A Devastating Alternate Second World War

December 21, 2007



Shattered World - Segment 53.3

"Leningrad und Smolensk, oder Tod"




Nuclear fire blossomed like the all consuming brilliance of some ancient warrior god. In the middle, hell boiled and reached upwards for the heavens. All around, concentric circles of overpressure extend out to snuff out life and property like a million angry fists, smashing all before them. 40 kilotons of death and mayhem, delivered from the great predator birds of war - flying far overhead, now withdrawing eastward with fighters in vain pursuit; like gnats pricking the giants of old or hawks throwing themselves at the Earth in desperate rage.
Shifting the viewpoint downward and out to sea, to the inferno that had been the Island of Okinawa. The battle lines are stark, brutal scars cutting their jagged path across a tortured terrain becoming more that of nightmare by the hour. Craters dot the land, making it appear like the surface of some hostile alien world. Off the coast, great ships mass in their hundreds. Flashes erupt among them, and dozens of small, fast, human projectiles throw themselves into the depths of exploding shrapnel and a million aimed shells and rounds. Explosions erupt among the great vessels, and a few of them heave in their death throws, plunging into the abyssal depths to end their days of service - taking with them hundreds of struggling men to new watery graves.
Back to land, where columns of metal machines crawl across the earth, surrounded by men in masks and mottled uniforms, wielding clever personal weapons of death. They push ahead, leap frogging at times, at others flowing slowly like thick molasses; pushing into areas of enemy weakness. Foul clouds fill the air, noxious vapors that bring only death carry on the winds;killing and maiming all those unfortunate enough to lack protective measures. Explosions ripple, moving with the front lines - leaving broken men and death in their wake. Mechanical contraptions that flit about on whirling blades buzz this way and that. Molten fire bursts suddenly here and there, raining from the air to melt flesh and burn all before it;like the breath of some great ancient Dragon.
And now, rain; as if the Earth itself wept at the deeds of men.


August 4th 1949

On Kyushu, Kagoshima is struck by a 40 kiloton atomic bomb in another B-34 raid following massive conventional bombardment of anti-aircraft defenses in the area. In a scene that is grim, but now all too common in Japan, much of the city is destroyed; hundreds of thousands are dead or wounded.
The Battle of Okinawa rages on. U.S. Marines, with the help of massive air support and three more atomic blasts over the past three days, have slogged across muddy terrain and have largely secured the center of the island, landing with 5 divisions around Hogushi and rapidly pushing north, east, and south. Although U.S. forces have seized most of the center of the island, many pockets of Japanese resistance remain determined to fight to the death. After an initial surge, U.S. forces have now been stalled by strong Japanese defensive lines in the north and south where independent Japanese commands still hold strong positions and intend to hold out as long as possible. The civilian population, largely concentrated in the south of the island, is suffering greatly and have largely fled inside massive bomb shelters and tunnels dispersed around the towns.
Off the coast of Okinawa the fierce battle at sea continues, with Japanese submarines attempting with little success to disrupt the U.S. fleet's lines of communication and K-24 kamikaze rocket-bombs and conventional aircraft out of Kyushu making intermittent massed attacks. Since the initial landings on August 1st another dozen U.S. vessels, ranging from supply ships to destroyers and cruisers, have been sunk or heavily damaged, with others more lightly damaged.

August 5th 1949

On the Eastern Front, German infantry backed by heavy tanks and massive artillery and air support continue to press into Minsk, paying dearly for every collapsed house and rubble strewn street corner they seize. Soviet Forces there, resigned to their fate, are determined to fight on as long as human willpower can endure; making Minsk an ongoing nasty wound in the German side. To the east, German forces have slogged another 5 kilometers closer to Leningrad, putting the southwestern outskirts of that city under direct artillery and rocket bombardment. To the South, Smolensk is a death zone for the German Army. German forces have pushed several kilometers on the northern and southern portion of soviet defenses there but have not managed a breakout that would allow an encirclement. Determined to achieve their objectives before the Autumn rains, the German high command commits the last of its heavy reserves. It is "Leningrad und Smolensk, oder Tod" for the German Army.

August 7th 1949

In northeastern China Nationalist forces put Beijing under siege, push back Chinese communist forces across a broad front. Despite these Nationalist gains, communist guerrillas open a widespread guerrilla campaign behind the lines and across many parts of China in general. It is the beginning of the "Time of the Red Terror" in China, a terrible chapter in Chinese history. Communist guerrilla forces, with Soviet backing, have planned in detail for a vicious campaign of total warfare and terrorism that borders on genocidal in its scope and cruelty. Food production is to be attacked with Soviet developed anti-agriculture bio weapons, water supplies are to be poisoned, chemical and bio terrorist attacks launched, amongst all manner of other vicious and cruel terrorist and guerrilla operations.

August 8th 1949

After a series of large, intensely contested, conventional heavy bomber raids and fighter sweeps over the past week around Southern Spain, U.S. B-34 bombers escorted by swarms of carrier jet fighters conduct an atomic attack on Cadiz and two nearby air fields.
At Cadiz, two atomic bombs are detonated 500 feet over the city - targeting the Axis Naval Command Base and the port facilities. Cadiz is mostly wiped off the map, and over half of its population is killed and many of the rest injured. Axis naval infrastructure, both administrative and the naval facilities themselves, are completely wiped out along with much of the Axis's Unified Naval Command leadership. Some do survive in bunkers, but for all intents and purposes the heart of the Axis Naval Command has been torn out and Cadiz rendered useless as a center of naval power or a center of anything else for that matter.
In the same attack, two airfields in the region around Cadiz are destroyed by atomic bombs, though many of their aircraft were airborne at the time and simply move to other air fields. Overall, Axis naval power on the Atlantic coast of southern Spain has been dealt a fatal blow and air power has been dealt a harsh but not quite crippling blow.The only good news for the Axis is that there were no significant warships in the port at the time since the Axis had already withdrawn their naval assets into the western Mediterranean

August 9th 1949

In a joint Anglo-American broadcast directed at Spain, the U.S. and British demand that Spain surrender, hinting darkly that Madrid isn't that far north of Cadiz and that Spain would be "well advised to seriously consider its national interests". In a recently completed bunker beneath Madrid, Franco has been engaged in intense meetings with his most trusted allies. Above, in the streets of the Spanish capitol, the mood is somber. There is anger at the "massacre of Cadiz", but more than that there is fear of what city may be next.
Fearing that Spain may be wavering, Hitler orders the Luftwaffe to "defend Spain as if she were the Fatherland". The Luftwaffe's high leadership, looking at maps showing active theatres on all sides of the Reich, have difficult choices to make. Increasing assets in Spain will mean decreasing them somewhere else. But where to draw these assets from? From Baku, with its vital oil fields? From the Eastern front where the war may hang in the balance? From the Fatherland itself where the German people lay under the shadow of nuclear destruction? From Rommel's valiant forces struggling for control of North Africa? From the Channel Front where the RAF grows more bold with its fighter sweeps and bomber streams by the week?

August 11th 1949

The extensive use of nerve and mustard gas by the Japanese on Okinawa has proven to be quite effective against U.S. forces in the oppressive summer heat. Despite this, and despite the loss of many tanks to Japanese anti-tank rockets(Nicknamed 'Yellow Bazookas' by U.S. forces), U.S. Marines have crushed the last pockets of resistance on the island's mid regions and have consolidated their positions in the face of fierce Japanese counter attacks in the north and south. U.S. naval and air bombardment of the Japanese held north and south is perhaps the most intense the world has ever seen although there have been no new atomic attacks since August 3rd. Japanese use of their kamikaze rockets has fallen off sharply although U.S. intelligence cannot determine if this is due to them all being used, them being destroyed, or the Japanese hoarding them for future use. Conventional air attacks from Kyushu have been a daily occurrence despite brutal losses suffered by the Japanese. Since August 5th conventional Japanese air attacks and sporadic kamikaze rocket attacks have only managed to sink another three destroyers, a cruiser, and two transports; with half a dozen other vessels sustaining light to moderate damage, including one U.S. carrier that is forced to steam for the Philippines after a lucky level bomber manages to deliver a bomb to her flight deck.

[* The Japanese anti-tank rocket mentioned above is based on an ATL 1945 German design that is very similar to German anti-tank rockets from OTL sirca 44'-45' *]

August 11th 1949

A huge U.S. convoy, having suffered the loss of only several merchant ships to prowling German submarines in the cold harsh waters of the north, reaches Murmansk - delivering vast amounts of supplies for the sagging Soviet war effort. These supplies include fuel, radar guided anti-aircraft equipment, jet engines for the jet airframes being churned out east of the Urals, spare parts, and other critical supplies. Some of this material is destined to head straight for the front to Leningrad and Smolensk, or east to feed the hungry Soviet industrial complex out beyond the Urals.
After pausing for nearly a week to consolidate and bring up reserves, the German pushes on Minsk, Leningrad, and Smolensk resume with massive conventional and nerve gas artillery and rocket bombardments. A surprise surge of Red Airforce fighters partially disrupts German carpet bombing efforts although Luftwaffe fighters take advantage of this by scoring dozens and dozens of kills. Southwest of Leningrad the battle almost resembles the western front circa 1918, with German infantry infiltrating forward into the massive belt of Soviet defensive works there. At Smolensk, however, there is little resemblance to the Great War as an epic clash of armor occurs south of the city. Both sides lose many dozens of tanks, but by the late afternoon German mechanized infantry are pouring through a gap exposed in the Soviet lines.

August 13th 1949

With Smolensk rapidly being enveloped by the German breakout to the south, the Red Army has no choice but to begin pulling out of the strategic city. The Soviet Union cannot afford to sacrifice another entire army to serve as a wound in the side of the Germans as happened at Minsk. Encouraged by the early signs of the soviet pull-out, the German army smashes forward to the north of Smolensk, severely pressuring Soviet forces tasked with holding that flank until Smolensk can be evacuated.
Further north Leningrad is proving a harder nut to crack. German forces are now 17 kilometers due southwest of the city but have not made much progress in their efforts to push around the city to encircle it. With most German armor committed further to the South, the front here is not fluid.

August 14th 1949

German forces now control half of Minsk and the ragtag Red Army forces there are starving and desperately short of ammunition; yet 125,000 of them fight on.
At Smolensk the orderly Soviet withdrawal is degenerating into a route as German forces surge ahead on the city's northern flank and German forces from the southern breakout begin to fan out east of the city. With German artillery and bombers pummelling the remaining soviet evacuation route the Red Army repeats a chaotic scene that they've seen too many times before over the past decade - hundreds of thousands of men fleeing for their lives through a narrow corridor of death.

August 15th 1949

In South America, a tense peace reigns. Despite growing ODAS support for rebels in Bolivia, the SAFB continues to maintain a cautious approach, not wanting to anger the nuclear-armed United States. Both the ODAS and SAFB have been engaged in an arms race for some time, and south America is now heavily armed and fortified. Argentina, the most powerful of the SAFB nations, now has a large professional army, navy, and air force equipped largely with early 40's era German weapons and equipment manufactured on license by its young but booming arms industry. Chile and Brazil, the two largest ODAS South American nations, are relatively well armed with reliable but obsolete surplus U.S. equipment but they have not quite achieved the professionalism and level of training in their armies that Argentina has managed to attain.
Formally, Britain is at war with Argentina and by extension the SAFB as a whole - but there has been little action since a series of British air raids on Argentina earlier in the war and some trade even continues between the two under the table. Britain seems content to leave Argentina alone as long it refrains from allowing German submarines to base or resupply there; this fragile truce has held for several years now. South America's economy in general has been booming for a decade as all sides in the Global War desperately need the raw materials and goods that South America can provide. Undoubtedly this economic success is another reason that outright war has not yet erupted here.
The wild cards of South America are Columbia and Venezuela, still very neutral and quite happy to listen to diplomats and business men from all sides




TO BE CONTINUED...

208 comments:

1 – 200 of 208   Newer›   Newest»
Anonymous said...

Althist Fanatic here

Fantastic update Bobby, just in time for the holidays.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

Thanks, glad you like it

CJ said...

That was a jam packed update Bobby. Well done!

Question: Did the B-34s that hit Spain base out of new bases in the Canary Islands or British colonies in West Africa, or did they base out of somewhere in the western hemisphere?

I wasn't expecting the European continent to get nuked this early. Losing Cadiz and local airbases is going to put a crimp on the ability of the Axis to influence what's going on at sea in the region. It looks like the AfD effort to build and supply bomber bases in the Canary Islands has gone well. It's going to be interesting to see where the Luftwaffe pulls resources from to protect Iberia.

Hitler has to be angry that a huge convoy got through to Murmansk with barely a scratch. We could see a redeployment of the remaining 'Sea Dragon' and Fw-360g force to Norway to deal with this. Who knows, the HSF may even get some fuel for its big ships to come out and play.

I was somewhat surprised to hear that the Soviets are building their own jet airframes.

Keep it up Bobby!

lordroel said...

Wow nice work bobby this will keep us happy for a will.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

The B-34's that nuked southern Spain were out of the Caribbean. Iberia and maybe western France are about the longest practical range they can achieve from out of the Carribean for nuclear missions.
The bases in the Canaries and west Africa aren't quite ready for SBC operations.

Golladay said...

A few things:

When is the Satellite Launch going to be?

When will the new Supersonic Fighter appear?

Finally, will the German's get fuel air explosives? Even if they get a nuke, it won't be enough to take out the U.S. FAEs, however, can be very convincing.

Anonymous said...

olefin here

Great update Bobby - but have two nagging concerns.

The battle at Minsk has been going on for a long time now - where are the Russians getting supplies to hold out this long? They have been completely surrounded now for a long long time - cities just dont have food to hold out this long, especially not in a country that was on the verge of starvation already.

This isnt an American city with stores bursting with food - this was a city living on reduced rations that was barely keeping its citizenry above the starvation level.

I hate to say this - but to keep that many men alive this long without resupply would only be possible if there was wide scale cannibalism going on - and morale would have cracked for sure under that kind of situation.

Also they have been fighting in a chemical environment for months now - there is no way that they would have this many filters, suit replacements, etc to keep that many men alive for this long - they would have had to literally have hundreds of thousands of filters for their air masks, let alone new suits, etc.. under that kind of chemical environment.

Also the casualty rate for the Russians is way too low - it sounds like Minsk is a bloody battle where the Germans are taking a huge bloody nose - but the Russians have only lost 25,000 men over the course of several weeks. In modern terms that is a low casualty rate - hardly what a force that is running out of ammo and starving would be losing to "make the Germans bleed white".

Lets look at this in OTL terms - the Minsk force has now held out about as long as the Germans at Stalingrad - but there they had some supplies come in by air, they were not under the kind of constant attack the Minsk pocket has been under and they definitely werent under chemical attack for weeks. Yet the Minsk defenders have taken much less in term of casualties than the Germans did in OTL Stalingrad.

The overall update is excellent otherwise - however the Minsk force should be taking a lot more casualties and should be on its last legs literally, with maybe 50,000 or 60,000 men left alive and down to their last chemical filters and the end of their food.

But 125,000 men left alive and able to resist after all this time with no resupply of food or chemical warfare gear, constant chemical attack and out of food?

That is tearing the fabric of reality Bobby - and any historical story, real or alternate, has to keep that fabric intact or the whole story begins to unravel.

One other thing - Hitler promised massive immediate retaliation if the US or AfD hit continental Europe with an atomic bomb - which they just did, annihilating an Axis city on the continent.

Where is the immediate massive retaliation he promised? There have been no raids on London, no execution of prisoners, no large scale missile attacks on England or chemical retaliations against the British population.

He has done nothing except try to enact defensive countermeasures - which would make every Axis allied country think Germany was a paper tiger. He would have to hit back immediately with something - or the Spanish and Portuguese would be caving already.

The OTL Hitler would have done something - even if it cost a lot of his men their lives going in with conventional bombers against the RAF. And SW Hitler has got weapons he could use that OTL Hitler only could dream of.

ctwaterman said...

Excellent Post Bobby,

The Flavor is just about right massive losses paid in blood to force open cooridors for the German Mechanized Infantry.

As for Large numbers of people holding out in a city. The Russian did it with more civilian in the city for over a year. Read up on Leningrad. If the Civilian Population was removed and the Russian were using it as a logistics hub which they were the city could easily hold out this long. Of course not much longer on the ammunition side.

Anonymous said...

Im going to go with CT here. If that city was scraped of civilians, and set up to "Hold out" for a long time then I could see them making it this far. They HAVE to be VERY close to the breaking point though. It'll be interesting to see what Bobby does with that situation. One things for sure, there wont be 125,000 reds there for long, no matter what happens. On the whole GREAT UPDATE!!! I was very much looking forward to this, and have not been disappointed!!! Nice work Bobby!!! Enjoy your holidays all!!!

SWFCane

Anonymous said...

First sorry for my bad English and I post here the first and have to think about nickname.

I think the chinese will now burn with revenge against the soviets. Supplying the reds with weapons is one thing, deliver WMD that are used against the civil population is a complete different thing.
Another thing is how the other AfD members will react when the Soviets support terrorists with WMDs?
I think the chances for for a Soviet-Sino War will be higher by the day and this is right what the axis need.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

>When is the Satellite Launch going >to be?

There should be an update on this in the next part. Figure late 1949

>When will the new Supersonic >Fighter appear?

Probably also late 1949

>Finally, will the German's get >fuel air explosives? Even if they >get a nuke, it won't be enough to >take out the U.S. FAEs, however, >can be very convincing.

Both sides will probably stumble across this at some point. Anyone know when the U.S. developed this in OTL? I don't have time to research it right now.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

Hey Olefin,

Keep in mind that Minsk was an important transportation/supply hub for the Soviets and that most of the civilian populations was evacuated east when the front lines got close.
And they cached a lot of supplies all around the city even beyond the normal stocks in antipiation of a last stand. However, they are certainly critically low on everything by Segment 53.3, including food, chemical filters, etc, etc.

As for casualties, keep in mind in that last part I said there were "150,000 +". That gives a bit of wiggle room. If I say there were 160,000 in the city then that means 35,000 have died in the past couple weeks, and more than that would be wounded. So of the 125,000 still alive in the pocket, something like 30,000 and 40,000 of them are wounded to some degree.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

About China/Russia

Nationalist China is gonna have its hands full just dealing with the communist Chinese, them doing anything to Russia is a project for the future perhaps.

As for Alliance relations with the Soviets, they'll probably just refuse to acknowledge the Soviet atrocities because they need the Soviets to help them against the Axis. No one in the Alliance has any love for the Soviets but they need them badly.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

About Hitler retaliating for the nuclear attack on Spain...

..who says he won't? I doubt he would attack Britain proper with chem or bio out of fear of British retaliation on the Fatherland, even in spite of his earlier statements. Remember Hitler is a an evil bastard but he hated chemical weapons, he won't want to see them, or nukes, used on his homeland if he can avoid it.

However, some sort of conventional response is likely. Remember, the Rain of Steel has still been going on all this time, Hitler can order efforts in that area to be cranked up a notch. The Germans have been pushing forward with their missile development program.
It just so happens that the Germans have a new missile coming online in late 1949 that is accurate to witin 3/4 of a kilometer out to 700 miles, can carry a 2000 pound warhead, the warhead can air burst at low altitude, it is road/rail mobile, and it can be mass produced. Imagine the utility of a hundred of these aimed at downtown London. Still conventional, but potentially devastating.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

The way that the Minsk holdout reads in the earlier updates was that the Russians made a stand there mainly because they had to - i.e. they got surrounded there during the initial German attack - and that it was a scratch team consisting of whoever got surrounded there. I.e. it wasnt a prepared Alamo, it was more of a Bastogne situation where the forces there werent sent in with getting surrounded in mind.

The other thing Bobby - if they are living off a big logistics build up meant for the Russian Army in the North in general, then while they would be doing great, the rest of the Russian forces around them - i.e. like those at Smolensk - should have been taking much bigger casualties due to not having the equipment surrounded at Minsk.

I.e. the Minsk guys had plenty of filters and suits because they are sitting on a logistics node - but the rest of the Russians would be sucking wind for filters and suits because the Minsk logistics node is unavailable to them.

And at Leningrad over half the population starved to death during that winter - and the German attack would have caught the Russians with low food supplies because the harvest is still sitting in the fields, not in grain silos and warehouses.

Its just too long unless Minsk had the supplies for almost the whole Northern Front - and if they did then the Germans should be sitting at the Moscow defenses, not just breaking thru at Smolensk.

Look back and see how long they have been under siege - been a long long time - too long when you throw in chemicals, low food and scratch team unless that node had a lot of stuff in it - in which case the Northern Russian Army should have collapsed due to most of its supplies being caught in Minsk.

Danieljm said...

Excellent update. It's nice to see the Axis biggest problem, being way too stretched out, coming home to haunt them. Any simmering rebellions out there are probably getting ready to turn the fire up.

Olefin: Cities will have lots of protein sources other than human flesh. Food is really not a concern, especially if the city was a logistics hub before hand.

I imagine the ammunition situation went something like this:

As the battle went on, the Soviets took everything from the Germans. Eventually, groups of soldiers would be equipped with German gear allowing the Soviets to stretch their supplies further.

Now, lets give the Soviets a bit of luck, they have some skilled infiltrators who can nick a few boxes of ammo from a forward supply dump. Eventually the Germans are going to figure this out and pull their supply depots back for protection. It slows the advance, but does save lives.

Let's give the Germans a bit of bad luck. The local commander is in a hurry to close the wound, pressure from up top and figuring this could be his place in the Reich's history texts. He keeps ordering the supply dumps back forward.

It's the sort of situation that an enterprising Soviet film maker will make a patriotic movie about, if there ever is a Soviet film industry, of course.

The chemical gear issue is the biggest one you raise. I figure they are being saved by two things. The first being they are in a city that was prepared for chemical attack with a good number of chem rated bunkers built. They are probably able to bunker down in relative comfort and safety in these.

The second is the Germans are spread too thin to keep supplying all the fronts adequately. The priority was, considering the Germans, the offensives deeper into Soviet territory.

This also explains why Hitler's promised retaliation has not come to fruition: It simply can't.

There may yet be a response (barely been over a week!), but it probably will not be a massive bio/chem raid. The Brits can do far worse to the Germans on teh first count and Hitler does not want chemical weapons falling on Germany proper, especially since the US can see to it that the response is disproportionate in the AfD's favor.

I think a limited chemical raid on Scappa Flow would be in order. In range of missiles, has a tit-for-tat feel to it because it is a naval base, is an undeniably valid military target and could even help with a new German problem: needing to reduce allied shipping capacity in the north.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

The question is Bobby is will Spain and Portugal and Vichy and Acquitaine wait until late 1949 after seeing Hitler sit there and do nothing with his supposed "super weapons" after Cadiz and who knows how many other cities get nuked?

Reality - if he doesnt make a British city full of corpses within a month or less the Axis allied nations would be pulling out as quickly as they could.

They arent going to sit there and get nuked and hope Hitler's defenses - which didnt save Cadiz, Tunis, Tripoli, etc. - will save them while the British cities are only getting hit by pin prick conventional attacks.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

The question is Bobby is will Spain and Portugal and Vichy and Acquitaine wait until late 1949 after seeing Hitler sit there and do nothing with his supposed "super weapons" after Cadiz and who knows how many other cities get nuked?

Reality - if he doesnt make a British city full of corpses within a month or less the Axis allied nations would be pulling out as quickly as they could.

They arent going to sit there and get nuked and hope Hitler's defenses - which didnt save Cadiz, Tunis, Tripoli, etc. - will save them while the British cities are only getting hit by pin prick conventional attacks.

CJ said...

Like someone else said, Hitler may not have the ability to turn a British city into a wasteland immediately. Consider the scale of the battlefield usage of chemical weapons in Russia and North Africa - it's pretty likely that the German stocks are pretty low. Then there is the matter of delivery - how many of the CBW capable SRBMs are available in the west and how long would it take to organize a mass lauch on the scale that Hitler may want.

These things can't happen overnight in this era. Keep in mind that once upon a time the US reaction time for an all out nuclear war was measured in weeks. It's going to take time to gather enough of the right missiles and CW warheads in France and the Low Countries.

There is probably also a slight political dimension to it - Spain isn't Germany. Spain really is a secondary theatre and Hitler may be reluctant to go after the UK with CBW until Germany proper gets nuked or slimed. Scapa Flow could work. Crete or Cyprus would work as well. Heck, they could go after the bases in the Canary Islands.

Bottom line though, the Germans are not in any position to give guarantee a 100% shield over the peripheries. They simply lack the ability to provide a defense in depth.

Put it this way, the US just used 8 nukes in about a week. Now while we know that's about a month's worth of production, the Germans likely don't. From a purely industrial perspective, the AfD can erase cities using nukes and CW faster than the Axis can. What I think could happen is that the AfD and Axis go a few rounds on cities, then arrive at some sort of understanding.

Danieljm said...

FAEs first showed up as weapons in Vietnam. Even that is debatable as the specs for the weapons do not show them as being FAEs. Even if they were, they were huge weapons to have the desired effect (15,000lb bombs).

The record on the history of Fuel Air Explosives is confusing. There are sources which claim the Soviets used them in a 1969 border skirmish with the Chinese and others that cite the first Soviet FAE as being deployed in 1970.

Either way, you would really be pushing the FAE concept forward by having it come about in the current war.

Anonymous said...

Caracalla here...

Fantastic update Bobby!!! The Axis are starting to show signs of cracking! I have one question more like a request. Do you think that we might have an open rebellion in Finland against the Soviets? I would think that with the Soviets current sitution that would be very possible, and it could tie down lots of Soviet Divisons that could be used against the Germans!

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

Axis minor powers within effective range of Alliance atomic attacks are definitely feeling very nervous as of mid August 1949. They're all certainly well aware of it. In the case of Spain and Portugaul, their leadership is rather tied to Germany when you think back to what went on in 1945 during the Iberian campaign. Franco's and Portugaul's leader are right up there with Hitler and Mussolini in terms of how much the Alliance hates them. Their not likely to surrender, although a anti-fascist coup from within is possible if they come under enough pressure I suppose, ala Italy 1943 in OTL.
Iberia is an interesting theater. Its vulnerable to Alliance air attacks but not really under invasion threat yet given logistical constraints for the Alliance. But if/when the Alliance gets a firm hold in northwest Africa then it does become open to potential invasion. The U.S. has enough resources to mass in Britain, wage a campaign in North Africa, AND a campaign in Spain all at once if it chooses.
But first things first. The Axis are gonna defend the western Mediterranean to the teeth.

Anonymous said...

Hey,(james1982}
Nice update for christmas, it looks as if the Soviet army might be cracking around smolensk. It would be interesting to see whats going on in Sweden and Finland. If the Germans can hurry the soviets out, they may threaten the Port of Murmansk by air at least.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Lets remember one things guys - the Germans have nerve gas and a heck of a lot of it. The British and Americans dont - they basically have mustard gas and phosgene and other WWI type gas weapons, that while bad, arent as deadly as nerve gas is to an unprotected populace. And with Britain's supply problems of the last year there is no way that the British populace has been issued protection as a whole against nerve gas attacks. Plus to make matters worse for England - any German attack right now that contaminated large areas with chemicals, bio weapons, etc. would hit right in the middle of their harvest time - so German attacks could make a lot of their food supply that is almost ready to be harvested useless.

Hitler cant just sit there and take it - Europe has seen Japan devastated by nukes and unable to hit back for months now. Hitler was many things but he was a master of politics - and he has to know that if he cant hit back he will seem weak. And weakness is the one thing he cant afford to have anyone have in their mind when they think of him.

And in an era of jet powered long range bombers, mass production of long range missiles and jet medium range bombers that can easily hit cities like Dover he would have hit back within a couple of days.

At the least he would have probably ordered a mass execution of Allied prisoners of war, starting with every pilot and aircrew in his prison camps. And issued (and told the Allies about it) that until they renounced use of nukes that all aircrew that fell into Axis hands would be executed immediately.

This wasnt a man who would be thinking defenses - he would want dead Allied civilians and dead Allied airmen and in big numbers and right now. People who told him it couldnt be done wouldnt be having very long lifespans.

CJ said...

But do they realy have that much spare nerve gas sitting around? Given their consumption in Russia and North Africa, there might not be enough sitting around in France to lay waste to a British city. I'll say it again, most of the CBW capable SRBMs are likely not sitting in France - they are in the east.

I'm not sure anyone has "long range" jet bombers yet.

Yes, Hitler was a wiley politician. But he doesn't answer to the people of Spain or Portugal. Sliming the cities of people who can't hit your own cities is one thing. Sliming the cities of people who can hit back even harder is another thing entirely. The Germans are fighting two opponents armed with nukes and the production rate is only going up.

We already know that the US at least is resistant to dead POWs, so why should Hitler assume kiling RAF & USAAF/USN aicrews will change AfD behavior?

Bottom line, Hitler wants a masive counter-strike just like he launched against the Soviets when they started using CBW. It's going to take time to organize a heavy blow like that. Think about it. What's going to make the people happier and send more of a message to the AfD - a series of semi-coordinated pinpricks launched in anger against minor targets, or one massive blow against a major target?

Anonymous said...

Caracalla here..

Also another thing I forgot. The coming Arab revolt in the Middle East! That could change eveything!

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

The difference guys is that Hitler holds a lot more POW's than the Japanese ever did - i.e. the armies they captured in Norway, Greece, Portugal and France. Let alone a lot more airmen who have been shot down in large numbers ever since 1945.

Thus a threat to execute that many POW's - most likely over 400,000 men when you add them all together - is a heck of a threat compared to the 100,000 or so the Japanese held. Let alone the fact that the Germans have the captive populations of France, the Netherlands, Norway, Belguim, etc.. under their control - and the Free Netherlands, Belgians, Free French, etc. may have a few dozen words to say if the Germans threaten mass executions of the citizens they control in those areas.

Again the Japanese did execute Allied civilians - but there werent anywhere near the sheer numbers the Germans hold sway over.

So an execution threat here means the British lose the flower of their pre-war army and manhood that is currently in German POW camps - men like the BEF divisions caught in Antwerp, the two divisions lost in Portugal, the entire armies lost in Norway and Greece, along with tens of thousands of airmen.

And all it would take is for Hitler to lift a phone and make a call - and I dont see him waiting ten days or more to make that call.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here again

The Germans had an experimental FAE bomb weapon they were working on in WWII - based on coal dust. It was only tested once apparently in 1944 and never saw production - its not a MOAB or even as powerful as the US FAE bombs deployed in the 1980's - but it did exist - there are references to it in several books about German experimental weapons.

And while it is 1949 this is a world where the weapons of the mid to late 1950's are now reality - meaning that some weapons of the 1960's may come to fruition a lot earlier - some even in time to see combat during this war.

Anonymous said...

Caracalla here...

But Olefin you have to remember if the Germans start to go after the population of occupied Europe they will have a HELL OF A REVOLUTION on their hands! They have to many men tied down on the Eastern Front. I'm not saying Hitler shouldn't do anything but if he goes after Western Occupied Europe the Reich would have major revolts on it hands.

Golladay said...

I agree with Olefin, the Germans can indeed mass execute prisoner's and cause a big shock.

Britain can not afford the flower of its youth that were captured being executed. It would hamstring the crap out of their demographics and take decades to fix even if they instituted polygny.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

The threats of executions works for the Germans and against the AfD - the Germans are not saying stop all bombings or stop all attacks. They are saying use nukes anywhere in continental Europe and we will execute the POW's and civilian hostages that they will round up. Thus it will be the AfD's choice - use the nukes and they see those POW's die.

Against Japan they chose to use them - but as I said considering Japanese treatment of those POW's I dont think the US thought many of them would survive the war anyway.

And to say it frankly, the US really couldnt care less if the Japanese killed a bunch of Chinese or Malayan civilians.

However its another thing when using those nukes means every AfD prisoner the Germans hold gets the knife - and who knows how many civilians as well.

Plus frankly right now the Germans would probably get a lot of Portuguese, Spanish and Italian volunteers to help out with those executions.

Hitler has to come up with a way to stop the atomic attacks - so it either comes down to interceptors that can take down B-34's - which apparently they dont have, effective ways to kill a lot of British civilians - which apparently the board thinks they dont have either -or mass executions where the British are basically choosing to watch a lot of their pre-war Army die so they can use nukes on Axis ports and airfields.

By the way Bobby - you mentioned craters on Okinawa? Ground bursts right where your own troops are fighting? If they are doing that then most of those Marines fighting there arent going to be able to do much after the radiations sickness hits them from all the radioactive dust in the air/

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

A question - how is that huge shipment of supplies going to be shipped south from Murmansk? There is only one railroad line going south from there - one that is easily within German bombing range. They have to know that the huge convoy got thru - why didnt they blow the heck out of that rail line?

I mean its not like the Kriegsmarine is going to just so oh well we missed our shot - and not inform anyone that a heck of a lot of supplies just landed in a port that has one rail line to the south that those supplies have to go down.

That was one reason in OTL why the big breakthru near Leningrad had the Russians so panicked when they drove past the city to the east - they came very close to cutting that rail line and thus their lifeline to the West.

Anonymous said...

Why not simply let the others do the dirty work. Instead of mass killing POW`s simply build camps near strategic targets. So the POW`s will be killed when the target is nuked or shortly after when they have to rebuild the structures without prtective gear and the Axis can blame the AfD for killing their own man.

Anonymous said...

Althist Fanatic here

I think it's pretty much decided that the best way for Germany to 'get back' for the bombing of Cadiz is to basically slaughter all of the POWs. I'm not sure whether or not the POWs are getting humane treatment up to this point, but if Hitler sends all those prisoners into work camps instead of death camps, he can get something out of it.

As for that one railline in the Soviet Union, I daresay it's already at minimum capacity from constant bombiings. The jet materials will either take a long time to reach the Soviet industrial bases or very little of the original supplies will survive. There's also a very real possibility that the supplies may not even reach the surviving Soviet industry. Even if they do, the Soviet economy is stretched tighter than a drum and will suffer if they put too much effort into building those jets.

I agree that the garrison in Minsk is going to collapse soon. Their death rate has been steady for a while, but there's simply no way that can keep up. Their morale is minimal, expect a lot of mutinies.

There's another thing I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned yet. The situation in South America can potentially open up a third front. All that needs to happen for a war to break out is for the Allies to do something stupid in Venezuela or Colombia. Something like occupying one of them to prevent them from joining the SAFB, something that would make the other neutral nation do just that. If that happens, it's almost certain that war will spark and quickly spread.

Anonymous said...

Andromedos here:

Great update, Bobby! Especially the description of Okinawa is excellent and breathtaking. I could really imagine the inferno on that island, it was so intense that I kept looking for the next foxhole. ^_^

About the Murmansk railroad line: In OTL, german and finnish special forces conducted numberous raids against the Murmansk railroad, destroying many bridges, trains, and a good amount of shipping. On the other hand, the Soviet engineers were quite good at repairing bridges and tracks in record time, and at salvaging supplies from wrecked trains.
On the other hand, the Germans now have a technological edge. With better radio equipment, jetbombers, and helicopters, those attacks should be more efficient. How many resources can the societs afford to spend guarding this railroad through a sparsely populated area? A similar question comes to mind concerning the Railroads in Central Asia.

Concering Allied POWs. In OTL, they were used to work in German agriculture, to make up for all the soldiers on the front. My Grandfather told me a few stories about french and british POWs working on farms near his village. The POWs life at a central camp, went on their own to work on the farms in the morning (sometimes even by bike), worked on the fields, then had supper with the farmer families, then returned to camp.

With Mass executions, the Germans might loose a valuable workforce. Also, instead of outright execution, using them as human shields might be better.

Shadow Knight said...

I wonder if executing the POWs is a good idea. I wonder how many of them are being used as forced labor for the Axis war machine.

while Germany is not as critically low on manpower as the Soviets it has been mentioned that they are running low. So take out 400k or so POWs that are likely doing labor of some kind and you are either now going to have to go without their labor or somehow find workers (who it looks like are not there) to do the work.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

The craters on Okinawa were from low air bursts, 40 kiloton bombs going off a few hundred feet up. I seem to recall that this is the most effective altitude for tactical use of atomic bombs, something about a uniquely powerful blast wave being generated.
They wouldn't be well-defined craters like in a test range, rather it'd be a roughly circular feature where the ground is blasted into glass

CJ said...

It's not that I think the Germans don't have the ability to depopulate a British city. I just don't think they can do it quickly or with any reasonable frequency as would be required if the AfD-Axis started trading cities. The AfD may not have as many cities, but they can do better than a 1-1 exchange rate.

At the rate things are going, the world is simply going to get somewhat accustomed to mass deaths from NBC weapons.

If the Germans begin conducting mass executions of POWs or wiping out hostage cities, the US at least is likely to decide that Germany is a cancer that needs to be burned from the earth. Since we know that Germany survives, I'm inclined to think that the Axis and AfD go a few rounds on the cities before they reach some sort of understanding.

Anonymous said...

400k POWs are not a valuable workforce in forced labour camps. Remember that Germany has an inexhaustible supply of "subhumans" from the east they can use. These number in the endless millions..

Nice to see an update again

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Bobby how goes the other great battle - i.e. the battle to get the discussion board back up? Especially now that we have this update to discuss?

By the way CJ - read your reply to my question about missile boats being deployed in the current war. I think that you are right about their vulnerability to air attacks. Still they could be a very effective weapon - especially if used in conjunction with regular torpedo boats - i.e. to be able to attack from a distance and get the enemy forces busy defending against missiles while the regular boats try to get into torpedo range.

Anonymous said...

Craig Here

That was a great update!

I was quite surprised to see Nukes used in Continental Europe!
I would think that would send Hitler into a Rage!
I like the Idea of locating POW camps nearer to strategic targets. I think the Reich needs those men for labor and really can't kill them out of hand in retaliation.

What about some kind of retaliation on the US mainland? In OTL I know the germans were toying with the idea of fitting out U-Boats to launch V1s, maybe a dozen or so of these could strike New York or Boston?
Is there any kind of Amerika Bomber program going on in Germany in STL? Surly they have the ability or will soon to deliver the war to American soil somehow.

As far as the Russians are concerned I know in OTL the Lend Lease they were getting in terms of food from the Western Powers was enormous, if they're only just now getting some supplies through Murmansk surely a large proportion of their population is suffering from near famine conditions. Maybe a breakout through Smolensk with Axis forces piercing the Beria Line will get the people just giving up and overthrowing the soviet government. Something like Russia in 1917 giving up huge concessions to the Germans to make peace at whatever cost.

The Japanese Are nearly done, but I am certainly looking forward to the invasion of Japan! If it happens...

Merry Christmas Everyone!

--Craig

Anonymous said...

Craig Here

That was a great update!

I was quite surprised to see Nukes used in Continental Europe!
I would think that would send Hitler into a Rage!
I like the Idea of locating POW camps nearer to strategic targets. I think the Reich needs those men for labor and really can't kill them out of hand in retaliation.

What about some kind of retaliation on the US mainland? In OTL I know the germans were toying with the idea of fitting out U-Boats to launch V1s, maybe a dozen or so of these could strike New York or Boston?
Is there any kind of Amerika Bomber program going on in Germany in STL? Surly they have the ability or will soon to deliver the war to American soil somehow.

As far as the Russians are concerned I know in OTL the Lend Lease they were getting in terms of food from the Western Powers was enormous, if they're only just now getting some supplies through Murmansk surely a large proportion of their population is suffering from near famine conditions. Maybe a breakout through Smolensk with Axis forces piercing the Beria Line will get the people just giving up and overthrowing the soviet government. Something like Russia in 1917 giving up huge concessions to the Germans to make peace at whatever cost.

The Japanese Are nearly done, but I am certainly looking forward to the invasion of Japan! If it happens...

Merry Christmas Everyone!

--Craig

Anonymous said...

Craig Here

That was a great update!

I was quite surprised to see Nukes used in Continental Europe!
I would think that would send Hitler into a Rage!
I like the Idea of locating POW camps nearer to strategic targets. I think the Reich needs those men for labor and really can't kill them out of hand in retaliation.

What about some kind of retaliation on the US mainland? In OTL I know the germans were toying with the idea of fitting out U-Boats to launch V1s, maybe a dozen or so of these could strike New York or Boston?
Is there any kind of Amerika Bomber program going on in Germany in STL? Surly they have the ability or will soon to deliver the war to American soil somehow.

As far as the Russians are concerned I know in OTL the Lend Lease they were getting in terms of food from the Western Powers was enormous, if they're only just now getting some supplies through Murmansk surely a large proportion of their population is suffering from near famine conditions. Maybe a breakout through Smolensk with Axis forces piercing the Beria Line will get the people just giving up and overthrowing the soviet government. Something like Russia in 1917 giving up huge concessions to the Germans to make peace at whatever cost.

The Japanese Are nearly done, but I am certainly looking forward to the invasion of Japan! If it happens...

Merry Christmas Everyone!

--Craig

Anonymous said...

Craig Here

That was a great update!

I was quite surprised to see Nukes used in Continental Europe!
I would think that would send Hitler into a Rage!
I like the Idea of locating POW camps nearer to strategic targets. I think the Reich needs those men for labor and really can't kill them out of hand in retaliation.

What about some kind of retaliation on the US mainland? In OTL I know the germans were toying with the idea of fitting out U-Boats to launch V1s, maybe a dozen or so of these could strike New York or Boston?
Is there any kind of Amerika Bomber program going on in Germany in STL? Surly they have the ability or will soon to deliver the war to American soil somehow.

As far as the Russians are concerned I know in OTL the Lend Lease they were getting in terms of food from the Western Powers was enormous, if they're only just now getting some supplies through Murmansk surely a large proportion of their population is suffering from near famine conditions. Maybe a breakout through Smolensk with Axis forces piercing the Beria Line will get the people just giving up and overthrowing the soviet government. Something like Russia in 1917 giving up huge concessions to the Germans to make peace at whatever cost.

The Japanese Are nearly done, but I am certainly looking forward to the invasion of Japan! If it happens...

Merry Christmas Everyone!

--Craig

Anonymous said...

Sorry about all those posts, My internet is bad lately and kept saying page could not be displayed so I kept going back and trying to repost....

oops!

-Craig

Danieljm said...

Olefin: If you have books citing the German FAE, I would greatly appreciate the names and authors so I can look them up. I remember you posting a link to a website that was a crazy conspiracy website, nothing any sane person would call a credible source. Though that might have been for something else. hard to keep it straight without the board to look it up on.

The problem with ordering prisoners executed is that the guards might not do it. This isn't the Pacific where the rank and file on both sides are not quite sure the opponent qualifies as human. Killing someone trying to escape is one thing. Killing them just because someone tells you to is another.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Germans executed vast numbers of Soviet prisoners of war in OTL - and did kill British and other Allied POW's as well during escape attempts. Somehow I dont see them having a problem doing so here - especially if they enlist people to do the job who lost family members. I think they can find Italian and Spanish volunteers quite readily.

One source for the German FAE bomb of WWII is http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0786715618 - Weapons Grade: How Modern Warfare Gave Birth to Our High-Tech World (Hardcover)- a quote from the author follows

"That’s how thermobarics kill.

The basic idea goes way back, and anyone interested in the background - including a bizarre German WWII weapon, how a 500lb of coal dust can break windows five miles away and what new ultra-fine nanoexplosives can do - should put my book Weapons Grade on their Christmas list."

There are other books as well that I found previously that alluded to German FAE bomb experiments using coal dust during late WWII.

Golladay said...

Since the Board is still down, a few things.

German boomers with V-2s. They did a successful launch OTL.

Combine it with as much a coal dust FAE, they experimented with OTL, they can pack into it. Add the fuzes Bobby said will enable them to airburst.

Sail said subs all the way to within range of Washington and New York and execute Operation Aryan Fury. Should really bring home the war to America.

That and if played right, America won't know that it were sub launched ballistic missiles rather than ICBMs.

Danieljm said...

So the idea was first tested in the 40s and not put into use until, at the earliest, the late 60s. More likely not until the 80s.

That should tell you something about how difficult it is to get the desired effect.

Dust explosions are very difficult to produce. You need sufficient dust of the right size occupying the proper volume with the right concentration of oxygen and a trigger. If you don't get everything just right, your trigger will produce only a flash fire without the overpressure or true explosive effect.

Golladay said...

Danieljm, that may be because one the U.S. captured those documents, Congress was already cutting funding for weapons projects and the Military threw all research in Atomic Weapons and B-36s.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Considering german tech is at about the mid 1950's level and in some places is nearing the late 50's they may very well be able to come up with a workable FAE bomb - not a MOAB to be sure, but still one that would be very effective as a tactical weapon -i.e. a mini-nuke without the radiation effects.

Danieljm said...

It's just not happening guys. Natural materials do not make good fuel for FAE bombs and the science to make the artificial or modified natural materials for good FAE bombs is mid 80s tech, nowhere near what anyone has right now in SW.

As for thinking of them as mini-nukes, you need to get over that right now with a big dose of reality. Russia's current "Father of All Bombs" is claimed to have a yield of 44 tons of TNT. The Hiroshima bomb has a low end estimate of 13,000 tons of TNT.

Now, add the fact that the FOAB probably has to be dropped from a slow moving cargo plane (the Russian claim of dropping it from a Tupolev most likely being a lie), and we are left with a much less effective weapon that is much harder to deliver.

The FAE has a wonderful press agent. I am continually surprised at the number of people, such as yourselves, that think they are mini nukes. While we currently have nukes less destructive than the FOAB, that is more a reflection of how small nukes have gotten and not the growing power of non-nuclear ordinance.

FAEs are wonderful weapons. They let us get more explosive force in less weight than previous explosives. The overpower effect is great for clearing minefields or other obstacles. The vacuum effect means you can suck all the air out of a cave complex suffocating everyone inside.

Still, thinking of them as mini-nukes is erroneous. Add a few dozen more "mini"s to the front of that and you are on a better, if still not quite right, track.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

They are mini-nukes when you compare them to battlefield nukes of OTL Daniel - not the 40kt bombs of ShatteredWorld. And considering the effects they have in their blast radius the term mini-nuke is appropriate - the effects on people, vehicles and structures are basically very similar and they have a much bigger effective lethal radius than any other conventional explosives.

As for them not happening - again that is up to Bobby. There were experiments, of which at least one was apparently successful - successful enough to be referred to in multiple sources. Thus could an FAE be possible - the answer is yes, especially with the level of tech the Germans have already acheived.

Remember that in the 50's and 60's a lot of research went into nukes and conventional explosives basically stagnated - i.e. the bombs dropped in Vietnam were WWII bombs.

Here however the Germans, US, etc. have still been putting considerable resources into better conventional weapons - and thus may have made the breakthru needed for FAE weapons.

Golladay said...

http://www.uboataces.com/articles-rocket-uboat.shtml

The above is a site explaining the German Boomer project. Certainly usable as a way to bring America to the table to talk about peace on an Anvil of Necessity.

Danieljm said...

Olefin:

Did you even bother to read what I posted about the yields of FAE bombs and the nukes of OTL WWII? Let's take them a step further and look at some of the post war designs that could be rolling off the assembly lines soon. Namely, the Mk 7, the first tactical nuclear warhead.

Improvements in bomb design allowed these to be carried on fighter-bombers. They had a 20 KT yield. Here's an online source for ya: http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/systems/mk7.htm

Do you really want to compare that to what 500 pounds of coal dust could theoretically do?

Also, since you compare them to nukes, perhaps we should get a "Corn Meal Non-proliferation Treaty" going. I mean, that stuff is wildly reactive for the naturally occurring dust explosives.

Now, as for your latest unsupported proclamation from the mount, the one about the US using WWII bombs in Vietnam, this is certainly true. Indeed, the aforementioned Daisy Cutter replaced one of the models as the stocks ran out.

However, the way you make your claim makes it sound like they only used WWII era weapons. This is only slightly more ridiculous than comparing FAEs to any sort of early atomic weapons.

As much as I despise Wikipedia, it does have the best list of air ordinance used in WWII I could find on short notice. Yes, it does call some weapons FAE (which they are distinctly not, as you can learn by clicking on the munitions in question) it is still a good list of what was used during the war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Bombs_in_the_Vietnam_War

Many of these munitions were introduced in Vietnam, some were introduced in Korea. Several remain in service today.

Research into conventional weapons did not stop after WWII and kick back up only recently. It continued on right where it left off. Sure, it slowed down until the Korean conflict showed that not all future wars would be atomic, but it did not grind to a halt and it was right back up there on the priority list throughout the cold war.

The Germans could make a thermobaric weapon out of coal dust. I wish them luck in mass producing it. I mean, we still have industrial accidents with wheat and corn dust that has not been specifically manufactured to be explosive. Imagine a factory where all the dust is designed to be explosive. One ball bearing overheats, and the whole place goes up.

The principal behind such a dust bomb has been known since long before WWII. There is a reason why weapons based on the principal are a very recent development.

Golladay said...

Danieljm, we aren't talking about Thermobaric Weapons. We are talking FAEs. Hitler is at this time desperate for something to strike back.

He is sitting on an Anvil of Necessity. His Luftwaffe adjutant has probably already shown him a circular route map. On it would be Bangor Maine and on the map would superimposed an overhead sheet showing B-34 penetration ranges from there followed by estimates of causalities to be expected from an all out nuclear strike by B-34s on the Reich.

Coal Dust FAEs and SLBMs would definitely have his full attention now.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

The bombs they dropped in Vietnam were mostly WWII stock dumb bombs (in fact many of today's bombs are still WWII designed dumb bombs). The napalm weapons they used were of WWII design as well. It wasnt till very late in the Vietnam war (after the limitations of such weapons had been revealed - i.e. see all the attempts to take down the Paul Doumer Bridge) that finally things like Rockeyes and guided weapons began to see the light of day.

And yes weapon production facilities are dangerous places - ask anyone who lost families in the various explosions that have happened at munitions plants throughout the 20th century. However if they can produce a breakthru weapon that gives them a clear battlefied advantage - like the FAE coal dust weapon - then it will be worth the danger.

Danieljm said...

Golladay:

All FAEs are thermobaric weapons. Not all thermobaric weapons are FAEs, however.

Also, why would Hitler, in the face of atomic weapons, an obviously proven technology, suddenly become obsessed with a new weapon that is several orders of magnitude weaker? I mean, it's not like they don't have an atomic weapons program of their own.

I definitely agree that SLBMs are on the list of projects. Probably a later, internal design that would not alter the subs performance characteristics.

I think the best use of them would be a conventional strike on the docks in New York. Use of chemical weapons or a strike on a completely civilian target would likely enrage Americans more than anything else This strike would demonstrate that the oceans are no longer 100% secure and create much more fear than anger.

Olefin:

Why, whenever given evidence contrary to your position, do you just keep restating your position as if it is fact? Seriously, you don't even try and change your stance one bit to fit the facts. Look at the list of weapons from Vietnam I mentioned.

Most of todays dumb weapons are Vietnam era. They have vastly improved control surfaces when compared to WWII era bombs allowing them to have a truer drop. Heck, most smart weapons are housed in cases from the same era.

The explosive inside of the case has also changed over the years creating a number of variant bombs in the same casings. Generally, later models have more explosive power in the same case.

I don't know why you keep trying the same debate strategy. Almost everyone here really knows there stuff or can look it all up in a matter of minutes. Saying the same thing over without ever backing your point up does not make you right, it just eats up bandwidth.

You know what they say about doing the same thing over again and expecting different results. Mind you, I am saying the same things I have said to you before. I just don't expect different results this time. I am going through the motions for the benefit of new readers.

For those new readers thinking this is a bit pedantic, that would be because I am a pedant by nature and trade.

CJ said...

Folks, we know that the Germans will raid North America at some point during the current war. That's a given as Bobby said years ago that it would happen. Trans-Atlantic bombers and crude ICBMs were hinted at. So let's examine those, bearing in mind Germany's limited resources.

German Amerika Bomber: It's been loosely hinted that such a bomber is in the works and I'm not sure anyone would dispute that. But we can look to both US and Soviet experience in OTL to see that building an intercontinental bomber is easier said than done. I'd be very surprised if the Luftwaffe had one close to flight testing. This is something we'll probably see just before the war ends. Of all the possible programs, this one is probably the farthest along as the Germans would have an existing desire to raid further in the USSR and the Atlantic.

SSB & SLBM: Again, easier said than done. We know that the Germans had a crude SSB that used a submarine launched A2f missile that they used early in the war before their land-based SRBMs got greater range. Bobby said those boats have since been removed from service. As they were probably based on Type VII or Type IX boats, they aren't going to be very survivable in ATL 1949 even if they could be returned to service. So that forces the Germans to develop and build a new SSB that would probably be close to an OTL Soviet 'Zulu V' boat at best, and a new SLBM. Now if the Germans have been working on this all along, we may see something soon. If they haven't, well it will be a while. So it's really a question of where this was on the Germans priority list until recently.

SSG: A cruise missile sub seems like a more likely near-term possibility.

ICBMs: Now my understanding is that this is something that was pursued with a wartime urgency in OTL and came about as fast as they could, so I've got my doubts about the Germans pulling it off in the current war. Now I'm not saying it won't happen, just that their accuracy is going to suck and there won't be more than a few of them.


Bottom line, aside from the SSG, none of these are going to come out of a crash program within a short time frame unless they are already pretty far along.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Well if they do come up with an ICBM that can be mated to a nuclear warhead I have a feeling accuracy wont matter much - i.e. even if it misses New York and takes out Yonkers or Newark instead that mushroom cloud is going to be a huge sign that the continental US is no longer invulnerable.

Oh it may not be just the Germans who come up with a plane that could hit the US. The Italians had a workable plan to do it with a long range seaplane in OTL 1943 - the war ended for Italy before they could launch the attack.

One very viable idea for attacking the US would be with seaplanes deploying pigs with longer range to get into NY or Philadelphia or Boston harbor and detonate a nuclear weapon, for instance.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here again

By the way I notice the carriers keep going to the Philliphines - has Cavite been built up to handle carriers or are we talking the Ulithi atoll? I dont remember if the Cavite base was ever built to handle carriers.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Bobby you posted this:

Bobby Hardenbrook said...
The craters on Okinawa were from low air bursts, 40 kiloton bombs going off a few hundred feet up. I seem to recall that this is the most effective altitude for tactical use of atomic bombs, something about a uniquely powerful blast wave being generated.
They wouldn't be well-defined craters like in a test range, rather it'd be a roughly circular feature where the ground is blasted into glass

December 23, 2007 9:55 AM

If they use nukes going off only a few hundred feet up you are going to have a hell of a lot of radioactive debris and fallout not only on Okinawa but all over the fleet providing covering fire and air support out at sea. A nuclear blast creates a vacuum that sucks up material which then becomes irradiated and becomes fallout.

When you detonate a bomb at 5000 feet or more you dont get much fallout at all - which is why you could go into Hiroshima as little as a day or two after the attack and have no effects. However if you detonate the bomb at 500 feet you generate a lot of radioactive dust.

If those bombs went off that low a lot of US servicemen and sailors would be sick by now with radiation poisoning and the land they are fighting in would be full of contaminated radioactive dust.

You should think about changing your update to remove the craters - they make for a great picture but unless the US forces have the power suits from Starship Troopers (the novel not the movie) any low level nuke detonations in Okinawa are going to be deadly in the extreme for US ground and naval forces.

Anonymous said...

A question has been burning n my mind since the US started using nukes against Japan, when will the effects from radioactivity start revealing itself proper in ATL??

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Actually that question has been bugging me for a while - with all the nukes being detonated in the Pacific there should be radiation effects of some sort showing in places like CA, Alaska and Hawaii - especially from low level blasts where the contaminated dust would be blown across the Pacific.

ctwaterman said...

*ROTFL*

Oelfin you have nukes on the brain and radiation fallout on the brain.

Bobby can keep his cratered land scape sceen its very simply how many thousands of Conventional Bombs and Conventional 14" and 16" Shells has the US thrown at the Island. If you looked at Iwo Jima durring the battle it was like looking at the surface of the Moon Craters every where.

CJ said...

RE: Ulithi/Cavite
As I understand it, Ulithi was more of an anchorage/depot than a real fleet base with full repair facilities..

Given that the Philippines never fell in ATL and were relieved several years ago, I think it's more likely that all the repair and support ships and mobile drydocks that went to Ulithi in OTL went instead to Manila Bay (Cavite) and Subic Bay in ATL. Either provides a large, protected anchorage with ample space ashore for workshops, warehouses, and airfields.

RE: ICBMs
We've been through this before. Having a missile that can lift a nuke and engineering a warhead that can survive the trip are not the same thing. I've got serious issues with Germany, which hasn't even tested a device yet, getting to an ICBM warhead/RV by war's end.

RE: Seaplane Raids
IIRC, the raider's Z511s would have needed to land twice to refuel from German supply subs. That's going to be a riskier proposition in ATL 1949 than it wuold have been in OTL 1943.

Danieljm said...

To add to the problems with the seaplanes, RADAR coverage is going to be even better than in OTL with advances in shipborne sets.

Anonymous said...

Hey Craig here,

A really good book to look for is called

Reich of the Black Sun By Joseph P Farrell

The whole thing is on an html document at

http://www.thewebfairy.com/missilegate/rfz/swaz/index.htm

The whold premise of the book is basically that Germany actually developed the first atomic bomb, and also touched on other wonder weapons such as Germany's Fuel-Air Explosives, Ultra-Long Ranger Aircraft such as the Ju 390 etc. Its got a lot of evidence that really makes you think how much of what we have been told about the war is really true.

Happy New Year Everyone

Anonymous said...

If that above link doesn't work just type in Reich of the Black Sun into the google search, it'll be one of the first links

craig

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

If the craters are from conventional bombs and shells then heck make Okinawa look like the moon. But Bobby specifically mentioned glassed areas and craters from low level nukes - use those and hello very heavy radioactive dust, debris and fallout - and also hello very heavy US casualties from trying to fight in such an environment.

And they have to know by know that doing something like that would basically mean throwing away those Marine divisions and a lot of sailors and airmen on their ships.

So airbursts high enough to limit fallout while still causing a lot of damage- and then leaving a battlefield you can fight on without having to have body armor like Johnny Rico - sure no problem.

Low level bursts with tons of fallout - no, sorry, but that is taking believability a little bit too far to the edge. Especially after the US used ground burst bombs to specifically make Iwo a radioactive tomb for its garrison.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

Its a fair point about the craters. I think I'll change the reference to them to make them conventional craters. This avoids the radiation issues

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

CJ did Bobby ever mention if Cavite got severely damaged during the Japanese attacks on the Philliphines? They had at the least air parity if not superiority for several months at the beginning of the war - which among other things caused the US fleet there to pull out for the South for a while.

You have to figure they went after that base - and as was seen in OTL that base wasnt exactly one that was resistant to fires sweeping it from one end to the other.

If it was heavily damaged then a US rebuild might have taken place at Subic instead - only wondering because you figure if the Japanese or even Germans (although it means transporting a weapon a long long way) go after a major target with some kind of WMD that the main US repair base in the Philliphines would be a prime target - as Ulithi was in WWII OTL when the Japanese were planning to hit it with their sub carriers.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Bobby two questions about the Eastern Front

1) Is anything going on in the Ukraine now? Did the front go quiet or are the Germans and their allies still doing attacks to pin down Soviet forces? Area hasnt been mentioned since very early on in the German counteroffensive.

2) Have the Germans and Chechnyans done anything to get the Russians pushed back far enough so that they can get Grozny back up and running as an oil field? From what you said earlier it had been heavily damaged and production was a fraction of what they were making in 46-48 before the Russian attack. That is a very big oil field - much bigger than Ploesti and second only to Baku.

Danieljm said...

Here is a report on the effects of radiation from Nagasaki and Hiroshima:

http://www.uic.com.au/nip29.htm

Here is the most relevant bit:

It is impossible to estimate the proportion of these 103 000 deaths, or of the further deaths in military personnel, which were due to radiation exposure rather than to the very high temperatures and blast pressures caused by the explosions. From the estimated radiation levels, however, it is apparent that radiation alone would not have been enough cause death in most of those exposed beyond a kilometre of the ground zero below the bombs. Most deaths appear to have been from the explosion rather than the radiation. Beyond 1.5 km the risk would have been much reduced (and 24 Australian prisoners of war about 1.5 km from the Nagasaki ground zero survived and many lived to a healthy old age.)

There are other studies that show the radiation drifted much farther and had a some noticeable effect on babies currently in utero. I doubt there are very many pregnant American soldiers and sailors in the area, however.

No one beyond 2-3 km are getting lethal doses of radiation. The in utero effects are not taking place outside of the lands being hit.

Sorry, Olefin, but reality, once again, does not jibe with what you are contesting.

Danieljm said...

Before I head off, also from my link:

The second additional form of exposure resulted from the effect of neutrons in inducing radioactivity in various stable chemical elements such as in iron or concrete structures or roofing tiles. The total absorbed doses of radiation from these activities are estimated to be less than one per cent of that from the neutrons which induced them. They could however have caused a significant exposure of people who entered the city within a few days of the explosions.

The areas will be traversable in fairly short order, especially since most battlefield structures are not going to have a lot of iron and such. Marching in in very short order is going to be killing those troops. However, sending guys into the blast area a week later is not going to kill them in short order and very few will suffer long term effects.

Feel free to keep your craters Bobby, just make sure the battle timeline brings fighting to the area late enough.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

sorry Daniel - but the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagsaki both exploded at around 600 yards over the target (i.e. 2000 feet) Neither explosion generated a crater and neither was at only a few hundred feet.

So the radiation and radioactive dust released from such a bomb would be much worse than from a higher level explosion.

Also keep in mind that the Hiroshima bomb was only 15 kilotons and the Nagasaki bomb 20 kilotons - while the bombs being used here are 40 kilotons - i.e. twice as large.

So using the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs as your baseline for radiation in this case, Daniel, is not a correct analogy.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here - Bobby replied to me by email on the Ukraine question

here is what he said

Front in the Ukraine is basically static, although of course both sides launch small attacks, exchange artillery barrages, some bombing, fighters clashing, etc. Its never entirely quiet. But no significant movement of the lines.

Bobby

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Noticed something about Smolensk Bobby – if the Germans have broken out on both sides then the Russian lines in the Ukraine are definitely compromised – also it means that the Germans have broken thru the Beria line completely and would now be in the open with no more fortifications to stop them except for the defensive lines around Moscow itself.


They would only be about 60 miles or less from Bryansk – but more importantly they would be behind the Soviet defensive lines built around Kiev. So any forces there would have two choices – get caught on the wrong side of the river or pull back and let the Germans take Kiev.

So we should soon see - was the whole offensive a knockout blow to try to take Moscow or Leningrad - or is it really trying to pocket the armies around Kiev as its main focus now that the Baltics are clear?

Archangel said...

I think it's time to add a few notes about Portugal.
António Ferro (the local version of Goebbels) must be by now in a very influential position.
The same applies to Francisco Rolão Preto (the local fascist leader who was exiled in Spain) - in this timeline he may not repent its beliefs and became a moderate conservative like in OTL. He must be getting the post of Prime-minister or close to appease the Axis.

Also, if Bobby's mention somewhere of Salazar as President isn't a typo, it means he changed his own 1932 constitution and kicked out his own OTL President (Marshall Óscar Carmona), who was not very fond of Salazar. That may drive Carmona (who was very influential in the Portuguese Army) into active opposition, which will radicalize other OTL influential personalities. For example, his OTL Presidential successor (Marshall Francisco Craveiro Lopes, also very influential in the Army) instead of timidly trying to fire and depose Salazar, may try more actively to depose Salazar, given an allied succesful landing. He would automatically bring other would be pro-democratic conspirators, like General Botelho Moniz (I don't know his rank in 1949).

Archangel said...

Oh and it's a great update, Bobby!

Anonymous said...

I dont see the Allies having a very successful landing in Portugal anytime soon. Remember the Allies killed a lot of Portuguese citizens during the fighting there - and when they time came they basically abandoned Portugal to its fate - they were only there to get out of Europe not to make a stand and stay in Iberia.

Add to that the nuked to death Portuguese citizens and the fact that the Allies are apparently too cowardly to kill German citizens but more than happy enough to kill Spaniards and Portuguese - and I dont see the AfD or US getting welcomed by flowers when they land.

More like a lot of 9mm bullets fired from various guns, many of them held by irate Iberians.

After all the AfD didnt nuke Munich and threaten Berlin - they nuked Cadiz, the Madeiras and Canaries and threatened Madrid and Lisbon.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Sorry forget to identify myself with the last post.

By the way archangel - you seem very knowledgeable about Portugal and Spain - since the main site is down I can access your profile - are you from there?

Just wondering.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Have another question Bobby

in the initial attacks on the Canaries the German jet aircraft shot down twice as many carrier jets compared to German losses.

If this level has continued wouldn’t the US and British fleets by now be very low on aircraft – i.e. you mentioned repeated carrier attacks on Spain so you figure the Germans are defending with jet fighters.

Even with six to eight carriers there is a limit to how many losses you can take.

Are the US and Britain still taking that kind of loss ratio in jet aircraft fights – i.e. 2 AfD or US lost for every German or Italian jet?

Archangel said...

I forgot to mention that if Portugal's presence in AFD influenced Marshall Humberto Delgado to become pro-democracy (as his presence in the US did in OTL), he would take a part in such coup, given his technical skills and charisma. By 1949, the Fearless General (born in 1906) must be a colonel in the Air Force, and if such coup succeds, he may have what was tragically denied to him in OTL (a brilliant poltical career and Premiership or Presidency - according to everyone, he did won the OTL rigged presidential elections of 1958).

Also some historical founders of the Socialist Party (like Fernando Valle) and of the Social-Democratic Party (like Emidio Guerreiro) may have some important roles if Portugal gets liberated. They are in their forties by then.

And most of the OTL significant Characters are still young or banned like in the Portuguese Communist Party (who is weakened, depending of the part of Portugal one is speaking, but not defunct and may have a different leadership given Beria's coup, but that is something to be further thought).

About Emidio Guerreiro, he is either in the French Resistence (as in OTL World War II), or helping Free France (fighting or Teaching Maths) in Algeria, and if he returns to Portugal, he would help found whatever arises in the centre-left that is not Marxist and is anti-Communist. More thought will have to be done on this.

To Olefin:
Yes, I'm Portuguese :)
I know the feeling Portugal had towards the allies, its friendships, etc.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

See Archangel thats why I love this board and this site - you get a lot of different perspectives from all over the world - not just from the US but people like you and Roel and Trek - which makes the story really come alive since bobby can use those perspectives to help him shape the story.

Boy I hope the discussion board comes up soon - really miss it.

Anonymous said...

Craig Here

What kind of reaction do you think the public in the US would have to atomic attacks on Spain?

I'm from Northern Canada, so I dont know for sure on anything, but I've visted family in the States from time to time, and there are usually a fair bit of people speaking spanish where I went. Would there maybe be some kind of public outcry?

Craig

CJ said...

RE: Cavite & Subic
Given the amount of time that has passed since the Japanese invasion, I'm not sure it really matters if Cavite was leveled or not. It could have easily been rebuilt to its initial condition and greatly expanded by now.

RE: Invasion of Iberia
The logistics alone mean that the AfD won't be going into Iberia in force anytime real soon. The immediate priority is going to be clearing North Africa and getting the Free French back in.

RE: RN/USN Fighter Losses
Olefin, that initial raid was on June 2 - over two months ago. They've had plenty of time to replace their losses. There is probably a regular stream of CVE/CVLs bringing replacement aircraft and aircrew to the Canaries.

RE: AfD Retreat from Iberia
That's not quite what happened. Recall that a British expeditionary force based in Portugal invaded Spain and caused quite a bit of trouble. It was never more than a few divisions. They simply lacked the numbers and firepower to hold Portugal in the face of a determined Axis effort.

RE: Nuke Targets
Bravery and cowardice has nothing to do with it. Right now the AfD is going after Iberia for a few reasons:
1) Hammer forward U-boat bases and air bases to limit the ability of the Germans to project power into the Atlantic. This facilitates the anti U-boat campaign and the AfD build-up in the Canary Islands. In the mid-term, this will make AfD operations in French North Africa easier.
2) Hammer the Peripheries
Air defences on the peripheries are weaker than over Germany itself and the B-34 is still a somewhat scarce asset. It's important to remember that many of the minor Axis really haven't paid a real price for their membership in the Axis and in many ways are allies of convienence. If the AfD can pick a few off, it makes their life easier.
Also, the Luftwaffe is stretched and the AfD probably knows it. In the long term, they can't win a battle of attrition with the RAF, USAAF, and USN. Simply put: Iberia is currently where the AfD can get at the Luftwaffe in large numbers. They are goading the Luftwaffe into a fight they want. This enables the USN/USAAF to get some experience fighting the Luftwaffe and to get a measure of just what German defenses are capable of in mid-1949. Raids on Germany will come soon enough.

CJ said...

Craig, I think that's more a factor of large-scale immigration to the US from Latin America in recent decades (and a high birthrate among Hispanics) than any great attachment to Spain in the 1940s.

Americans who served in the Abraham Lincoln Brigade during the Spanish Civil War and those who supported the Republican cause will probably care more than most.

Overall, my guess is that the US government has been busy hammering it in to the American people that "one A-bomb = 1,000 plane conventional raid = fewer boys at risk" and that the folks back home are buying it thus far. Disturbing as it is, the ATL US really is coming to see the A-bomb as just a really big bomb that is reducing US casualties. Now once all the nasty side-effects on US vets starts to come out post-war, that view is likely to shift.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

CJ they may also mind all those effects on themselves as well. European bombs wont affect the US much but the Asian bombs are going to definitely put radioactive fallout in places like CA, Alaska, WA and Hawaii. And thats not going to go down well when they start seeing cancer rates skyrocket in those areas - especially among children. Dewey may not get another term at that rate.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Where the US would see some problems would be with their ODAS member allies. They would have seen the US nuke two major Spanish cities now and one Portuguese - but no German cities. That would go down very badly in places like Mexico where the US isnt that popular.

You would be hearing grumbling about how the US is butchering Spanish and Italians with nukes - but not Germans - or to put it bluntly they would saying how the US doesnt mind nuking Orientals and Latin speakers but somehow they arent getting around to doing it to fellow whites.

And no that isnt racist guys - that is how people thought back then openly - and there would be politicians throughout the ODAS who would be saying such things very publicly.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

CJ do you think that the US and AfD are starting to deploy the 2.75 inch FFAR rockets (like the Mighty Mouse) on their jet fighters? They were originally developed right around 1949 and they should have been put into service by now.

Just wondering as the Germans have been using air to air unguided and guided missiles for quite some time but you dont hear about the US or the AfD much.

Archangel said...

Re: US public reaction about the atomic attacks on Spain
I'm afraid that given the state of total war against the Axis, the majority of the US would see the nukes as saving american lives.

If I'm not mistaken, there were much less Spanish-speakers or with Spanish ancestry than now (the same applies to Portuguese speakers or with Portuguese ancestry).
An attack on a former AFD member would be of course be less well seen (case of Madeira, Portugal, although it has been determined in the board that the number of casualties was not very high) -> Brazil would protest in a very loud voice (a huge Portuguese emigrant community with no sympathies for the Axis, and the average Brazilian has Portuguese Blood, even if they like to use non-Portuguese names or surnames. In the US, politicians from California, New Jersey, and Massachusetts (who already had Portuguese-speaking residents and voters) might grumble, the same for Hawaii, but it's still a territory in 1949.

An attack on Spain will upset mostly on ODAS Spanish-speaking members (specially in the middle and upper classes) and of course in places with Hispanics in the US (Puerto Rico, New Mexico, parts of Texas, California, Arizona or Colorado). I'm not an expert on US demography in the 1940's but I think I didn't miss much. However it's preferable the opinion of an American expert on this subject (places with Hispanics in the US in the 40's).

RE: attacks on Spain
It's the soft spot of the Axis, it's closer to Afd infraestructures to bombard and it's a way to weaken Axis aerial presence in the western mediterraneum to better intervene in North Africa.
Of course the coming Arab revolt will delay the natural course of allied advance, which might delay or instead turn more necessary an allied invasion of the Iberic peninsula. Invasion that to be easier and faster requires AFD domination of the western mediterraneum. Otherwise it will be the old "Portugal and Atlantic parts of Spain to the Spain's interior and then the Pyrenees" route.

Anonymous said...

I think any potential German raid on America will push the public and military for desire of revenge. Why nuke Spain, when it is clear Germany should be prime target, voices will be heard.
I can already imagine the slogan "Let's nuke Fritz to the bits !" being published in newspapers and in radio.
I think Germany should be nuked soon.And possible with the intentions of either completely destroying its morale together with industry or to provoke a military coup pressing for surrender.

Berlin is an obvious target, but what other cities should Americans nuke in such scenario ? I suppose it could be one day bombing of several targets together-five or six major cities that are both large and house military and industry infrastructure of vital importance to German war effort.
If Americans feel generous they could also bomb either transport hub to Soviet Russia, stoping German reinforcements or one of the armies conducting offensive. In latter case the pilots can land in Soviet Union.
It has been done in OTL.

Anyway "Nuke the Fritz to the bits !" sounds like a good slogan catching the atmosphere of the world don't you think ?

Anonymous said...

I would LOVE to see the US nuke one of the advancing armies around the Breia line. Talk about total chaos. I don't know how doable it is, or if the German armies are too spread out or too intermingled with Soviet forces, but it seems that the US could alleviate quite a bit of pressure on their soviet allies this way. I wonder what Hitlers response would be to losing 4-6 cities in the Fatherland its self to American atom bombs at one time? I cant wait for the next few updates!!!

SWFCane

CJ said...

Well if Germany must be hit, I can think of better first round targets than Berlin.

Hamburg - 2-4 devices
Bremen - 2-3 devices
Kiel - 1-3 devices
Danzig - 1-2 devices

As for targets in Russia, I say Baku, Grozny, and any major German logistics hubs up north.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Nuking targets in Russia right now would expose the bombers to the full power of the Luftwaffe who is heavily committed in that area - I doubt many bombers - even B-34's - would make it back home from such a mission. Ditto Berlin - if there is anything that can shoot down B-34's it is deployed at Berlin.

However hitting Hamburg or Kiel could be doable - both would hurt the Germans badly - i.e. nuking the Kiel canal makes the Kriegsmarine have to ship everything all the way around Denmark.

Hitting the German armies really isnt going to help the Soviets much - not if its a front line burst - the Germans and Soviets are so intermixed you would probably do as much damage to the Soviets as you did the Germans. Hitting a supply nexus - if you can survive the Luftwaffe interceptions - would be much better.

And remember one big thing guys - the maps of the Soviet Union that the US had in the 40's, to say it simply, sucked. One big reason there were so many recon missions in the 50's by U-2's and the like was to make real accurate maps. All you dont need is to fight your way in, lose a lot of planes to do it, and then in the end drop the nukes on the wrong target because your map is off.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here again

I like the slogan by the way - Nuke the Fritz to bits is a good one - sounds very 1940's and a great rallying cry. I do agree that it would take some act by the Germans for that cry to be heard though - i.e. a Pearl Harbor type disaster due to German WMD's - for instance an American division dying en masse from Nerve Gas or from submarines in its transports, a US coastal city getting hit by anthrax or nerve gas, etc..

I also think that the longer the US hits Spain and Italy the more restive the Latin Americans and Italians in the US are going to get - being Italian myself and having a bunch of friends from Mexico I asked them what would happen in the scenario of the US nuking Spain but not Germany per this story.

I got a lot of responses - but when I postulated family members or home cities being hit by nukes while German cities were untouched they told me that most likely that would get a lot of people angry that their relatives were being butchered while the Germans who started it all were untouched.

What could that mean - well it could mean things like assasination attempts on Dewey, sabotage of war industries and other things by a small group of people who might get angry at Dewey's choice of nuclear targets.

Remember its one thing to go after the Germans - they started the war and the US population would think they got what they deserved.

Killing Spaniards, Italians and Portuguese civilians while Germany is untouched, however, isnt going to go down well with their relatives in the US.

trekchu said...

I have been reading through this again and have finally gotten around to look at the PAC map and I must say that the Japanese have gone stark raving mad. Every halfway sane gouvernement would have surrenderd by now, especially when the own country isbeeing slowly reduced to radiactive rubble. As for radioactivity: according to "Trinity and beyond" ( which I recommend to everyone btw )331 atmospheric blasts were conducted over the years, so as long as we stay udner that number we should be fine.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Remember that Japan has never surrendered in a war yet - that, along with military fanacticism and the fact that the Emperor is in captivity by those fanatics basically means that Japan and its leaders have gone way past looking at maps and resources. They are in a literal fight to the death - and may take their country down with them.

lordroel said...

Plus I think that the hardliners who are hiding in a underground bunker somewhere outside Tokyo also believe that with the soviet union no longer a treat the can fight on until their secret program is complete.

But that raises a question what is the status of that program the are working on in Korea.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

You raise a good point Roel - between the Soviets pulling out every man they can spare and the Chinese fighting each other the Japanese know that Korea, Sakhalin and the Kuriles are pretty much safe. While that still leaves them under US atomic attack as long as the Russians and Chinese are out of it they still have those three areas to get resources out of to fight on.

And I would also love to know just what is coming out of the special research programs going on in Korea.

lordroel said...

Yes Olefin I think you are not the only one who want to now what the Japanese are working on in that massive undertaking and why the united states not has visited it as the surly must notice something big is going on there and it not hard for them to diverted a nuclear bomber to drop a A-bomb on it.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

It may have not been noticed - who knows what priority Korea has on the US list for recon. They may have not even looked there since they have been so busy with Formosa, China, Okinawa and Sakhalin, let alone the Home Islands themselves.

Korea has been a closed area for so long that the US would be spending recon time there, if they do it, just getting accurate maps, let alone looking for anything to bomb.

Thats one thing to keep in mind - the US only has so many resources. Look what happened in OTL 1944- the US, with almost total air superiority and huge recon resources, totally missed the German buildup prior to the Bulge.

lordroel said...

Ah thanks Olefin so I can think of Japanese Korea as OTL north Korea with its closed society and militaristic nature.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

was reading the update again and finally noticed the little gem about trade going on between Argentina and Britain even though they are at war. Previously thought it was only the US doing that but now it appears the British are as well - which makes the US trade thru buffers on the Pacific side now not as much the stab in the back it seemed to the AfD as it did before.

I.e. if the British are trading under the table with the SAFB then why shouldnt the US?

Really that makes the blockade almost more of show for both sides - Argentina gets to look like a staunch ally of Hitler and thus continues to get technical assistance and the occasional blockade runner submarine with tools, plans, spare parts, etc. while still trading with the US and AfD and thus keeping its economy not only afloat but growing while Britain gets to look like no one messes with the AfD - but then continuing to get vital tin and other supplies from the SAFB so they dont have to risk an invasion to get those resources - and use men and equipment they dont have to spare.

craig said...

Craig here,

Given that its 1949, would the US Navy be building Midway-class carriers in the same number the Essex-class carriers were in the OTL? Or would have they gone to the United States-class?

Next, given that the only reason that the Montana-class battleships weren't built was due to a lack of ship construction space, would they have been built by 1949? The first four were due to be laid-down in 1945, so concieveably, they could have taken on Germany's H-Class (successor to Bismarck-class).

Craig

craig said...

BTW,

I think your book (s) are great!

I downloaded all of them and pasted them into a MS Word document.
Once I get the font (size-8) and formatting done, I'll convert it into a pdf file (with tabs to the Chapters).
Will be interesting to see the invasion of Japan. You better pick the right time of the year, otherwise no cross-country movement because of the monsoon-flooded terrain.

Craig

CJ said...

Craig,

Answers to your questions can be found on the discussion board. But since that's down, I'll recap for you.

Montana BB-67 Class Battleship
* In service in ATL. 'Montana' herself fought at the Battle of the Slot in PART 39.
* The class was originally scheduled to be laid down in 1941/42 with completion in 1945/46. With the different circumstances and building priorities of ATL they likely would have been laid down on schedule.
* Five were planned: 'Montana' BB-67, 'Ohio' BB-68, 'Maine' BB-69, 'New Hampshire' BB-70, 'Louisiana' BB-71
* It's not outside the bounds of possibility that a BB-72 class was begun in ATL.

Midway Class CVB
* At least six are under construction and will join the fleet by 1950.
* All things being equal, they should already be in service given historic building times. The best explanation I can come up with is that what we're calling the 'Flight III Essex' that were ordered after Pearl Harbor is really more of a 'Super-Essex' design that was ready to go while the Navy went back to the drawing board with the 'Midway' design to incorporate wartime lessons and the needs of jets and larger attack aircraft.

United States Class CVA
* I'd say there is a good chance that one has been laid down and will see action in the current war

craig said...

cj,

Thanks for the info.

Given that the the Montana fought in the Slot in 1947 (the Montanas were to be laid down within 6 months of each other), My guess is 4 of them (BB 67-70) are in commision with 71 and 72 on the ways. All of the Iowas (BB 61-66) are in commission.

Essex III was to probably going to incorporate all of the modifications in OTL that were scheduled for them, to include steam catapults, angled flight deck and armored fight deck. Since there are 6 of the original Essex's (CV 9-14), plus the Midways (CV 15-21), plus United States (CV 22) figure Essex III (Ticonderoga class) will start with CV-23. Original Essex's to be modified 1 at a time given operation requirements. First 7 carriers to be modified at same rate.

I'm not sure what to call the post-Montanas. I will have to look back at the BB list and see which name was due to come up next (I'm thinking of looking at the OTL Ohio-class SSBN, since they took over the state name group)

Craig

craig said...

cj,

I just finished comparing the Montana-class BB list and the Ohio-class SSBN list.
Here are my recommendations for the post-Montana class BB:
Michigan class:
BB 72 Michigan (under construction)
BB 73 Georgia (under construction)
BB 74 Nebraska (under construction)
BB 75 Rhode Island (under construction)
BB 76 Wyoming
BB 77 Virginia

United States class CV
CV 22 United States
CV 23 Constellation
CV 24 Independence
CV 25 Kitty Hawk
CV 26 America

The Essex class I will have to wait until I can go through and see which ones were sunk from OTL in ATL.
At least we know Iwo Jima won't be one.

Craig

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

BB names any BB-72 and longer may also take into account any losses in WWII. Similar to what happened when the US lost Yorktown, Hornet and Lexington - they renamed newer carriers for those they had lost. Not sure if they would do that here with any BB's lost since war start (i.e. ones lost in the fighting in the Solomons or at Pearl).

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

Thanks for the ideas for U.S. ship names. I'll file that away.

The ATL equivalent of the 'Midway' class will actually incorporate a lot of more modern features not seen on OTL's 'Midway' class. And it won't be called the 'Midway' class, it'll have some other name.

CJ said...

Craig,

You're a bit off with the numbering scheme. In ATL we've got three more CVs between the 'Yorktowns' and the 'Essex', six 'Flight I Essex', four 'Flight II Essex', at least fifteen 'Flight III Essex', at least six 'Midway', and any CVLs that were slipped in along the way. Suffice to say the OTL naming sequence is pretty off. I've got a file around here someplace where I've got it all sorted out.

As for battleship names, they probably stuck with the system that FDR started - which states had gone the longest without a BB named after it. That gives us:
* BB-72 Oregon
* BB-73 Virginia
* BB-74 Nebraska
* BB-75 Georgia
* BB-76 Rhode Island
* BB-77 Connecticut
So any BB-72 class would be looking at 1945/46 lay downs. Odds are no more than four would ever actually laid down with only 2-3 completing. The surge in carrier orders would probably do them in just like the 'Montanas' were done in in OTL. Off course, none of that means you get those ships in that order due to yard assignments - just look at 'Illinois' and 'Kentucky' in OTL.

craig said...

Bobby,

I just went over the Essex and Midway OTL class.
Here are my recommendations for names in the ATL
Essex class (6 CVs)
Essex
Bon Homme Richard
Intrepid
Franklin
Ticonderoga
Randolph
future names:
Hancock
Randolph
Cabot
Bunker Hill
Oriskany
Benington

Midway (OTL) class
Boxer
Crown Point
Kersarge
Reprisal
Antietam
Valley Forge
future names
Shangri-La
Lake Champlain

+ 4 Pacific battle campaigns

US class

no change

craig said...

cj,

I know about the naming system. Extremely confusing with all of the re-namings for the CVs

Thanks for the BBs. I was going by the next ones on the SSBN list not already in commission in the ATL. At least I was close on 3 of them. How do you define the Flight I, II and III Essex?

I would say the post-Montanas would have had the firepower and armor of the OTL Montanas, but the speed of the Iowas. The USN had settled on the 16"/54 as their weapon of choice. They tried the 18", but it didn't meet their standards.

Craig

craig said...

cj,

If you can find the CV file, can you e-mail it to me? (crofootcraig@yahoo.com)

BTW, Bobby,

If your planning for the invasion of Japan, originally the two plans were Olympic (Kyushu) and Coronet (Honshu). But because of the massive increase in forces on Kyushu, the JCS thought the plan was compromised, so they re-named Olympic to Majestic. Confirmed by Gordon Rottmann.

Craig

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Bobby how goes the other war by the way - i.e. the war to get the discussion boards back up?

CJ said...

Craig,

I found the file, but it's a bit dated. I'll shoot it your way once I get it updated. It's also got OTL build times and ATL availability.

About the 'Flight ??' part:
* I define the initial six ships ordered under the 1940 Emergency Program as Flight I - basically the OTL short-hull 'Essex'.
* Flight II are the four ships ordered under the 1945 "Oh S**t" Program after the Fall of France and the Fatherland Fiasco. Slightly improved to incorporate lessons learned with operations of the Flight I. Similar to OTL long-hull 'Essex'.
* Flight III are an evolved/enlarged 'Essex', but is really a new class somewhere between the 'Essex Flight I/II' and the 'Midway'. (My Conjecture: Put into production because the design was ready and Congress wasn't going to pay for the jump to 'Midway' size in peacetime. A few were probably ordered after the Flight IIs, then more after Pearl Harbor.
* The 'Midway's probably weren't laid down until 1947ish. As Bobby indicated, the USN probably took its time with the design - that's the only way to explain them not showing up until 1950 given that CVB-41 was laid down in October 1943 OTL and had a build-time of 24 months. So it has to be quite different from the OTL 'Midway'.

BB-72
If you have access to a good library, or if money isn't an issue, track down a copy of "US Battleships: An Illustrated Design History" by Norman Friedman. Basically, the USN though they could get 9x18"/48 on roughly 'Montana' dimensions. We've hashed this out over the years and come to the basic conclusion that the truth about the 'Yamato' would come out sooner or later and Congress would demand an increase to 18" guns. Factor in rumors/intel about a monster battleship with only six guns taking shape in a Japanese shipyard, and the 18" looks like a lock.

A 'Fast Montana' was looked at, but the size and cost nixed that idea.

I've never heard of the 16"/54. Do you mean the 16"/56 test gun?

craig said...

cj,

ok on the file. no hurry.

Sorry, I meant the 16"/50.

Actually, this site has the particulars on the study of the 18" (http://www.navweaps.com/Weapons/WNUS_18-48_mk1.htm)

Found out that the same ship size would have fewer 18" (6-7) versus what was planned (9-12)of the 16".

Plus given the rate of fire, it was found that the 16" BB could put more tonnage on target than an 18".

Craig

CJ said...

God I hate the board being down!

RE: US 18" gun
* Those numbers are correct, but they need to be put in context. The Washington Naval Treaty banned new construction greater than 35,000 tons with anything larger than 14" guns, with a few exceptions. The London Naval Treaty had an escalator clause in case anyone withdrew from the Treaty system than allowed an increase to 45,000 tons with 16" guns. So the first time the idea of actually putting an 18" gun to sea was when the USN was developing what became the 'Iowa' class. So on 45,000 tons, yea, you could get 9-12 16" guns OR 6-7 18" guns. Adding 15,500 tons as with a mod-Montana can however get you 8-9 18" guns.

It is also correct that the 16" had a higher rate of fire than a notional 18" gun. BUT, it's important to keep in mind that there was a world-wide naval arms race going on in the early and mid 1940s in ATL. Now while the USN knew full well that the Mk.7 16"/50 with super-heavy shells was the balistic equal of an 18" gun, Congress is going to look at a stream of Japanese monsters with 18" guns and possibly larger, and German ships with 16.5" guns and ask why the US Navy is still building ships with little 16" guns. They control the purse strings and if they direct that the next class of US battleships have 18" guns - they'll have 18" guns. That and the fact that aircraft carriers didn't really do anything significant util the Summer of 1945, Summer of 1946 really. And they didn't sink an alerted, combat-ready battleship at sea until the IJN's recent death ride.

And of course, who doesn't like the idea of 3,850lb/1315kg super-heavy shells crashing through the decks of ships whose armor schemes were never intended to keep anything like that out of the ships vitals.

*************************
On a related note, the book that is the source for the weapons data on Navweaps really is worth picking up. All kinds of data on guns, bombs, torpedos, mines, and rockets

"Naval Weapons of World War Two" by John Campbell

ctwaterman said...

*ROTFL*

OK CJ I admit the thought of a US 18" Super Heavy Shell plunging strait to the Magazines of a German or Japanese Battle Ship does have its amusements. Especially if the US builds their 18" guns so they can be relined on a regular basis. The Japanese 18.1" Guns had a useful barel life of around 250 rounds. If you go out and shot a couple of Dozen Practice Shoots with say 10 rounds per gun per shoot say what you should do durring gunnery training for a new crew you have gone through over half of the barrel life. If you then 2-3 times per year do some gunnery practice just to keep the crew in fighting trim in 2-3 years the guns need replacing. And the Japanese needed to totally replace the barrels when they wore out. This is one of the reasons the US rejected the 18" Guns.

So if Admiral King walks into Congress Slaps down a folder saying the reason the Japanese BB suck at gunnery is they cant afford to practice with there 18" toys and that once you start putting these things on Battle Ships You have to keep building the guns as fast as you can because they wear out as fast as you can build them. He then points out that the US 16/50" 2700 Lbs Super Heavy Shell has a better balistic performance and that its barrel wear is significantly less and cost significantly less then the Japanese 18/1" or 20" Guns. In addition he then say I and my crews would rather have 2 Montana's with 12 x 16"/50 Guns then one with 9 x 18" or 6 x 20"

Oh and he should gently refrain from using terms to the congressmen like you *uC**ng Idiots.

Bigger is not always better and while King might have to beat congress over the heads with the slide rules and balistic charts to prove that bigger is not better even congress should eventually get the point.

Archangel said...

The slogan "Nuke the Fritz to bits" is very 40's, I agree.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Unfortunately CT you and I both know how the military works - he has a bigger gun than I do so I have to get something even bigger and better. So even if it doesnt make any sense (like Japan building several Yamatos and Super Yamatos but not enough tanks after getting their butts handed to them by T-34's in the Eurasian War - but hey they werent going to let Germany build those Reich class BB without them having something just as big) the US most likely may have built 18 inch gunned ships even if they really could have stayed with the 16 inch guns.

Just so they could say our guns are as big as theirs are.

(boy would Freud have fun with a statement like that)

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Bobby by the way - I know you have had a habit lately of either nuking or bombing BB's to bits and not having them blown away fair and square with some big guns. Can we have at least one more face to face big gun fight in the story?

Be interesting to see a Montana and a Reich finally get to face off and settle the whole whose gun is the best once and for all.

Plus even better it would give CT, CJ and I a whole new thing to discuss for days on end.

CJ said...

RE: Japanese Gunnery
Actually, from what I've read, Japanese gunnery was pretty good during peacetime - almost too good. They were obsessed with tight patterns. In some ways that made hits less likely, but they were more likely to get multiple hits if they were on target. Short barrel life really didn't matter much if you were counting on a short war and a single Decisive Battle. That's what did them in on OTL - they got a long war where training was reduced and they couldn't afford to have ships out of service to replace barrels.

If you want to talk about short barrel life, look at the American 16"/56.

RE: B-34 Range Issues
We now have a confirmed combat radius of at least 3,800mi based on that raid on the Cadiz area out of Puerto Rico. The hints at western France up that to around 4,000-4,200mi.

After playing with the great circle routes some, it's possible to hit targets in Russia coming in from the Russian side of the line with minimal exposure to German defenses. I'm not saying it will happen, but it's not quite the same thing as going to Berlin.

RE: Nuke Targets in Germany
I'm surprised nobody caught why I selected those particular cities and that number of nukes.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Hamburg - 2-4 devices
Bremen - 2-3 devices
Kiel - 1-3 devices
Danzig - 1-2 devices

Bremen, Kiel and Danzig to take out a lot of the German navy and sub force - including most likely every Reich class BB afloat (except the ones in Norway)

And also while you are at it to take out the canal so that the German navy has to sail all the way around Denmark to get out of the Baltic.

Am I correct there CJ?

CJ said...

Olefin,

Partially correct. It eliminates the major U-boat building yards and the skilled workers. With them gone, the U-boats cease to be a significant threat in the long-term. Historically, there were 19 yards in 11 cities.

See: http://uboat.net/technical/shipyards/index.html

I'd also assume that a fair portion of the KM surface fleet are in Swedish and possibly Danish ports.

Taking out the Kiel Canal wouldn't hurt, but I think a lot of the KM ships are already too big to use the canal.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

By now I am assuming the Germans have fully developed for their own use the Goteburg shipyards in Sweden as well. They were huge and fully capable of building anything from a heavy cruiser size ship to submarines.

Add to that as well the shipyards in the Ukraine that they took almost intact and that are being used to produce military and civilian ships as well (canon per Bobby not me). Those shipyards were not touched during the recent fighting in the Ukraine and with Baku cut off are critical to the Germans keeping the oil pipeline open to Baku and Grozny.

DeathDemon said...

How about Trondheim?

IIRC, Hitler wanted to build a huge naval base, with several large shipyards there.

CJ said...

I'm just going by the number of U-boats built at each yard in OTL. Take out their ability to make good their losses in full, and the U-boat problem becomes much smaller.

I've never disputed that Swedish yards are capable of building a wide range of ships, but the vast majority of KM vessels will still be built in German yards.

I'm also not sure how useful U-boats built on the Black Sea would be. Getting large number of boats into the Med successfully is easier said than done. Besides, they are needed in the Arctic Ocean and the Atlantic - that's where this battles will be decides.

Anything in Norway should be safe from nukes, for now at least.

The more I think about Sweden though, the less sure I am. How much are they still viewed as "occupied" as opposed to willing accomplices of the Germans.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Have a feeling after ten years of German occupation and the fact that the Soviets pounded the heck out of Sweden during their invasion I dont think the Swedes are really a "conquered" people anymore. They probably are very willing allies by now - and if they werent before they will be after they see the damage in Northern Sweden the Russians left behind.

And with Turkey in the war on the Axis side getting subs into the Med would be much easier - basically as long as they can keep the Dardanelles clear - which shouldnt be too hard with all the approaches under their control - then they can send anything they like thru to the Med.

I asked Bobby about that - and he clearly told me that the Ukranian dockyards are producing the subs, patrol boats, E-boats and destroyers that make up the German fleet in the Med, along with the ships they need in the Black and Caspian Seas.

ctwaterman said...

I wonder about those Ukranian Ship Yards. They are great for building ship to be use on the Black and Caspian Sea. But the British control the Western Med from Crete, Alexandria, and Cyprus. Any E-Boats or Destroyers transiting the Dardenels would have to run the gauntlet of British Air & Sea Power to reach ports in Italy. Any Submarines built there would have a better chance but would still have to slink by British Patrols.

Basically how much supplies can you ship to those ship yards. If you are supporting them at the end of a logistics chain instead of as the hub of a logistics web as they are meant to be then they just arent that useful.

Basically are all the materials needed to build the subs comming from Germany and have to be delivered to the docks in the Ukraine. Also the docks can be comepletely untouched but what happened to the skilled dock workers first when the Germans took the docks and then latter durring all the fighting in the Ukraine. The fighting might not have reached the docks yard cities but the chaos probably did.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

They produced a lot of ships from 1943 or so till the Russians re-entered the war in 1948. Asked Bobby where the Germans are getting the tankers and the ships to defend them for the run to Baku and he said they are being built at that yard.

If you look they were only really close to being near the Russians for a short time before they were driven back - basically until Christmas of 1948 they were fine. Thats a long time to build ships - and that could give the Germans a bunch of subs, DD's, patrol boats, etc.. built since 1943 for the Med and Black Sea.

Most likely they were shut down or at least ran out of materials when the Russians cut most of the rail lines in late 1948. However the Odessa line was still intact so they could get supplies from there as well as from over water from Romania.

As for raw material - they had huge iron ore mines close by as well as coal and nickel till the Russians overan the coal and iron in late 1948. The iron and some of the coal is back in German hands but probably not up and being used yet - still being repaired and cleared of booby traps.

So realistically the yards may have only been quieted from around January or Feb of 1949 till around June when the raillines would have been repaired. And those yards could produce anything up to a battleship in size - so could they have made a bunch of subs, DD's, tankers,etc.

the answer is yes - and again not according to me but according to Bobby

however they didnt use them to build anything for the military bigger than a DD - no cruisers or battleships - so the German Med fleet isnt going to be operating cruisers unless they bought them from Italy.

ctwaterman said...

Hey Oelfin Im not saying they didnt build ships and the most useful ones would be the tankers DD's and E-Boats to escort them back and forth across black sea to transport oil.
If need be the Germans can put asymetrical effort into producing the ships - Basically ship in the engines and weapons and everything along that one railway line.

What I am is questioning it the use of those ships to any large extent in the Mediteranian. Basically how do you get the ships from the Black Sea to Italian ports without getting them sunk in very disproportionate numbers. The submarines its easier to accomplish but all the tankers, cargo ships, Destroyers and E-Boats are stuck on the surface and the British really do control the Western Mediteranian from base in Palestine, Crete, Alexandria, and Cyprus... Hmmm I wonder need to go look at Bobby Maps and see who control the Isle of Rhodes...??????

Anyway and ship leaving Turkey has to get by Crete to get to Italy either that Or it might have to get to Greece and pass through the Corinth Canal I wonder what sized ships the Canal is limited too....

So many questions so little research time....!!!!

CJ said...

Corinth Canal
Width at Sea Level: 24.6m/93.8ft
Width at Base: 21.3m/69.8ft
Depth: 7.5-8m/24.6-26.2ft

So most cargo-type ships and small combatants should fit.

That being said, it's probably one of the easiest canals to close. Seems that there are some geologic fissures that have resulted in landslides that have closed the canal for years at a time. The Germans in OTL conducted demolition work in 1944 that closed the canal for five years. A few Earthquake bombs (Tallboy, Grandslam) in the right place would probably close the canal for the duration of the war.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

I'm leaving for a weekend trip soon, but wanted to clarify about the German Mediterranean fleet first.

The main German naval effort in the theatre is on the Black Sea where they are maintaining lines of communication with their forces in the southern Caucasus and making sure the oil from Baku reaches Europe. They have tankers, patrol boats, submarines, and a few destroyers operating on the Black Sea that they build in the Ukrainian ports. The Germans shipped the complex components like engines and whatnot from Germany via rail.

The German navy in the Mediterranean itself is actually a separate force from the Black Sea fleet, since Britain still dominates the eastern Mediterranean. The Germans have submarines, patrol boats, and a couple destroyers operating in the Mediterranean itself. Some built at ports in southern France, some purchased from Italy, and some submarines that came from the Atlantic. This naval force is mostly concentrated in the central Mediterranean where they are helping the Italians maintain control of the central Mediterranean.
Oh, the Germans have a large naval aviation presence in the western and central Mediterranean as well.(Around the Black Sea the air power is Luftwaffe rather than naval)

Hope this clarifies things a bit.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Thanks bobby for clarifying the naval situaion in the Black Sea and the Med as to the Germans.

CT I never said they were sending a lot of shipping into the Med - I said they were building tankers and shipping for use in the Black Sea for the Baku runs. However I did think that they were sending subs and destroyers out thru the Bosporus to help in the Aegean and around Rhodes. As far as I can tell from the maps it appears the Italians still hold Rhodes and the Dodecanese islands and most of the Aegean islands. And unless the Brits used Grand Slams the Corinth canal should still be usable.

Thats still a pretty significant amount of shipping being built in the Ukranian ports - think of how many tankers you need to ship the oil of Baku across the sea - let alone supplies, tanks, men, etc.. to support the German, Chechnyan and Turkish troops in the Caucasus.

The Brits and US might be able to harm the Germans a lot if they can start to interdict that shipping.

ctwaterman said...

Pretty Much what I expected from Bobby Statement. And I agree Oelfin a few Patrol Boats, DD, DDE, Mine Sweepers and such might be moved from the Black Sea to the Upper Agean.

The Naval Air attack Squadrons in Spain, Portugal, Southern France, and Sicily are exactly what I would expect the Germans to keep the Western & Central Mediteranian under there thumbs.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

For the naval enthusiasts out there - what do you think of this postulated class of missile boats

size 500-800 tons - could be smaller in size but would want to be able to carry the armament below to give them a real fighting chance

speed - 36 knots plus

armament - 2 anti-ship missiles similar to those deployed on the German missile cruisers as the primary weapon, with a single 76mm dual purpose gun, two 20mm AA guns and two to three 12.7mm AA guns.

purpose - use in places like the Aegean, Balearic Islands, Dodecanese and other restricted waters as anti-shipping attack boats

primary targets would be merchant ships, destroyers and other escort vessels, not intended to go after cruisers or battleships so their missiles would be able to be launched from outside effective 5 inch gun range

would attack in squadrons of 3-5 boats, usually in conjunction with standard torpedo armed E-boats and MAS boats, where the missile boats would attempt to take out the escorts and let the torpedo boats close to effective torpedo range

Would basically be a very early version of the Osa missile boats but carrying only two missiles

I think such a ship would be within the realm of what could be deployed in ShatteredWorld as a realistic weapon circa late 1949. How effective it would be would be up to Bobby.

I could also see Japan try to deploy ships like this with their suicide rockets - but would be smaller, with one manned rocket and then a suicide charge on board to attack after the rocket was launched with the hope the rockets would clear a way to get close enough to ram an enemy ship

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Bobby what is the current gas situation for the Russians? They had to ground a lot of their air force a few weeks ago and rob a lot of units of their fuel to get some to the North so the units there could maneuver.

Are the units breaking up around Smolensk on foot basically - i.e. out of gas and trying to run from tanks and APC's on horseback or afoot?

Since Minsk apparently had a lot of the supplies of the Northern Army did it also have much of their fuel - and thus when it was cut off make the fuel shortages worse?

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

The Soviet fuel situation is.....bad to put it simply.
Think Germany circa late 44 of OTL and that probably gives a decent idea. They still have fuel sufficient for defensive operations and even moderate offensive operations if they ration it very intelligently. But they have no margin and their oil infrastructure, especially west of the Urals, is getting really hammered by the Luftwaffe. They're probably dabbling in synthetic fuel
out of desperation

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Have an idea on where the Germans can get planes and do so without a huge effect on their operations.

If there is one place where they enjoy a huge qualitative edge its Russia – basically they are shooting down a large multiple of Russian planes for every German plane they lose.

They could pull German planes from this front and replace them with Minor Ally air power and still be effective – albeit not as much as with German pilots and top of the line planes.

Between the Croats, Romanians, Hungarians, Bulgarians and Serbians they should be able to gather several hundred planes and pilots and use them in place of Germans pilots and planes currently being used on the Eastern Front.

They may be able to get a couple of squadrons of pilots and planes from Vichy and Acquitaine as well – put that all together, and while its not perfect its better than nothing – and lets them still be able to support their armies on the Eastern Front until the fall arrives and the rains put operations there to a halt for several weeks.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here again

Bobby are the Germans using naval bombardment to try to break the Leningrad logjam - i.e. using the Tirpitz or Reich class BB and some CA's to bombard Krondstadt and Leningrad from the sea to break the Soviet lines up and give them the breakthru they need to get into the city itself?

Also considering how much damage the Germans have done to the Baltic Fleet (i.e. all ships larger than a patrol boat have been sunk or destroyed) the defence around Leningrad should be significantly less than it was in OTL. There the only reason the city didnt fall was the guns of the fleet stopped the Germans cold - they couldnt advance under that kind of firepower in many areas.

However here those guns are gone and in many cases have been gone since Eurasian War times.

Considering the lack of armor on both sides the German use of their fleet here could be crucial to breaking the logjam - and they have at least three Reich class BB plus multiple CA sitting in Kiel and Danzig that could be off the shores of Krondstadt in a few days.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Bobby have a question - was either the Focke Wulf Ta-400 long range heavy bomber or the Me-264 Amerika bomber ever built and deployed by the Germans? The projected ranges of those planes would make them competitors to the B-34 and give the Germans a way to hit the continental US when they do get a working atomic bomb - or even now with chemical or bio weapons. From how the current German bombers are described they dont seem to have either the payload or the range of those bombers. While the Ta-400 was never built there were three prototypes of the Amerika bomber in OTL - two of which actually flew before being destroyed in bomber raids.

CJ said...

RE: Ta-400 & Me-264

The introduction to PART 43 would seem to indicate that as of 28 March 1948, they had not. Sounds like they were lucky to get the Ju-588 into service.

From PART 43, in regards to Ju-588
". . . Thinking back over his years in the Luftwaffe, Walther couldn't help but feel a sense of disappointment. If Kesselring and Goering had granted him more authority to push heavy bomber development during the Eurasian War he could have delivered the Reich transcontinental bombers with the range to hit America and eastern Siberia by now. Instead...instead he had been lucky to get funding to upgrade the long obsolete Ural fleet. However, as the threat from America grew and the war remained in stalemate, the Führer had finally intervened in his favor. Finally, in the twilight of his career, he had a heavy bomber to match anything in service in the world today - or rather - he had three such bombers, precious prototypes."

***********************************
On a related note, the Me-264 had a ceiling of 8,000m/26,000ft, the figures for the Ju-390 were 6,000m/19,700ft, and the Ta-400 was 8,900m/29,200ft. That's not going to cut it for survivability on a trans-Atlantic raid in ATL 1949.

CJ said...

RE: Siege of Leningrad & the KM
The KM coming in to shell Leningrad is easier said than done - look at a detailed enough map of the region, or Google Earth.

The Soviets still hold the northern shore of the Gulf of Finland, more than likely still hold Kronshtadt, and mays still hold some of the smaller islands on the approach to Leningrad out in the Gulf. Even without the guns of the fleet, Leningrad had formidable coastal defenses in OTL - who knows what they look like now. Basically, geography and distance work against the KM being able to conduct any meaningful bomb bombardment of Leningrad unless they can neutralize the northern shore of the Gulf and Kronshtadt. Honestly, railway guns can do the same job and with less hassle.

Now if the German marines want to go after the northern shore of the Gulf, then that's a different story.

ctwaterman said...

Oelfin about your small Semi Guided Rocket Escort. The Problem is exactly what is the Guidance mechanism. Is is a pure Radar guidance, is it visual guidance in which case at night when most small boat actions take place it simply wont work. Guiding a rocket onto a Destroyer sized ship which is actively jammning, and manuvering to avoid an attack is going to be difficult.

If you want to go after this type of vessel use the German Homming Torpedo in large numbers might work better. Basically how large is the launch mechanism for the Glide Bomb with Rocket assisted take off and how many Torpedo Tubes would it replace. Plus Im going to have to dig out some books and see just whats available in space on a ship that Small.
:)

Over all I's concerned about strapping that much high explosives in solid and liquid form on a ship that small and then putting it where a British or American MTB/PT Boat could shoot it up with 20MM/40MM rounds and cause it to explode. Small boat actions unlike Fleet Battles usually quickly disolve into a chaotic melee at ranges way to close for anyone comfort.

Plus the small boat would have to carry the a very limited magazine capacity of these weapon possibly deck mounts only with no reloads.

Golladay said...

RE: Siege of Leningrad & the KM

Well perhaps its time for the Reich Marines and SS to storm those Islands in a night Glider and Parachute attack followed by Helicopter landings in the morning. Said Helicopters staging from Reich Aircraft Carriers.

On these Islands separated from reinforcements, this type of Operation has a large chance of success. Not only that but if done right, can capture the Guns intact to add to the firepower that can be brought to bear on Lenningrad and Kronstadt.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Thats why the rocket boats wouldnt mix it up with other boats until they fire their rockets. With those on deck they are very vulnerable - but once they are gone they could fight close if need be. However I doubt the Germans would risk them in a close fight - they are there to hit from a distance, take out escorts and then let the close in fighters finish the job.

As for guidance - I would think they may use visual/wire guided guidance for day attacks or radar if they are only used at night.

Thanks for the comments there - much appreciated.

ctwateran said...

*Hmmmmm* Are you pondering what I'm pondering Pinky...?????

Ok some problems you a building a small fast light boat, she is not going to have the large mast like a Cruiser or Battle ship to put range finders and radars high up above the sea. This is going to limit you visual and radar horizons.

The question is at what range do you expect your 500-800 Ton Ship to engage the enemy. Because if its below 15,000 Yards the 5" and 4.5" Guns on most US and British destroyers are going to be very dangerous no matter what. Quantity of Fire my dear fellow has a Quality all it own... *Evil Grin* Ok so I have been looking for an excuse to use that version of an old quote.

I think the problems of trying to keep you helm steady while you gunner try's to guide a Missile towards an enemy ship who is throwing 10+ Rounds of 5" ammo per gun per minute at you is going to be painful. You ship is after all going to be larger then an E-Boat and just as vulnerable to proximity kills by High Explosive rounds.

Over all your boat has a place in battle but it requires you to control the pace of combat. You have to be able to fire from ambush and stay away from the enemy combatants. I think this will be extremely difficult to do as no plan ever survives contact with the enemy. Also given the use of Radar Jammers on US Battle Ships and Cruisers in the late World War II Period I would think by 1949/50 you will even see them on US Light Cruisers and Destroyers. It might be hard to use your radar to target the enemy when by using it you tell the enemy where you are. It would be better to use this boat in confined costal waters with lots of background to hide your radar signiture against and not to use radar guidance at all. Use your radar passively to detect enemy radars close slowly until you can visually see your target and then fire and run. The question is still can your run while someone is trying to guide the missile. ????? And if you cant then a larger faster Homming Torpedo would still work better...???? Basically the weapon you are proposing would have a few limited successes just like the airborne version did in OTL until counter measures were implimented. Its not a miracle cure for the Germans problems of simply not having enought ships.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

No one is saying its a miracle cure - but frankly look at it this way. You have to close to a lot closer than 15000 yards to get a decent shot with a homing torpedo against a destroyer before your torpedo runs out of fuel. Plus the fact that your missile moves a lot faster than a homing torpedo thus you are a lot less exposed to enemy fire compared to the long run in and escape run out from effective torpedo range.

And this weapon is also being used to try to take out the escorts first before the torpedo boats go in to finish off the job - if the DD's concentrate on the missile boats then they may let the torpedo boats get into effective range.

One other thing - this boat is designed for ambush tactics, not open sea warfare - remember I mentioned specifically using it in restricted waters like the Aegean, the Dodecanese, the Norwegian islands - i.e. somewhere where it can sortie quickly, hit and get back and do it with as little exposure as possible.

Which by the way is the same op for a torpedo boat - these ships wouldnt operate alone - they are the initial punch to try to blow a hole thru for the torpedo boats to get to effective range. They wouldnt in any case go out there by themselves.

Hate to be the British DD that sudddenly has to deal with a flock of fast missiles out of nowhere from what looked like PT boats on their radar.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

By the way - not sure who is still following it - but have posted several new areas in the wiki - mostly about nations like Ireland, Serbia and others. Take a look and see what you think. Included some details in the books section about the draft details bobby posted about part 0.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Bobby a question - with the breakthru at Smolensk can we now say that the Germans have broken thru the Beria line completely at that point? Those fortifications were definitely part of that line so if they have gone thru them they should be thru the line.

Now I know there will be other fortifications near Moscow that are older and date from during the Eurasian War - but would the statement that "the Germans have now broken thru the Beria line at Smolensk" now be a correct statement?

Archangel said...

I have seen the works on the wiki. It's a good progress and a good work.

ctwaterman said...

*hmmm*

I think we have to define break through here Oelfin. The Germans definetly broke throught the American Defensive lines in the Ardennes durring the battle of the Bulge but there flanks were still threatened...????

Basically I think Before the Germans have broken throught the Russian Defensive line they have to start flanking it and rolling it up forcing the Russian to abandon the fortifications. If they have only penetrated it but are not yet free to move roll it up then I think the term is they have penetrated the defensive line.

Over all Its pretty much up to Bobbys Pen which term is more accurate.

Oh a 500-800 Ton ship does not look like an E-boat on radar and nobody the problem with the rocket lauched glide bombs is once you launch them supprise is gone. Something about the distinctive rocket plume lighting up the night.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Asked Bobby by email as well - he said the line had been penetrated cleanly and the Germans had broken thru. So now the real question is what do they do:

1) Go for broke and go for Moscow?

2) Roll up the Russian lines by turning North and trying to bag the forces between Smolensk and Leningrad?

3) Roll up the Russian lines by turning South and trying to cut off the Russian forces that are around Kiev?

4) Do both rollups thus making the breakthru larger but also risking letting the Russians escape due to the dilution of forces?

Remember CT - at the Bulge the Germans were out of gas, on their last gasp and basically ran out of supplies against a force that rapidly managed to reposition itself to contain the breakthru.

Here its the defense that is out of gas and men -and there is no reserve to bring up or force they can pull out to stop the penetration without either losing Kiev, losing Leningrad or losing the Southern Ukraine.

Back to the missile boats - it is possible to fit two missiles onto a boat with a smaller tonnage - for instance the Osa I is very similar to the boat I described but was only 172 tons. A ship of that size could be confused on radar for an E-boat.

And while the rocket flare gives it away - finding out the ship has rockets on board that way is a little too late to do much good.

Thats like finding out the enemy has artillery in the area when the first pattern falls on your position - info is just a little late.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here again

For that matter the Komar class PTG was only 80 tons - and while it only had a twin 25mm cannon on board it also had two missiles as well - and was actually smaller than a German torpedo boat of WWII.

Archangel said...

The Russians can always bring by train reinforcements from Manchuria (pop. 50,000,000 in 1941), either they are a few Russian spare troops in the hope the Japanese don't invade, or Chinese conscripts from Manchuria, Mongolian troops or even retreating Chinese Communists troops.

Although it takes time to transport them across USSR, they would mitigate the effects of the German offensives.

When the desperation is great, unusual solutions are found.

___________________________________
For the Axis,

Options 1 and 2) are good for PR and morale, but means a predictable waste of manpower for limited gains (historical cities, and a few remaining ports in cold waters) and will require lots of troops to keep it "safe" from partisan activity (plus longer front line).

Option 4) will only consolidate what they already have.

Option 3) is costly, but the long term goals are more enticing:
complete control of the Black Sea,
control of the:
Ukrainian mines,
Ukrainian industries,
Ukrainian population and
Ukrainian agriculture (after some decades of environmental cleanup),
and potential link-up with the Caucasus Front to better secure oil sources, unless the AFD get there first.

___________________________________
Which leaves us with the question of how is the Iranian front going on, since it's the passage to an Axis vital asset, and the AfD would be interested in denying them the resources.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Actually the Russians don’t really have those manpower resources available.

If you look at the items you mentioned:

Manchuria – a devastated, depopulated wasteland from the effects of Japanese bio and chemical weapons with Russian chemical weapons thrown in for good measure. Plus the Manchurians took very large losses in the Eurasian War – something on the scale of close to a million dead or unfit due to wounds.

Chinese Communists – they are fighting with everything they have – they don’t have any men to spare for Russia

Chinese conscripts – hate the Russians with a passion – most likely they would surrender at the first opportunity – unless they used those conscripts to fight the Japanese in which case they would be a good idea. Plus the Russians have pulled out of Northern China and left it to the Red Chinese so any conscripts would be used by Red China.

Mongolia – didn’t have a very big military and has had very little to do with the current war – their whole army was about 30,000 men and they were all horsed cavalry – and Mongolia may be having second thoughts about being with the Russians for all we know

Transferring forces from Korean front – already has happened – all they have left is a few divisions and if they move those then Manchuria is wide open for either the Japanese or Chinese Nationalists. That’s why they pulled out of Northern China and turned it over to the Communist Chinese – they didn’t have the men to hold both.

Basically they are scraping the bottom of the barrel – as Bobby has already mentioned – they are gathering their last reserves which will take about six months – but doing so will basically destroy their agricultural and military production to do so and if they lose those men they are finished.

As for the Iranian front – when last we left it the Persians had just gotten their heads handed them in their last offensive and there was widespread discontent with the war and with the Shah. The wiki post I put up about the Iranian army is pretty indicative of their forces – I ran it by Bobby and he said it is just about right – i.e. they are holding on only because of Chechnian, Turkish and Iraqi volunteers and have enough supplies for a good defense but not to go on the offensive. Also they are currently dug into country that is terrible tank country – as Bobby described it to me it would be impossible to mount any kind of mass tank movement so its down to WWI trench tactics with good old leg infantry.

You have to wonder with the grumbling if the Persians are about to pull out of the war – which would basically leave Iran intact and thus block that line of access to Baku and Grozny. They only got back in because the AfD promised them support and a quick victory – and they didn’t get either. And bombing Iran wont work – they don’t have big cities or industry to bomb – but hitting their trenches with a-bombs would be effective. However I don’t think the Shah would be too happy seeing an A-bomb go off on his own country.

Archangel said...

Olefin, Manchuria's Population is big enough to conscript by force many soldiers, even with the devastation they suffered, and since the Soviets are desperate, it is feasible.
Remember that a full draft can include up to 10-20% (and sometimes even more) of the population.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Considering the previous performance on the battlefield of the Manchurians - they were bullet absorbers remember - and the devastation suffered by their area I have a feeling that they wont make very good soldiers if they were drafted. They may make good labor troops - but I dont think even Beria is that desperate to draft people who basically will throw down their guns and surrender the first chance they get.

Plus they used to fight for the Axis not the AfD - so given a chance to fight on the winning side (and the Germans are definitely winning right now) I dont think I would trust them very much.

Remember they faced a meatgrinder last year - and basically melted away in the face of the Soviet attack on their homeland. Why would they suddenly stand up and fight an even more overpowering German meatgrinder in 1949 - and do it fighting for the Soviets on foreign soil for a cause they were opposed to?

Archangel said...

The Manchurian population (already with an Han (the Chinese proper) majority), would not have been willing followers of Japan. Besides, the government of Manchukuo was made by Manchus (the Qing Dynasty), whom the majority of Manchuria's population saw as foreigners, tribal warriors that invaded and conquered China in 1644.
They would be as good soldiers for the Soviets as they were for Japan.
And Japan killed and brutalised millions of Han, even in Manchuria, so fighting an ally of Japan doesn't seem to look so bad, when seen in their perspective.

ctwaterman said...

*hmmmm*

I think the Question about the boats is based on when they were built. And how big the rocket booster has to be to give our 2 Ton Glide Bomb a decent range of say 25 Km or so...???? We also have to fit in a World War II Radar set if you want to use any radar guidance and they actually weigh a couple of tons or more ????


As for Break Through or Pentetration. Before the germans can exploit there break through they have to secure its borders and be able to move there own Gasoline supplies through the Gap. The Problem is in 1940 Once you broke through the enemy panicked and it was all over in 7 weeks. In 1944 the other side understands whats happening doesnt panic and then things get ugly.

I think the Germans are at the end of a very long and very fragile logistics chain. If they cant keep the supplies flowing and I dont see how they can without utilizing the railway lines then there break through will achieve limited succes and the bog down.

However if they can keep the supplies flowing forward say by the Expidency of stripping every Truck out of most of thier divisions and setting up the German Equivelant of the redball express then they can truely operate mobily behind the Russian lines. Now having said that I think the Germans still have less Trucks then the US did and have less engineer division to maintain the very primitive road network in the area. Basically they have 1 or 2 roads they have to keep open and the Russian know where all the bridges are. Once you get into the Smolensk Cauldron Gap many of these locations are withing range of artillary fire from the German Flanks.

Anyway it will be interesting to see how Bobby writes this one up because I could see it going either way but the cost to the Germans is going to be high even if they can exploit there advantage. Basically the Russian have to use Artillary to keep the Germans from moving up their supplies in a timely fashion and turn this into and Infantry and Artillary slugging match instead of a battle of manuver.

And they have some fresh supplies sitting in Murmansk that they need to figure out how to utilize effectively.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

The problem Archangel is that the Manchurians made terrible soldiers for the Japanese – they basically collapsed against the Russians and at best were human wave bullet absorbers – i.e. the kind of troops that you use 10,000 men to charge an enemy battalion and hope they run out of bullets before you run out of men. So I don’t see them making better soldiers for the Russians – especially since the Russian supply situation right now is about as bad as the Japanese situation was in 1948 Manchuria before the Russian attack.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

You may be off CJ on your radar weight - the weight of early radars was very large but by 1945 radar's had been reduced greatly in weight. Figuring the advancements by 1949 you are probably looking at shipboard radars that would be used by these ships of about one ton at most - and they may actually be as small as 1600lbs or so.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

whoops sorry - should have said CT there not CJ. Does anyone know if there is a way to edit these comments after they are posted?

lordroel said...

Nope sorry olefin everything you right here is permanent make me long to the SW forum.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

updated the wiki with an extensive post about Great Britain

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Asked Bobby about the Amerika bomber and he gave me this answer - i.e. do the Germans have anything in development like the Amerika bomber that can hit the US with either nukes or chemical weapons

Here was his answer

German refinement efforts on the B-31 are mostly focused on making it cheaper to build, more streamlined for mass production, etc. They are also working on a variant designed specificly as an atomic bomber. This variant still won't be able to reach the U.S., except in a one-way suicide mission I suppose. Such a mission is unlikely though since it doesn't have much chance of getting through U.S. air defenses.

As for the Italians, its probably safe to assume that they did develop the heavy bomber you mentioned that was equivalent to a B-17 (Olefin here - asked him if the Piaggio P-108, P-112 or P-133 heavy bombers had been built by Italy). It'd be useful in the Mediterranean theater especially if they make a naval variant.

As for the Axis hitting America. They do have a few planes that could reach the U.S. in a one-way suicide mission, but none that stand any real chance of penetrating U.S. air defenses off the east coast.

I suppose in theory the Germans could throw a hundred Ju-588's towards New York and just hope that the one carrying the atomic bomb survives long enough to make its drop. But that'd be _very_ costly given that they don't have more than a few hundred Ju-588's in total, not to mention the loss of all those crews. That'd be a move of desperation and it might not even succeed.

Conventional attacks are a bit more do-able. The Germans will have a missile capable of hitting the U.S. east coast before the current war ends, though it won't be nuclear-capable. And they have the capability to launch short ranged ballistic missiles from submarines as well. So you could maybe see some light missile bombardments on New York but nothing too serious. Propaganda value only.

Bobby

CJ said...

So if we phrase the questions as "do the Germans have a B-34 equivalent in the works?", then the answer seems to be no. Shame, I was kind hoping the Horten brothers might have something to show.

It's nice to know that the Germans won't be using ICBMs to drop nukes on North America during the current war.

Though it does seem as though the KM have a new SSB in the works. That's going to make things interesting down the line as the USN redeploys ASW assets to deal with them.

CJ said...

Ran some naval questions by Bobby in preparation for finishing my RN Battle History fic and starting on the IJN and USN ones.

The results:
* There were other USN carriers not at Pearl Harbor besides the three known to be in San Francisco. Others were at sea elsewhere in the Pacific or in the yard.
* The IJN and USN each lost a battleship at the Battle of Bougainville.
* The USN did build some post-'Montana' battleships, the BB-72 'Oregon' class.
* The Japanese withdrew from the naval treaty system in more dramatic fashion than in OTL, building a "Treaty Legal" 16"-armed battleship instead of re-militarizing "Hiei". This was a one-of ship a few years before the 'Yamatos' were begun. This is how the USN was able to "legally" build those extra CVs before the 'Essex' class.
* As a result of the above, the RN's 'King George V' class were built to the original 9x15" specification instead of the OTL 10x14" design.
* The OTL 'Malta' class CVs will be the 'Revenge" class in ATL and the first one is in service.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Good info there CJ - that definitely explains the US going way over the treaty limits for carriers - especially since the Japanese also seem to have built a lot more carriers than they did in OTL as well (from what I have been able to estimate you have to figure they had all six of the OTL Pearl Harbor carriers plus most likely at least three Taiho's in service by the time of the strike along with the smaller carriers like Shoho, Ryujo, Junyo, etc..)

However they couldnt have had too many in the Pacific - if you read the timeline they were very short of carriers for almost a year after Pearl.

I am surprised too that Bobby hasnt had the Germans working on at least a prototype of the Amerika bomber - they have actually built heavy bombers here and a significant number between the Ju-588 and the Ural bomber.

They should have built at least a small number of Amerika bombers by now - even if they only use them for high priority cargo to Japan (from Baku I think they could just reach Korea on one way flights).

And the potential payoff for even a single nuke going off in the US is huge - for propaganda if nothing else - i.e. if German cities start to go up under mushroom clouds then Hitler had better be able to make NYC or Boston or Charleston go up or the German people's morale is going to go in the toilet quick, to say nothing of minor Axis powers like Croatia, Serbia, etc..

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

CJ would this BB be a treaty legal Nagato class BB but built to Treaty limits? Or would it be something completely different?

Also did Bobby give any insights on whether the US ever build any of the CVL's as they did in OTL?

CJ said...

USN Carriers:
Based on what Bobby has said in the past and what we know from the story, the USN had 16 CVs at the time of Pearl Harbor:
* 2 Constellation (OTL Lexington)
* 1 Ranger
* 4 Yorktown
* 3 Improved Yorktown
* 6 Essex
We also know that ten of those were in PACFLT:
* 3 Essex at Pearl Harbor
* 1 Essex and 2 other CV in San Fransisco
* 4 CV unaccounted for
Between covering Hawaii, escorting convoys to the South Pacific/Australia, minor skirmishes , possibly covering the Indian Ocean, yard time, possible losses of oilers, and the time it would take to build up the fleet train - it's possible to explain all kinds of squirrely things about USN deployments in the Pacific.

IJN Construction
No, not 'Nagatos'. The Japanese worked in a series of "Treaty-Legal"designs in the early 1930s to replace the 'Kongos' when they became overage (20 years) but didn't build them due to the 1930 London Treaty. In ATL what likely happened, and what I proposed to Bobby, was that the Japanese dusted off these plans in 1934 when they withdrew from the Treaty System and laid one down in early 1935 while they were working on the 'Yamato' design. They then told the rest of the world that the 'Yamatos' were an improved 'Battleship 1935'.

US CVLs:
We didn't get into that. Though I surmise that some custom CVLs have been built to equip ASW Hunter-Killer groups.

Amerika Bomber:
Ju-290s could do one-way trips to eastern China or Korea just fine.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Bobby really needs to fix the timeline as to carriers. In part 36 he identifies the Hornet as the only Essex carrier in the Pacific steaming toward Hawaii along with two older CV's.

Then in update 37 he says that Wasp is the only remaining Essex CV in the Pacific and that the US has about six older CV's in each ocean (giving them 18 carriers before Pearl - although some were only CVE).

He specifically mentions that the only true carrier task force is one of Wasp and two older CV's off Hawaii and that there arent any off the Philliphines. So where the heck are the other 4 CV's?

It had been over 2 months since Pearl by that date - if they had been there they would have joined Wasp in that carrier task force.

However if 3 of those 4 were CVE's or the Ranger then that makes sense - there is no way you want to take a CVE or Ranger into a fleet carrier battle unless you basically want to see them sunk.

That would leave one older CV to cover the Solomons per the story and the other three carriers being too small to be of use in a fleet battle.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here again

My estimated IJN carrier fleet that would support his story as to numbers would have been as follows:

At time of Pearl Harbor attack:

CV

Carrier Division 1 - Akagi, Kaga,
Carrier Division 2 - Soryu, Hiryu
Carrier Division 5 - Shokaku, Zuikaku
Carrier Division 6 - Taiho, Amagi (Taiho class 801)
Carrier Division 7 - Katsuragi (Taiho class 802), Aso (improved Taiho class 5021) – this Carrier Division would still be in training and thus not operational until the late fall of 1946 and thus not at Pearl

CVL
Carrier Division 3 – Shoho, Zuiho
Carrier Division 4 – Ryujo, Junyo
Carrier Division 8 – Chitose, Chiyoda (figure the conversions were started in 45 when Japan decided on war) – also in training so would join the fleet by Oct –Nov of 46

Training carriers – Hosho, Ryuho – used operationally until CaDiv8 ready for action – consider them as CVE – both may possibly still be afloat in Japan as they would have been of little use even at the death ride and would be in line with them surviving as they did in OTL as they weren’t really able to operate other than training carriers

CVE – Taiyo, Chuyo, Unyo

Under construction:
Improved Taiho class numbers Kasagi (5022), Unryu (5023), Shinano (5024), 5025
CV conversion Hiyo
CVL conversion Nisshin

My estimate for carriers that were completed after the war began until Japan had to stop new heavy ship construction to concentrate on merchants, subs and convoy escorts due to fuel cutbacks:

CV – Kasagi ( Oct. 1947), Unryu (July 1948), Hiyo ( June 1947), Shinano (but completed so late that her only action was the death ride of the IJN) – figure 5025 never completed and scrapped on the ways
CVL Nisshin, possibly Ibuki as well (conversion done after carrier losses of 47)
CVE – Kaiyo, Shinyo, probably 4-6 others (army escort carriers as planned in OTL used exclusively to escort convoys)

That would give a total active strength during the entire war of all types of:

CV – 14
CVL – 8
CVE – 11-13 (2 being training carriers)

Figure that the CV and CVL’s would be the carriers of Bobby’s battles and the CVE’s are peripheral to the story and not really part of the carrier count

ctwaterman said...

Good Lord - I look at the numbers of CV the Japanese are deploying and while I cant argue with the number based on the storyline I just find it nearly inconceivable that the Japanese could have maintained a training program that was turning out enough pilots to man 14 CV & 8 CVL - this is basically the size roughly of the US 7th Fleet durring late 1944/45 with well over a 1000 combat aircraft.

I can just barely see the Japanese getting there crews trained up but once losses started ..... :)

CJ said...

I've got some questions out to Bobby on the US CV stuff, so we'll see what he says.

On the IJN CVs, it's a bit more complicated than going off of a historical list. Basically you have to look at the historic building plans, figure out how the Eurasian War screwed with resource allocation and money, consider that the Gun Club seems to have maintained power over the Carrier Club for longer than in OTL, figure out when Japan decided on war with the US/AfD, and figure out their war building program.

A lot of those conversion CVLs could also be converted to tankers. Given some of the ops the IJN pulled of in ATL, there is a stronger argument for those ships being converted to tankers in ATL.

'Ibuki' and her sister would have been completed as CAs by 1944, same for 'Shinano' as a BB.

I'm digging through some sources right now and I'll try to have something up later this weekend with specifics.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

I dont agree with you on the tankers CJ - and the main reason is the sheer number of carriers in the story. While I did use historical names I am not implying that Shinano was Yamato class - just used the name for an improved Taiho CV since it was a historical Japanese CV name.

If you look at comments Bobby makes in the timeline - things like only 5 CV's being available in the Central Pacific since others have been dispatched to three other areas, the losses early on that didnt seem to concern the Japanese that much (i.e. the carriers lost in the Solomons and near Singapore), etc.. you see that Japan must have truly had a very massive carrier fleet compared to OTL.

And CT I think that you are right - they most likely did get enough pilots trained for the initial manning - but once they lost pilots as they had to with the kind of intense operations seen here the quality of their carrier aviators must have pretty rapidly declined.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

I dont agree with you on the tankers CJ - and the main reason is the sheer number of carriers in the story. While I did use historical names I am not implying that Shinano was Yamato class - just used the name for an improved Taiho CV since it was a historical Japanese CV name.

If you look at comments Bobby makes in the timeline - things like only 5 CV's being available in the Central Pacific since others have been dispatched to three other areas, the losses early on that didnt seem to concern the Japanese that much (i.e. the carriers lost in the Solomons and near Singapore), etc.. you see that Japan must have truly had a very massive carrier fleet compared to OTL.

And CT I think that you are right - they most likely did get enough pilots trained for the initial manning - but once they lost pilots as they had to with the kind of intense operations seen here the quality of their carrier aviators must have pretty rapidly declined.

ctwaterman said...

I agree CJ that the Japanese are going to need more tankers lots more tankers if they want to even keep some of those ships at sea for any period of time.

I do wonder where all the extra oil to run all the extra ships and fill all the extra tankers and train all those extra pilots came from starting in 1941 and going through to the start of the US / Japanese war. I mean all the Oil in Iraq simply isnt enough to supply Japan with what it needs and who's tankers are going to deliver that oil to Japan.

I think we have to have Japan do something that doesnt scare the Dutch into agreeing with the United States on the Oil Embargo. Which isnt so hard with France and Holland not being occupied.

Even so once the European War kicks off Japan is cut off from its supplies of oil rather quickly which can explain its rapid entry into the war.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

There is one big source of oil that Japan had that they didnt have in OTL - and that is Argentina, Bolivia and Peru - which would have sold them oil in exchange for military equipment, resources (Japan did have iron ore and coal that the SAFB needed from their home islands plus deposits in China, Manchuria and the areas they occupied in Russia), and plain old money

That oil, combined with oil shipped from Iraq and Germany (i.e. Baku, Grozny, Ploesti, etc..) is what Japan lived on and was able to build their military machine on.

By the way one place their tankers may have come from could have been German, Italian,etc.. tankers caught in Japan at the wars start. There would have been a lot of tanker traffic to Japan and thus they may have gotten a good sized infusion of tanker tonnage just from Axis ships that couldnt get home.

ctwaterman said...

*Chuckles*

Ok, Oelfin I wished the board was up so we could discuss this in a better fashion.

Basically in the 1930 and 1940's their are to my knowledge only 3 Nations with a decent number of Excess tankers. The British, Dutch and the United States. Italian and German tankers are busy picking up oil and delivering it to Germany and Italy.

As for South America I think that if the US institutes and Oil Embargo in say 1941 or 1942 the pressure the US can put on the Neutral South American countries is just huge.

Durring the 1st Russian/German War only Polesti is available to the German along with Iraqi Oil. So for atleast one Year 1942 the Japanese donot have oil from the United States and very limited Oil from Iraq delivered on whatever neutral tankers the Japanese and Germans can manage to find. This period requires Dutch East Indies Oil or the Japanese economy will use up its total reserves durring this one year.

From the End of the 1st German/Russian war in 1942 till atleast late 1943 Grozny and Baku are busy being rebuilt and what little production they have is being utilized bye the Germans in there huge expansion of their mobile forces and Airforce.

By Mid to Late 1943 production at Baku and Grozny should be getting back to normal and shipments of Oil to Japan can go from the Black sea to the Mediteranian, thru the Suez Canal and off to Japan.

But in late 1944 with the Persian crisis in full swing the British might close the Suez Canal to all Italian, British, and Turkish ships and possibly Japanese flagged vessels as well.

Anyway I see huge problems getting comming up with ways to get Japan more oil then they were getting historically from the United States in the Period from 1941 till 1945 the Excess Oil is going to be very hard to find as Grozny and Baku will have been badly damaged in the fighting over them. In addition in the Germans start trans-shipping oil to Japan in this period when the US has an Oil Embargo against Japan they risk the good will of the United States and that includes all the materials they need to rebuild after the 1st Euro-Asian war.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

I have a feeling CT that the SAFB really didnt care about the goodwill of the United States - they were fascist states and the US didnt want a war with Germany so they would have shipped oil to Japan - on Japanese and neutral tankers - and the combined oil production of Argentina, Bolivia and Peru is more than enough oil to keep Japan afloat when combined with Sakhalin’s production.

That’s the one thing you keep forgetting is that the SAFB has large amounts of oil to sell, needs iron ore and coal (which Japan had), and military equipment (which Japan had – face it even 1941 Japanese designs are better than 1920’s and 30’s stuff the SAFB had and the SAFB couldn’t build destroyers and cruisers which Japan did have as items to be sold to the SAFB in exchange for oil).

As for tankers - who knows how many tankers the US may have built for Germany and Italy during the period they were supporting the Axis - if the US built merchant hulls for Britain during Lend Lease in OTL then they may have built them for Germany and Italy as well.

And Germany had a lot more than just Ploesti – they had their own synthetic production which was considerable by 1942-43 and they had the oilfields of Hungary, Austria and Poland as well.

And if you cutoff shipping oil thru Suez that doesn’t affect oil shipments from Iraq – they would just ship it from ports in the Persian Gulf.

Japan also had the full oil production of Sakhalin which means they started with a lot more oil than they had in OTL prior to the US oil shipment cutoff.

That combined with the SAFB, Axis and Iraq oil shipments gave them more than enough oil to build their fleet, build tankers (including some that were most likely auxiliary carriers that were built to be able to be converted to be used as such when war started) and stay very comfortable up until the start of WWII. After that all they had was SAFB oil and Sakhalin – which was enough to keep them alive but probably not enough to let them grow or keep up the tempo of fleet and army operations they needed.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

One thing that could solve both issues - i.e. where did Japan get all the tankers and where did they get all the carriers could be solved with a postulated new class of ships - i.e. a purpose built tanker that was made to be quickly converted to carriers in time of war or prior to the war

figure around 17,000 to 25,000 tons, able to carry 45 to 60 aircraft as a carrier, with some AA guns as a tanker and the ability to add more in its carrier configuration

say a class of ten ships all built between 1940-1945,with conversions starting in late 45 so they were ready by the start of the war to very early in 1947

such a ship gives us a whole bunch of tankers and then a whole bunch of carriers - and kills two birds with one stone

CJ said...

Still working on the carrier stuff - got sidetracked with cruiser replacement stuff.

Some random thoughts in the meantime:

Lead Lease Tankers to Germany
* I kinda doubt it. The big reason the British got tankers and cargo ships via Lend Lease was because of the large numbers of U-boats running around in the Atlantic sinking such ships. While there is a case to be made for a couple of Soviet surface raiders running around early in the Eurasian War, there isn't much of one significant numbers of Soviet submarines doing the same.

Japanese CV Losses
* Bear in mind that the surge in CV construction in OTL came after the Japanese lost five CVs in one month - all within the first six months of war. Here they didn't lose their first CV until eight months into the war (Santa Cruz) and they didn't lose their next one until month ten (Java Sea). Then next two losses were in month eleven when they lost two with another damaged (Midway). They lost their next two in September 1947 (The Slot).
* I've been playing around with some ideas on Java Sea. If the IJN really had that many CVs available, the AfD Eastern Fleet never would have made it out of the Java Sea alive.
* They may have gotten a few of the shadow carriers in ATL 1945, but worked up air groups are a different story. Parts of 'Shattered Sword' makes for some interesting reading in this regard.

IJN Tankers/Oilers
* Bear in mind that for the Hawaii/Midway operation, the IJN brought out a larger Kido Butai than in OTL. A significant chunk of it also hung around for a substantial amount of time to support the Midway invasion.
* There is a good chance that a good chunk of the Combined Fleet came out with the invasion force in case part of PACFLT tried to interfere with the Midway invasion and hung around for a while.
* The Kido Butai had to have stayed pretty active in the area between the Marshall Islands and Midway in order for the US not to take Midway back a long time before they did.

All of that requires a large number of oilers

Anonymous said...

olefin here

read your post CJ - again one thing that has to be taken into account is Bobby's story where after multiple carriers are dispatched to other fronts in the Pacific he specifically says only five carriers are left in one particular area of the Pacific - now that alone suggests a much larger Japanese fleet than in OTL - where during most of the war they would have been hard pressed to have five carriers active in their whole fleet let alone in just one area after several had been dispatched elsewhere

if you look at the sheer numbers you can see that they had to have a lot more than they did in OTL - maybe not all with top of the line pilots but still active duty carriers

ctwaterman said...

I agree on totaly on the need for tankers and see no reason for the US to build lend lease tankers for the Italians and the Germans. US flagged tankers would have and could have easily delivered the Oil and Gasoline directly to the docks in Hamburg or other costal German cities.

As for SAFB oil... who is refining it for the Japanese. And more importantly with the SAFB expanding their economy leaps and bounds why are they not using this oil themsleves. Basically the entire SAFB has less oil then Venesuela and the Japanese economy especially a drastically enlarged ship building and pilot training program is going to need significanly more oil then historical.

Basically in 1941 with the start of the US Oil Embargo the Japanese economy started to starve and they had to ration oil for Economic and Military needs. Here the Japanese economy contiues to go full out..... we need to come up with a real good reason for this. Since military spending in Japan was already approaching 50% or more of Japans yearly budget they would be very hard pressed to pay CASH for Oil and Premium prices to buy or lease Neutral tankers.

Basically the Japanese were buying fully refined finished products basically bunker oil, Gasoline, Diesel, Kerosine and what they termed Aviation spirits directly from the US and delivered on US Flagged Tankers. Japan also despite having Manchurian Iron ore were purchasing every bit of US scrap iron they could afford.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Again you keep forgetting Sakhalin's oil - which the Japanese had seized in its entirety during the Eurasian War - that is a lot of oil, and it is extremely easy to ship it to Japan - that alone could explain how Japan kept going until 1946, when combined with the oil from the SAFB and other sources - and there are refineries in the SAFB that could have refined the product and sold it to Japan -

and again how could Japan have paid the SAFB - with iron ore, coal and above all military equipment that the SAFB needed - which could even have been stuff they captured from the Soviets.

ctwaterman said...

Actually I am not forgetting Sakhalins Oil. What I dont want to do is overstate the difficulty in drilling for it and how little of the Oil field was developed when they took it from the Russians.

Basically unless Sakhalin comes completely intact with drilling rigs and a refinery it is of limited value to Japan in 1941-43 at a minimum. Now with it being their only remaining supply of Oil its critical.

I think the easiest for Germany and the most expensive for Japan way to fix Japans problem is Synthetic Oil. If IG Farbin I believe actually shares all the technical data it was told to with the Japanese and then the Japanese invest a huge amount of resources they can build a couple of full sized Synthetic Fuel plants. The problems is the Japanese will have to be completely pragmatic. They will have to cancel the Army and Navy competitive R&D Projects into Synthetic Fuels, they will have to ask IG Farbin the right questions and get the right answers and then they will have to invest heavily in Heavy Machinery they probably cant build themselves. This will actually take resource away from the army and the navy in the short term like 1941-42 significantly lower budgets. This is on the basis of the size of Japan economy a really seriously huge investment.

Investing in building a refinery would be nearly as large as an investment as Japan only had 1 refinery complex. Basically spend money to build a large Chemical Industry dedicated to turning coal dust into Synthetic Fuels. Or dedicate lots of resource into Expanding drilling and production on Sakhalin and the ability to refine the oil once it reaches Japan.

On the other hand if Japan had sufficent Oil to run their economy and their Military and sufficent Iron Ore & Coal to be able to trade it for more Oil as necessary then exactly why did Japan attack the United States as it would appear the US Oil Embargo would have been failing. And the Japanese Navy while stronger is not significantly stronger in comparison to the USN. Basically the US is corespondingly stronger then historical and has completed a huge number of new carriers and battle ships and cruisers. The USAAC is really large so Why did the Japanese who reluctantly went to war with the US in the first place go to war with the US...???????

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Sakhalin was bigger than you are stating CT - I have posted before how much it was producing and it could easily have provided at least enough oil to keep Japanese military operations in China and Russia going pre-war as well as training ops for the navy. However its not big enough to keep Japan growing, nor it is big enough pre-war for what they needed for industry and for its military.

Japan was in a better position as to oil and minerals in ShatteredWorld than it was in OTL. However in the end they still needed more – Sakhalin and Russia and China and Manchuria gave them what they needed to build their fleet and military – but it had to push them to the breaking point to do it. So in the end why attack – well for one because the AfD was weak in Asia after the first year of WWII. For another if Japan was going to continue to grow economically and militarily they had to have new resources. Plus there is one other big factor – Japan was basically at close to its maximum strength that they could be with their available resources – and the US was very soon going to get an infusion of new BB, CV and other new ships.

So Japan basically had two choices – hit the US and AfD in that moment – before the AfD could shift resources to Asia and before the US got the new Essex carriers, BB’s, etc – or basically see their military buildup go to naught. I also think they thought that Hitler would come to their aid – which he didn’t. They miscalculated and thought that Hitler would pay them back for Japan stabbing the USSR in the back and basically drawing a lot of strength away during the Eurasian War. And instead Hitler did the smart thing, stayed out – and Japan took the full fury of the US.

Oh speaking of oil and Germany – keep in mind that the Chechnyan revolt took the Soviets by surprise so the Grozny field may have fallen intact into Axis hands – that oil field was second only to Baku and much bigger than Ploesti.

If the Germans and Chechnyans took it intact – and they may very well have done that – then the whole calculation of what oil is available for shipping to Japan from 1942-1945 has to be changed.

CJ said...

When the Kido Butai hit Pearl Harbor they did so with eight carriers. So sending three of them to work with the CVLs around the Philippines and in the South China Sea does not imply a huge number of carriers. Keep in mind that the only real opposition outside of the Central Pacific was an AfD fleet bottled up in Singapore. I'll say it again - if the IJN really had the numbers available that you are suggesting then the AfD Eastern Fleet never would have made it into the Java Sea, let alone out of it.

You are reading something into the story that just isn't there.

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

Lets look at numbers and losses

The Japanese have 8 fleet carriers to hit Pearl with at the beginning of the war plus others that were obviously hitting Malaya, the Philliphines, etc..

Between then and August 15, 1947 they lose on carrier on Feb 12, one carrier on April 8. As of May 18 it is said they only have 5 carriers remaining in the Central Pacific - and then they lose two of them on May 18 and have another heavily damaged.

They lose 2 more in the big battle later that year in the Solomons.

Now if we add that up that is a total loss of 6 carriers and one heavily damaged by late in 1947.

However on Jan 16, 1948 they suddenly have six carriers still in the Central Pacific (i.e. the three carriers at Wake represent half the carriers left in the Central Pacific)

So lets add - 6 carriers lost, one in the body shop and six carriers in the Central Pacific alone - meaning over 13 carriers right there, 13 carriers big enough to fight in fleet battles - and there are others still around since Bobby didnt say the last six carriers in the Japanese fleet, he said six carriers in the Central Pacific.

Thus they had to have at least 13 Fleet carriers plus other fleet carriers in other areas of the Pacific plus CVL's that are too slow for fleet ops plus the CVE's to have the numbers Bobby has shown to have existed in his story.

So dont tell me I am reading something into the story that isnt there - either Bobby needs to seriously rewrite the Pacific or the Japanese had a lot more carriers than either you or CT are willing to admit to.

ctwaterman said...

*Chuckles*

Ok Oelfin Carriers in the Body and fender shop do count towards the total of Fleet Carriers in exhistance.

I havent gone back and reread all the early Japanese raids in the South Pacific around Singapore, PI, and Dutch East Indies but historically a huge amount of this action was carried out by Japanese Land Based Aircraft not Carrier Based Aircraft.

Also the Japanese counted things a Carriers that the United States did not even consider Carriers but as tenders. The Japanese Float plane tenders were classified as Carriers not Aircraft Ferries or tenders like the US AVG that latter became CVE's of which the US Built over 100.

Basically you are reading the Japanese Carriers lost as all being Fleet Carriers and if you look at the Battles of Coral Sea you will see in OTL as an example the US sank 1 Light Carrier and Damaged one Fleet Carrier.

You have to remember that Bobby Counts Cruisers at least the Large Heavy Cruisers as Capital Ships.????

Anyway I think our numbers are all off all over the place. Basically we have a range of the numbers of Japanese Carriers CJ and I are at the low end realizing what it take to build and support a full CV and you Oelfin are at the high end just counting hulls.

Besides you keep forgetting the Imperial Japanese Army's Carriers as well.... :)

Anonymous said...

Olefin here

These are clearly fleet carriers we are talking about CT – you aren’t going to take CVE tubs or training carriers into battles against Essex carriers. Why not just blow them up in the harbor and save the Americans the trouble? These are clearly fleet carriers we are talking about - which means either CV’s or CVL’s that can keep up with the fleet – i.e. meaning not Hiyo or Ryuho. The Japanese did use light carriers in fleet battles in OTL – but they were either desperate (Leyte, Philippines Sea) or they were covering invasion forces (Coral Sea) or they were decoys. They definitely weren’t part of the fleet fights in the early years where they were integral parts of the fleet carrier groups – which is what we are talking about in the actions from Pearl up to Wake Island.

And the Japanese never called seaplane tenders carriers – they called them seaplane tenders or auxiliary carriers – and they weren’t stupid enough to take them into fleet battles.

So counting hulls is right here – they very obviously had at least 13+ fleet carriers (since as Bobby said they were only six carriers in the Central Pacific, not six carriers in the whole Japanese fleet) that saw action between Pearl and Wake Island. That means they were either full size CV or they were CVL that could actually keep up in a fleet battle – not tubby CVE’s or old training carriers operating 8 planes.

So give it a break – either Bobby has to change his timeline numbers a bunch – or the Japanese obviously built a lot more fleet carriers in ShatteredWorld than they ever did in OTL.

ctwaterman said...

*ROTFL*

I think Oelfin that I am not the one in need of a Break.

The Japanese moved there carriers about as needed. First to attack Hawaii then to the South Pacific and then back to the Central Pacific. It is only your oppinion that the Japanese had 6 Carriers in the Central Pacific and a bunch somewhere else. If they had any more they might have used them but maybe those other Carriers were not full Fleet Carriers and maybe any other Fleet Carriers were simply Damaged or still under contstruction.

Anyway the numbers you have stated as CJ put it are very high and very likely to have snapped the Japanese ability to Logistically train flight crews to operate from them.

As it is All Fleet Carriers are not the same.... take the Essex Block II & Block III Carriers and say the Shinano Converted Battle Ship or many of the other Japanese sort of Carrier Conversions.

The Japanese might very well have produced 13 Fleet Carriers but Im pretty sure they didnt have them all in service at the same time. I am also pretty sure some of those Fleet Carriers had to be fast CVL just like the US Cruiser Conversions.

CJ said...

Hey Charles, are you still at the same email address? I tried to send you some stuff but I never heard back.

ctwaterman said...

CJ - Sorry - Got the stuff and replied just I have been away from Email since Friday spending all my hard earned cash on a new Vehicle.

I will miss not having car payments I was just getting used to being independently wealthy.

Or as Daffy Said " Im rich im wealth Im a greedy little miser...."

Anonymous said...

olefin here

sorry CT - but its not my words its Bobby's - i.e. the three carriers at Wake Island represented half the remaining strength of the Japanese carriers in the Central Pacific - note it doesnt say the Pacific or their entire fleet - its says Central Pacific - so that means at least 13 fleet carriers plus that were fast enough to be fleet carriers - i.e. not the Ryuho, Hosho, or the army CVE tubs - to have the numbers mentioned in his story up to Wake Island.

And they still had other carriers - meaning somehow they got enough pilots to man all those carriers.

Now conceivably some could be recent conversions or new construction - but considering how long it took Japan in OTL to do conversions and new carriers I dont see them adding many in the first year and a half of the war

so could we say that they added 3-4conversions and new construction in that time - possibly - but that would be at most.

CJ said...

Olefin, we've got 15 specified losses of Japanese aircraft carriers over the course of the entire war. Presumably they were all big enough to warrant a mention. Given a realistic calculation of how many fleet carriers they would have available at various points during the war, the CVLs had to be in the thick of the fighting. And yes, that includes ones that may not meet your criterion for ones that have any business in a fleet engagement.

Having a deck does not mean they have enough trained pilots to fill them. At Cape Egano, Ozawa only had 116 aircraft for four carriers that had a capability to carry 174. Historically at the time of Midway, the CVL air groups were very understrength. It's also worth mentioning that what really chewed up the IJN's carrier aviators in OTL was committing them to the Solomons from land bases. By the time decks were available again, the air groups were a shadow of their former selves.

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