A Devastating Alternate Second World War

February 02, 2011

New Interlude : Operation Tumble Down....

The new segment is coming very soon, but the in the meantime here is a new interlude that goes with the coming segment....


CJ said...

Very exciting update Bobby.

Were the "Viper" fighters that saw action production-models, or were they pre-production/test models thrown into the fight?

Olefin said...

A very exciting update indeed - but that attack has gutted the American and British bomber and fighter commands. If the Germans only lost a 100 jet fighters that means the Allies lost 400-500 bombers and fighters over Germany if not more - and those crews are gone for good. And the B-34's have lost almost a third of their number in one night - and they know their invulnerablity is gone.

They wont be in any mood or ability to repeat this raid or anything like it for a long time. And they only faced a few supersonic fighters - if there had been more most likely the Americans would have lost 50+ B-34's in one night - and no force can take those losses and remain combat effective.

This makes the losses the USAAF took in the ball bearing raids look like child play

and the German fighter pilots, of which probably 60 percent or more survived, are right now able to go back up again - and the bases hit were empty of aircraft - they were all in the air - so they will just relocate elsewhere

by the way Bobby - where were the rocket interceptors - they werent mentioned at all - and there is no way they werent at Berlin

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

-- the attack is definitely mixed news for both sides. Obviously a massive body blow to the Germans...but on the other hand the losses the Alliance bombers took(including the atomic bombers) has to put into question the viability of continued deep penetration raids.

-- The vipers deployed were production models...but very very early ones just off the lines with a barely dry coat of paint. More of them will be getting deployed over time

-- The Germans lost around 125 fighters, the Alliance lost around 150 fighters. The Alliance also lost somewhere over 200 heavy and medium bombers....a very VERY bad loss rate. The large number of B-34 losses was because the Germans obviously focused on them as much as possible

-- the German rocket-interceptors didn't come into play because the Germans filled the skies with regular jet fighters and anti-aircraft missiles, a huge huge defensive surge, hundreds and hundreds of fighters of all types. Probably a hundred defending Berlin alone, several squadrons worth. (remember the Germans don't need to have a lot of fighters over the Eastern front any more given the weakness of the Red Airforce at this point)

Olefin said...

Bobby the losses have to be higher than that for the Allies -

2400 All combined, over four hundred jet fighters and bombers have now been downed over Europe

01:00 London Time

Another hundred fighters and bombers from both sides have by now been downed

02:30 London Time

Penetrating through the teeth of dense air defenses in the German interior, B-31 and B-34 bombers take devastating losses, adding up to nearly a quarter of the second wave’s heavy bombers being downed

You have the Germans losing 125 fighters - add up the losses and you have 500 planes down before the second wave goes in an loses a quarter of the heavy bombers and probably just as many fighters- which considering there were hundreds of them could mean that the second wave lost as many as 150 bombers or more and another 150 fighters

so that means German losses of 125 planes in the air and Allies losses of at least 500 fighters and heavy and medium bombers (and probably more if the second wave was as big as the first one) since they lost 375 alone in just the first wave - which is more than what you just posted

thus we have to assume that the Allies must have lost closer to 200 fighters and 400+ heavy bombers - meaning that Bomber Command and the USAAF just became combat ineffective with losses of around 35 percent of the attacking force, let alone probably anothr 200 bombers that got back with dead crew and damage

You may want to run your figures again - I think you are only showing the first wave losses and not including the ones over Berlin - I dont see many of those prop planes that got to Berlin making it back - prop planes versus jets makes a lot of German jet fighter pilots into aces and a lot of AfD prop plane pilots wives into widows

and those planes that didnt get shot down on the way in would have been low on fuel and ammo on the way back out - and the Germans would have been waiting for them on the way back too

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

You are right, forgot to include the numbers from the second wave. But, the second wave was somewhat smaller so the numbers are higher than my last comment but not quite as bad as the numbers you estimated.

Either way, definitely catastrophic losses for the SBC and Alliance bomber forces.
The thing is, it might actually be worth the losses given the damage they just did to Germany. But, of course, they can't go on sustaining such losses. They'll have to go back to attacks around the periphery for quite awhile before considering deep penetration strikes again

lordroel said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
lordroel said...

Is the Viper fighter an allied code name ore the German name .

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

'Viper' is the closest English translation, I try to avoid messing with native language stuff and just do everything as "closest English translation"

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

To expand on that : I went through a list of actual German fighter names, translated into English, from real life...and Viper sounded the coolest ;)

lordroel said...

That good explanation Bobby because the name viper in German is the same as in English.

Olefin said...

Asked Bobby a couple of questions about the attack and its composition. Will post the "So Sayeth Bobby" version in the board later

Quick and simple answer here

1) What was the size of the two waves

Answer - Well, probably something like 600+ heavy bombers in the first wave, 400+ in the second wave. And remember these are BIG heavy bombers, B-31 is akin to a late-model B-29 from OTL, while the B-34 is like a very refined B-36 from OTL. These things can deliver an atomic bomb or A LOT of conventional/chemical bombs. Doesn't take huge numbers to get a very large raid in terms of the impact.

Using that answer gives a loss of around 100+ heavy bombers for the second wave losses (i.e. 1/4 of raid lost)

2) Are the British still using Lancasters or B-17's?

Answer:The British are still using some Lancasters, for shorter-ranged missions against France and the lowlands. The U.S. is transitioned over to B-31's entirely, with medium bombers for short ranged and low altitude work.

loki925 said...

I have read your story several times but the glearing number errors in this part should be corrected. Your orignal statement was 'Jet fighters kill ratio was 1.1'

Now it lookes like 1.4 favioring the Germans and that's not counting bomers.

I like your stuff but try to keep things in order. Also supersonic fighters is a streach given how long it took for it to happen in OTL.
A question with 3 million dead how long will Germany have the man power to continue the war.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

Actually the 1:1 kill ratio was clearly stated to be not including Alliance losses to AAA and anti-aircraft missiles and it was clearly stated to only be referring to fighters.

As for the jet aircraft, this ATL diverged from ours in the early 1930's so there are major differences on the timeline by now.
Aviation technology is 5+ years ahead of our timeline due to the global war starting earlier and lasting longer, among other factors.

As for German losses, note that I wrote 3 million casualties, not 3 million dead. The actual number of deaths would be more like 750k or so, with the rest being wounded to varying degrees. That said, yes Germany is taking major manpower hits. No doubt about that.

Olefin said...

Bobby what were the civilian casualties like in France and the Lowlands from the atomic bombs there? Were any of their major cities near the attacked air bases or did the Allies try to keep the collateral damage to the AfD civilians to a minimum?

Olefin said...

Actually the 1:1 kill ratio was clearly stated to be not including Alliance losses to AAA and anti-aircraft missiles and it was clearly stated to only be referring to fighters.

Bobby I assume this applied only to the jet fighter losses - I am assuming that the long range prop plane fighters the Alies fielded took higher casualties trying to take on jet fighters over Berlin.

bob said...

Regard prop plane losses - I would think any German fighter wasting bullets/missles on an Allied fighter with a possible atomic bomber availble would be court martialed. Some yes, but not too many. Although damaged ones would have trouble making it back to England.

Toad said...

Hi Bobby,

Interesting. Can the Germans penetrate allied air defences over UK at all? If so, can they disrupt the enemy airfields with persistant nerve agents?

Occurs to me if they can't shut down the atomic raids or respond in kind, they are finished within weeks.

Olefin said...

The more I read this update and the more I think about it the more I am now agreeeing with the other comments that either this ends the story with widespread defections, Hitler being overthrown and the story ending - or the Germans have to have a nuke of their own to hit back with right now.

The bomber losses were too low and the SBC is still in business. This isnt a few B-34's straggle back, the Berlin raid is a total failure as Hitler crows that his new secret weapon worked, etc..

The supersonic jets failed - they didnt save any cities from attack.

There is no way Italy or Turkey or Spain looks at this and stays in the war unless the next night starts with "an all out bomber attack sinks the US fleet off of Spain or destroys the remaining B-34's on the ground in the Canaries and England or the British PM throws his hands up in a last act as the nuclear firestorm washes over Number 10."

The Germans just lost 11 cities to nukes in a few weeks - and Hitler is no Japanese God Emperor.

Unless there is some huge payback (and I mean the whole US force in Portugal dead from a bio attack, seven carriers on the bottom of the Atlantic off of Portugal, the British African army dying of disease, several British cities full to the brim with dead), a big rewrite where the SBC and Brits lose 2/3rds of the attacking force and a couple of cities are spared the attack (with one being Berlin or the B-34 drops on the residential section because it is on fire and going down and it cant make the city center), or the Germans are revealed to have nukes right now and use them and not in the Spring of 50 then the war is going to be over.

This is a jump the shark moment otherwise as to believing that the Germans take this kind of hit and somehow dont overthrow Hitler and ask for an armistice.

And no this isnt me demanding a rewrite or whatever - this is reading very well written comments from a lot of the people here and seeing that they are right.

I remember seeing Fonzie jump the shark and how after that Happy Days stopped being a show I wanted to see. I hope that isnt what is happening here. Bobby has stretched sometimes but in the end the story is logical and believeable.

But a country enduring a nuclear attack where they take sixteen big hits in one night without nukes of their own and staying in a war when their own nukes are months away and even then just one or two when the US has dozens upon dozens to use?

Laura said...
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Sebastian said...

I Feel like all the numbers are really low, in OTL when Germany was in worse straits than ATL they produced: 25 000 Fighter aircraft and 2300 Bombers. The US produced around 100 000 aircraft in 1944. Assuming an even more geared economy, losses of a few hundred medium and heavy bombers and a few hundred fighters isn't even a drop in the Ocean its absolutely nothing. The US could lose that many per day and still break even over the year.

Don't get me wrong I absolutely LOVE the story but the totals just seem so low for a giant raid like this. Numbers available on Wikipedia: (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_aircraft_production) or the fantastic book The Economics of World War II.

I am kind of forced to agree with Olefin here, if thats all the allies lost they could keep doing that everyday and force a surrender in a week at most.

mts.noos said...

Hi Bobby! Can you give an estimate of when "very soon" becomes a treat yet?

Vancouver_2010 said...

hopefully its closer to being done now, waiting is not fun:(

Olefin said...

Still waiting for the next update

but with the events of Tumble Down its pretty easy to predict

German Allies all take one look at what just happened and quit the war one after the other starting with Spain, Italy and Turkey

Hitler gets overthrown and shot

Germany followed by Japan surrenders

unless there is some kind of total miracle straight out a fairy tale that somehow keeps Germany and her Allies in the war

and this is an ATL not a fantasy story

either that or Tumble Down is a Dallas moment and its only Curtis LeMay's dream and not what really happened

Scott said...

I eagerly anticipate the full update. Regardless of the naysaying, this is a work of fiction that I truly enjoy.
Keep at it Bobby, I think you're doing a great job.

shellz said...

-I eagerly anticipate the full update. Regardless of the naysaying

Agreed. Ignore the constant whinging of a single person, not that you havnt over the years anyway.

We're all excited for the next update. Keep up the good work.!

Olefin said...

Sorry Shellz but in this case there are a lot of people opposed to his update - who if you were an actual member of the board you would know about - so in this case its ignoring Roel, FW190 pilot, Derek and a lot more

And insults as your only post shows just how much you know of the timeline

shellz said...

Please dont dilute this wonderful timeline with your trolling, you only embarrassing yourself. You have a board, save it for there. I hope you can see that in the future.

Thank you.

Vancouver_2010 said...

I dont see why you think Olefin is trolling, i thought he did point out some excellent reasons to backup his claim that this storyline is not very realistic.

Olefin said...

Shellz - I am not trolling - I happen to be the most prolific poster here because I love the story so much.

And I dont have my own board at all

Thank you Vancouver for your comments - nice to see that I am not the lone wolf that I am being accused of

Olefin said...

this used to be a real board with a real author who took criticism and answered it factually and admitted when a change made sense if it was proven to him

whether it was flying under the radar at Pearl, launching fighters off the deck from a carrier in the Panama Canal or changing Iwo to have the Japanese surge their aircraft out when the B-34's came to nuke it

when did it becomea a board where unless the only posts are good job Bobby threatens to end the whole thing by saying its burning him out?

and when did a story he described as a work of love and something he wanted to turn into a real book become just a hobby?

Olefin said...

Well it looks like its time for me to go - not sure if Bobby will leave this up or not

goodbye to all my friends and foes on the board - it was fun and frustrating and interesting and boring and all kinds of other things

and frankly booting me instead of answering my posts in a detailed way as Bobby did for years shows that ShatteredWorld is definitely not worth my time anymore

and how vindictive the boot was that my profile was completely removed (versus Trendel where his profile and contact info was left up for people to still be able to oontact him) just shows this is not a board where any real discussion can occur anymore unless its sycophantic praise of the story

SEE YA!!!!!

Olefin said...

P.S. Per my request Roel has deleted my stories on SW - he left up your comments but the stories themselves are gone - also what I put up on the wiki has been deleted (which means some 90 percent of it)

I wont see my stories or that info used for possible updates after getting booted without warning by Bobby

for those of you who enjoyed them I am sorry there wont be any new ones, at least not here.

Vancouver_2010 said...

I don't see why you cannot open a new blog for your story, your story seems to be interesting as well.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

That'd be fine with me...but the stories would have to be clearly no longer part of the shattered World Timeline.
I don't ever intend to make money from this BUT my work does have the implied copyright protection that comes with any publicly published creative work.

Olefin said...

Dont worry my stories are gone and deleted so no threats, real or implied are needed. Oh and you may as well remove the wiki - because Roel and I have pulled our contributions there and that leaves about 3 total posts there.

derek.pullem said...

Please Olefin - you're making yourself look childish.

You want to pull all your wiki postings and fan fic that's your perogative. But please don't pretend that Bobby asseting his intellectual property of the shattered world millieu is a "threat". Having been involved with the Paradox boards to some extent I'm also suprised the stories you posted to Bobby's board are your "property" - the concensus at Paradox was that if you posted it to the board you were giving the owners the right to use the material according to standard T&C. So I'd say that Bobby / Lord Roel have been more than accomodating in your exit.

So if you wish to retire (dis)gracefully that is your choice. For me I would have moved on and left any material as is.

Toad said...

Actually, your work has actual, not implied, copyright protection. You also have what they call moral rights. That gives you the right to see your work presented in its intended context.

derek.pullem said...

Actually BOBBY has moral copyright and technically all fan fiction is infringing it.


Toad said...

Derek, I was referring to Bobby, but thanks for clarifying.

derek.pullem said...

Apologies Toad - totally misunderstood your response

gszczepa said...

I feel like it is over. After so many years I will truly miss it.

Bobby Hardenbrook said...

It isn't over. In fact, this isn't even the longest gap in new material.

I have a baby coming and work is insane, and also the whole blowup on the discussion board kinda sapped some of my creative energy.(and that energy was already low anyway)

But, as I have always said, Shattered World will never end. Its a life long hobby thing for me. I would keep writing it even if there were not a single person reading it any more.

Anonymous said...

Waiting with baited breath for the next part, sooo looking foward to it. Keep up the awesome work Bobby.