby.

Anonymous said...

Althist Fanatic here

There are a LOT of wildcards lying around, and Bobby just might pull one. He has in SW history, so why not now? He also hinted that Japan would get nukes by or before the end of the war. I think that the most likely wildcard to be pulled is the situation in China. Very ominous. There's going to be a very complicated situation going on there. You have got ChiComms vs Chinese Nationalists vs Japan vs Soviets vs Leftover Puppet Regimes all vying for the same region of land. I wouldn't mind seeing Japan getting Manchuria as the leftovers of its Empire. But Korea and the Home Islands was pretty much was Japan started with in the thirties, so they're not in that bad a situation territory-wise considering what they started with. Still, the SW Cold War is going to be VERY interesting with the Axis replacing the Soviets, and Japan is going to be a key player (presuming they survive to Nuclear power). I look forward to Japan as a superpower. But if they can't survive this war, oh well. SW Cold War is still going to be cool.

lordroel said...

I don’t think that Japan will be a superpower if the ever survey in to the 50s more i think it will be a bigger version of t north Korea and poorer at that.

Anonymous said...

David here - if you have the guts to post this then have the guts to put your name on it - as Bobby said - if you are a member of the board then put your name as part of the post.

As for your comment - put it where the sun doesnt shine.

Anonymous said...
Ole finished crying yet?

Great update Bobby.

August 9, 2007 4:35 PM

Anonymous said...

David here -

I agree with you Roel about Japan -I cant see them ever becoming anything other than a small regional power like North Korea. The big question for them will be will they ever get nukes - they may end up more focused on bio and chemical weapons as their weapons of mass destruction and leave the nukes to the big boys.

China is really interesting - depending on what happens they could become anything from a really reliable US ally to an eventual superpower rival as they are now. It all depends on what is left of Russia and if the ChiComms hold.

Anonymous said...

David here

Bobby a question - when Iwo was nuked did the radiation cloud also get Chichi-jima? Thats the island where George Bush got shot down during WWII - its to the northeast of Iwo which is not the typical direction for winds coming from there. Just wondering as that island was a major point for Japanese radio communication and surveillance operations in the Pacific, It had two radio stations on top of its two mountains and was one of the Navy's big targets in WWII OTL. With Iwo gone it and Haha-jima are the only real outposts the Japanese have left in the area.

lordroel said...

Thanks David for agreeing about Japan which I still doubt will being able to do anything except project a brown water fleet witch the probably are now and in the future the will surely be nothing more then a country that is isolistic and militaristic with a A-bomb.

And I agree also with David that people should put their names when the post so whey now who is posting it.

David I like your left fleet units for the IJN but have one question do the Carolines have MTB ore small ships ore do the Japanese have no navy presence there.

Anonymous said...

David here

Hi Roel - I think the Carolines may have some small ships - probably nothing bigger though than a patrol boat or MTB - the US would have made sure anything bigger than a DE got sunk by now.

The Japanese probably still have a lot of small boats off China and Korea as well - but trying to use patrol boats and MTB's offensively against total air superiority is pretty much useless. Most likely they will be turned into suicide craft or just anchored and their guns taken ashore.

The Japanese will use whatever is left of their naval ships - most likely as I said a few DD and DDE spread between Korea, Japan and Sakhalin - to escort the shipping that is still going between those areas. There could still be some minor surface actions - but eventually those ships will be lost as well - just a matter of time.

Anonymous said...

David here - fyi for those who dont know the geography of the area - there would still be islands in the Okinawa prefecture that would have operational airfields that havent been nuked yet - assuming that the US will be hitting them as well - the Japanese would have airfields at:

Iejima - that's where Ernie Pyle died in WWII

Kume - not sure if there ever was an airbase there - they did base seaplanes there

Miyako-jima to the southwest of Okinawa has a decent size airbase

Ishigaki airbase - even further southwest and home to a major airbase - most likely would have been used as a ferry point for flights into the enclaves

I would think that Ishigaki and Miyako-jima may be used by the Japanese to try to stage medium bombers out of the hit the ships near Okinawa from the south with K-24 rockets.

Anonymous said...

David here - fyi the board must be reloading - could sign in at 11pm EST but couldnt send messages, read topics or post - but at least could access it and sign in - figure by Fri with luck maybe it will be back up

Anonymous said...

David here - if you have the guts to post this then have the guts to put your name on it - as Bobby said - if you are a member of the board then put your name as part of the post.

Guts..internet...yeah I think I'll let real life actions dictate that lol. Also not a forum member, just a long time (ish) lurker, forum is good for a read, between gaming, work and another forum I dont have the time,not that it matters, people usually post exactly what I'm thinking about that particular threads topic anyway.

As for your comment - put it where the sun doesnt shine.

lol since its 5am here, on the shelf might be a good spot. XD

Anonymous said...

David here - like I said - if you want to put down a board member then at least have the guts - or the brains - to put down your name when you do it. Thats why we identify ourselves here - so we know who is saying what and can respond appropriately.

Or you can just lurk and put people down from behind the veil of the net and thus be ignored.

Anonymous said...

Or you can just lurk and put people down from behind the veil of the net and thus be ignored.

You didnt.

If people have incredibly thin skin then so be it.

Anonymous said...

ctwaterman again

I have to say that Japan surviving 4 years of the total attention of the US economy would take more then a Miracle it would take a direct intervention from on Hi.

Basically I was discussing this with other board members and I wanted to state a few things.

1. Look at the Kill ratio of Japanese Losses over Okinawa and in air to air combat. 2 Japanese Shot Down to each US Aircraft shot down. These combat losses are more indicative of 1942 then of 1945 style combat. Basically Japan has been at war with the US since 1946 [3 years] they have lost there aircraft in China, they have lost there aircraft in Manchuria, they have lost Burma. Basically there aircraft losses in Bobbys ATL have to be much worse then in OTL where the IJAAF in China was still largely intact but without fuel in 1945. But basically what I didnt see was a proper US-Japanese kill ratio. The US maintained a better then 12 to 1 Kill ratio in this period and I didnt see a Marriana's Turkey shoot between US and Japanese Pilots.

By 1944/45 the Japanese adopted Suicide tactics for a variety of reasons but one of the most important was that Japanese Pilots attacking the USN Fleet simply werenot comming home anyway. Between the US fighters and the US 5"/38 Cal gun with proximity fuzes and then the 40 MM and 20 MM cannon the Japanese would send out 100 Aircraft and if they were lucky they would get maybe 10 or less back.

I have posted why the US maintained such kill rates on the board before but I will some up. A huge pre-war pilot training program. Huge amounts of fuel for pilot training and advanced pilot training. Pilot rotation programs. And armor and self sealing fuel tanks meant more pilots lived to go home and train the next squadrons and become that squadron XO or CO of flight leaders. Its indicative of how the air war was going that in 1944/45 a Green US pilot fresh from training had 500 Hours of flight time, a German Pilot less than 75 hours and a Japanese pilot usually under 10 hours.

Anonymous said...

David here - actually I dont have thin skin - if I did I wouldnt have posted as much as I have here. Plus just following the rules per Bobby - as he said if you want to post then dont do it anonymously.

Now either post something constructive about the update or something else about SW - or please go find somewhere else to play.

Anonymous said...

David here - good point CT. All I can think of is that either, in this battle, the Japanese had more jets than the Americans did and that help offset the kill ration - i.e. maybe the majority of the carriers were older ones that couldnt handle jets and a large proportion of the Japanese fighters were jets - or - alternatively that the Japanese changed their training policies quite a while ago and that they still have at least some decent pilots that can still hold their own.

Course we also dont know how many planes the Japanese sent from Okinawa - perhaps the Americans were heavily outnumbered and that could explain the 2 to 1 kill ratio - or they only had a small CAP up initially that was, again, heavily outnumbered and thus led to the kill ratio being what it was.

For this late in the war that kill ratio is still very very favorable to Japan - and doesnt bode well for the US if the Japanese do launch mass (i.e. 500 plane plus) attacks against the ships at Okinawa.

Anonymous said...

ctwaterman again

I Dont know David - What i do know is that even if Japan had changed its training policy I would love to know when and where they got the extra fuel to do all those extra training flights for there new pilots.

I know Bobby has the Germans providing Japan Oil from roughly 1941 till 1945/46 because otherwise we know what happens. But since 1945 when Germany went back to war with France and GB Oil shipments have been cut off to Japan. Japan captured the Dutch East Indies but they certainly didnt hold them long enough to completely repair them and exploit them and with the US holding the PI that creates a very nasty choke point that all Japanese Oil tankers had to sail past. And once the Japanese were repulsed and the USAAC started building up Oil flow would have been very difficult with Bombers and Subs operating from basis within 400 Miles of the trade routes.

Anyway Japanese Oil production has just taken a very hard slam and massed attacks once the 7th Fleet moves into support range of the Invasion fleet will mean attacking directly into the fighter strength of at least 7 Essex class carriers. In addition the US should be staging land based aircraft out of Formosa and costal Japan. Plus the US support might be moving up slower then the Main Invasion fleet. The US CVE might very well be moving in an at Leyte Gulf the US CVE carried between 400-500 Additional combat aircraft.

Anonymous said...

ctwaterman again

*yea team go back to the discussion board*... and I will see you all sometime after the 20th of August or whenever I see a computer again.

Anonymous said...

David (Olefin) here - confirmed that the board is back up so we dont have to use this any longer as the discussion point.

Anonymous said...

The fragment is excellent. Keep up the good work !

Anonymous said...

David (Olefin) here

One thing for sure about this update - the bomber story at the beginning is very well written and I think some of the best stuff that Bobby has ever done - that was a very very good read, no matter what I though of the rest of the update.

And I mean that Bobby - that story made for compelling reading and is exactly why I so enjoy SW.

Left Atomics said...

I don't think the Chinese communists are finished. In OTL, they were the ones to really fight the Japanese, the Nationalists were to corrupt to fight out of a brown paper bag. If anything holds to the ATL, then the social base of the Nationalists would be totally undermined by the ChiComs, which wouldn't take much considering the pro-landlord approach the nationalists took across board.

Secondly, we really don't know what the USSR will do, especially sitting on Manchuria the way they are.

Lastly, the Korean partisan movement was always present in OTL and pounced as soon as the Japanese showed any weakness. This hasn't been explored very much or at all in this timeline, but perhaps it ought to.

David Walters

Anonymous said...

David here

One question I would like to know - how are the 200,000 plus defenders in Minsk still alive all this time? They are under almost constant gas and nerve gas attacks and have been now for quite a while. Now I know that the Russians stockpiled supplies there - but do you have any idea how many suits and cartridges would be needed to keep that many men alive under a sustained nerve gas attack that has now been going on for weeks?

I could see 50,000 or so still being alive - but to keep 200,000 alive they would have needed the gas equipment for almost a million men to stay alive under this kind of barrage for this long. If so, the rest of the Russian Army has to be running short of gas equipment.

So where did they get that level of equipment - and dont tell me men on foot were carrying enough suits and cartridges to stay alive all this time under nerve gas attack.

Anonymous said...

David here

Fyi on the Italian carrier - sent Bobby some questions and here is the info he gave me

She has one sister carrier almost completed (she was the one that got damaged at Naples) and two others that are 18-24 months away in the early stages of development - which to me implies that Italy has the resources to build about 2 CV at a time

There are others that are of more advanced design but they are still on the drawing board.

The 75 planes are advanced Italian propellor aircraft, about as good as the best US/British propellor aircraft. At this time she isnt operating jets.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Bobby let me be the first to say that the updated revision reads fantastic! Just about every logic hole is closed, the death ride is now explained (as in if they dont do it they wont have enough fuel to ever sortie again anyway), and the kamikaze attack is much more realistic.

And having Kyushu get nailed to suppress the air attacks out of there fully explains where those planes were and why they didnt participate in the final battle.

And the losses at Minsk are much more realistic now instead of only 25,000 over the course of 43 days in what is supposed to be a desperate battle.

And like the touch about the running convoy battles in the Canaries - just the little touch that brings it to life.

Thank you for the revised update!

Anonymous said...

Hi

I want to say I like this story, it's very good if one uses SoB when it comes to ecomonics. Not sure about the economics at the start of the eurasian war as this has been a multi year read, i take that stalin wasn't the prick he was and didn't wack his army. Still hard to work out how he ould have started a war with Hitler in control.

Anyway, what I don't understand is why japan has a navy, why they have an army, infact why the US sub's havn't blockaded japan. There is no good reason for this not happening. There is no reason for the US to fight in China or for that matter most anywhere else in Asia. Japan had no realist chance of fighting the US and UK even with this timeline and with full tech sharing with the Germans when given the trade the germans did with the UK/US/France (which should have bancrupted the germans and led to mass stavation in the east since even they knew they could never produce enoughth food to feed the area they had conquered)

There is another problem, with the toing and throwing of populations, that should have effected food production, in our TL that was always a major problem and led to the german rule that others would starve before the germans would, which is the main reason why the decided that half the polish people would have to starve to death (they couldn't feed everyone) and also why there was no point in getting the soviet states to join them (transport was always a major problem).

anyway great story butjapan should be suffering from blockades, the scandanavian iron ore sites should be hit (why wern't they destroyed with the fall of norway) and north africa should be of no interest. The Uk should have Egypt and so you use a nuke in the ME to control the oil, once you have that the med fall's, well north africa does becouse of cheep subs after that Franco goes nuetral to save madrid and the UK get's the rock back, nukes are not wasted wining tactical objectives when they can win stratigic objectives.

David said...

Olefin here

Remember the iron ore mines in Sweden were in Russian hands till a few weeks ago - so the Allies are not going to be destroying iron ore mines in Russian hands.

Anonymous said...

Great stuff, looking forward to more!

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