Shattered World - Segment 53.3
"Leningrad und Smolensk, oder Tod"
Nuclear fire blossomed like the all consuming brilliance of some ancient warrior god. In the middle, hell boiled and reached upwards for the heavens. All around, concentric circles of overpressure extend out to snuff out life and property like a million angry fists, smashing all before them. 40 kilotons of death and mayhem, delivered from the great predator birds of war - flying far overhead, now withdrawing eastward with fighters in vain pursuit; like gnats pricking the giants of old or hawks throwing themselves at the Earth in desperate rage.
Shifting the viewpoint downward and out to sea, to the inferno that had been the Island of Okinawa. The battle lines are stark, brutal scars cutting their jagged path across a tortured terrain becoming more that of nightmare by the hour. Craters dot the land, making it appear like the surface of some hostile alien world. Off the coast, great ships mass in their hundreds. Flashes erupt among them, and dozens of small, fast, human projectiles throw themselves into the depths of exploding shrapnel and a million aimed shells and rounds. Explosions erupt among the great vessels, and a few of them heave in their death throws, plunging into the abyssal depths to end their days of service - taking with them hundreds of struggling men to new watery graves.
Back to land, where columns of metal machines crawl across the earth, surrounded by men in masks and mottled uniforms, wielding clever personal weapons of death. They push ahead, leap frogging at times, at others flowing slowly like thick molasses; pushing into areas of enemy weakness. Foul clouds fill the air, noxious vapors that bring only death carry on the winds;killing and maiming all those unfortunate enough to lack protective measures. Explosions ripple, moving with the front lines - leaving broken men and death in their wake. Mechanical contraptions that flit about on whirling blades buzz this way and that. Molten fire bursts suddenly here and there, raining from the air to melt flesh and burn all before it;like the breath of some great ancient Dragon.
And now, rain; as if the Earth itself wept at the deeds of men.
August 4th 1949
On Kyushu, Kagoshima is struck by a 40 kiloton atomic bomb in another B-34 raid following massive conventional bombardment of anti-aircraft defenses in the area. In a scene that is grim, but now all too common in Japan, much of the city is destroyed; hundreds of thousands are dead or wounded.
The Battle of Okinawa rages on. U.S. Marines, with the help of massive air support and three more atomic blasts over the past three days, have slogged across muddy terrain and have largely secured the center of the island, landing with 5 divisions around Hogushi and rapidly pushing north, east, and south. Although U.S. forces have seized most of the center of the island, many pockets of Japanese resistance remain determined to fight to the death. After an initial surge, U.S. forces have now been stalled by strong Japanese defensive lines in the north and south where independent Japanese commands still hold strong positions and intend to hold out as long as possible. The civilian population, largely concentrated in the south of the island, is suffering greatly and have largely fled inside massive bomb shelters and tunnels dispersed around the towns.
Off the coast of Okinawa the fierce battle at sea continues, with Japanese submarines attempting with little success to disrupt the U.S. fleet's lines of communication and K-24 kamikaze rocket-bombs and conventional aircraft out of Kyushu making intermittent massed attacks. Since the initial landings on August 1st another dozen U.S. vessels, ranging from supply ships to destroyers and cruisers, have been sunk or heavily damaged, with others more lightly damaged.
August 5th 1949
On the Eastern Front, German infantry backed by heavy tanks and massive artillery and air support continue to press into Minsk, paying dearly for every collapsed house and rubble strewn street corner they seize. Soviet Forces there, resigned to their fate, are determined to fight on as long as human willpower can endure; making Minsk an ongoing nasty wound in the German side. To the east, German forces have slogged another 5 kilometers closer to Leningrad, putting the southwestern outskirts of that city under direct artillery and rocket bombardment. To the South, Smolensk is a death zone for the German Army. German forces have pushed several kilometers on the northern and southern portion of soviet defenses there but have not managed a breakout that would allow an encirclement. Determined to achieve their objectives before the Autumn rains, the German high command commits the last of its heavy reserves. It is "Leningrad und Smolensk, oder Tod" for the German Army.
August 7th 1949
In northeastern China Nationalist forces put Beijing under siege, push back Chinese communist forces across a broad front. Despite these Nationalist gains, communist guerrillas open a widespread guerrilla campaign behind the lines and across many parts of China in general. It is the beginning of the "Time of the Red Terror" in China, a terrible chapter in Chinese history. Communist guerrilla forces, with Soviet backing, have planned in detail for a vicious campaign of total warfare and terrorism that borders on genocidal in its scope and cruelty. Food production is to be attacked with Soviet developed anti-agriculture bio weapons, water supplies are to be poisoned, chemical and bio terrorist attacks launched, amongst all manner of other vicious and cruel terrorist and guerrilla operations.
August 8th 1949
After a series of large, intensely contested, conventional heavy bomber raids and fighter sweeps over the past week around Southern Spain, U.S. B-34 bombers escorted by swarms of carrier jet fighters conduct an atomic attack on Cadiz and two nearby air fields.
At Cadiz, two atomic bombs are detonated 500 feet over the city - targeting the Axis Naval Command Base and the port facilities. Cadiz is mostly wiped off the map, and over half of its population is killed and many of the rest injured. Axis naval infrastructure, both administrative and the naval facilities themselves, are completely wiped out along with much of the Axis's Unified Naval Command leadership. Some do survive in bunkers, but for all intents and purposes the heart of the Axis Naval Command has been torn out and Cadiz rendered useless as a center of naval power or a center of anything else for that matter.
In the same attack, two airfields in the region around Cadiz are destroyed by atomic bombs, though many of their aircraft were airborne at the time and simply move to other air fields. Overall, Axis naval power on the Atlantic coast of southern Spain has been dealt a fatal blow and air power has been dealt a harsh but not quite crippling blow.The only good news for the Axis is that there were no significant warships in the port at the time since the Axis had already withdrawn their naval assets into the western Mediterranean
August 9th 1949
In a joint Anglo-American broadcast directed at Spain, the U.S. and British demand that Spain surrender, hinting darkly that Madrid isn't that far north of Cadiz and that Spain would be "well advised to seriously consider its national interests". In a recently completed bunker beneath Madrid, Franco has been engaged in intense meetings with his most trusted allies. Above, in the streets of the Spanish capitol, the mood is somber. There is anger at the "massacre of Cadiz", but more than that there is fear of what city may be next.
Fearing that Spain may be wavering, Hitler orders the Luftwaffe to "defend Spain as if she were the Fatherland". The Luftwaffe's high leadership, looking at maps showing active theatres on all sides of the Reich, have difficult choices to make. Increasing assets in Spain will mean decreasing them somewhere else. But where to draw these assets from? From Baku, with its vital oil fields? From the Eastern front where the war may hang in the balance? From the Fatherland itself where the German people lay under the shadow of nuclear destruction? From Rommel's valiant forces struggling for control of North Africa? From the Channel Front where the RAF grows more bold with its fighter sweeps and bomber streams by the week?
August 11th 1949
The extensive use of nerve and mustard gas by the Japanese on Okinawa has proven to be quite effective against U.S. forces in the oppressive summer heat. Despite this, and despite the loss of many tanks to Japanese anti-tank rockets(Nicknamed 'Yellow Bazookas' by U.S. forces), U.S. Marines have crushed the last pockets of resistance on the island's mid regions and have consolidated their positions in the face of fierce Japanese counter attacks in the north and south. U.S. naval and air bombardment of the Japanese held north and south is perhaps the most intense the world has ever seen although there have been no new atomic attacks since August 3rd. Japanese use of their kamikaze rockets has fallen off sharply although U.S. intelligence cannot determine if this is due to them all being used, them being destroyed, or the Japanese hoarding them for future use. Conventional air attacks from Kyushu have been a daily occurrence despite brutal losses suffered by the Japanese. Since August 5th conventional Japanese air attacks and sporadic kamikaze rocket attacks have only managed to sink another three destroyers, a cruiser, and two transports; with half a dozen other vessels sustaining light to moderate damage, including one U.S. carrier that is forced to steam for the Philippines after a lucky level bomber manages to deliver a bomb to her flight deck.
[* The Japanese anti-tank rocket mentioned above is based on an ATL 1945 German design that is very similar to German anti-tank rockets from OTL sirca 44'-45' *]
August 11th 1949
A huge U.S. convoy, having suffered the loss of only several merchant ships to prowling German submarines in the cold harsh waters of the north, reaches Murmansk - delivering vast amounts of supplies for the sagging Soviet war effort. These supplies include fuel, radar guided anti-aircraft equipment, jet engines for the jet airframes being churned out east of the Urals, spare parts, and other critical supplies. Some of this material is destined to head straight for the front to Leningrad and Smolensk, or east to feed the hungry Soviet industrial complex out beyond the Urals.
After pausing for nearly a week to consolidate and bring up reserves, the German pushes on Minsk, Leningrad, and Smolensk resume with massive conventional and nerve gas artillery and rocket bombardments. A surprise surge of Red Airforce fighters partially disrupts German carpet bombing efforts although Luftwaffe fighters take advantage of this by scoring dozens and dozens of kills. Southwest of Leningrad the battle almost resembles the western front circa 1918, with German infantry infiltrating forward into the massive belt of Soviet defensive works there. At Smolensk, however, there is little resemblance to the Great War as an epic clash of armor occurs south of the city. Both sides lose many dozens of tanks, but by the late afternoon German mechanized infantry are pouring through a gap exposed in the Soviet lines.
August 13th 1949
With Smolensk rapidly being enveloped by the German breakout to the south, the Red Army has no choice but to begin pulling out of the strategic city. The Soviet Union cannot afford to sacrifice another entire army to serve as a wound in the side of the Germans as happened at Minsk. Encouraged by the early signs of the soviet pull-out, the German army smashes forward to the north of Smolensk, severely pressuring Soviet forces tasked with holding that flank until Smolensk can be evacuated.
Further north Leningrad is proving a harder nut to crack. German forces are now 17 kilometers due southwest of the city but have not made much progress in their efforts to push around the city to encircle it. With most German armor committed further to the South, the front here is not fluid.
August 14th 1949
German forces now control half of Minsk and the ragtag Red Army forces there are starving and desperately short of ammunition; yet 125,000 of them fight on.
At Smolensk the orderly Soviet withdrawal is degenerating into a route as German forces surge ahead on the city's northern flank and German forces from the southern breakout begin to fan out east of the city. With German artillery and bombers pummelling the remaining soviet evacuation route the Red Army repeats a chaotic scene that they've seen too many times before over the past decade - hundreds of thousands of men fleeing for their lives through a narrow corridor of death.
August 15th 1949
In South America, a tense peace reigns. Despite growing ODAS support for rebels in Bolivia, the SAFB continues to maintain a cautious approach, not wanting to anger the nuclear-armed United States. Both the ODAS and SAFB have been engaged in an arms race for some time, and south America is now heavily armed and fortified. Argentina, the most powerful of the SAFB nations, now has a large professional army, navy, and air force equipped largely with early 40's era German weapons and equipment manufactured on license by its young but booming arms industry. Chile and Brazil, the two largest ODAS South American nations, are relatively well armed with reliable but obsolete surplus U.S. equipment but they have not quite achieved the professionalism and level of training in their armies that Argentina has managed to attain.
Formally, Britain is at war with Argentina and by extension the SAFB as a whole - but there has been little action since a series of British air raids on Argentina earlier in the war and some trade even continues between the two under the table. Britain seems content to leave Argentina alone as long it refrains from allowing German submarines to base or resupply there; this fragile truce has held for several years now. South America's economy in general has been booming for a decade as all sides in the Global War desperately need the raw materials and goods that South America can provide. Undoubtedly this economic success is another reason that outright war has not yet erupted here.
The wild cards of South America are Columbia and Venezuela, still very neutral and quite happy to listen to diplomats and business men from all sides
TO BE CONTINUED...
204 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 204 of 204Define "a lot more". They built ten full sized CV in OTL, eleven really if you count the 'Shinano' conversion.
I think the basic problem in this discussion isn't total numbers built; it's when they were actually available for combat with a worked-up air group. There would have been recently completed ships still working up early in the war and new ships coming online on the war dragged on. It’s not a pure raw numbers game. If it were, then there is no way that the ‘Vaterland’ group would have ever made it back to Germany, the AfD Eastern Fleet would have made it into the Java Sea let alone out of it, or the Regia Marina would have done as well as it has. The fact is that sometimes ships are just not available for whatever reason or they are someplace else. You can play the same game with Japanese battleships. They would have had five ‘Yamato’ class ships available at the time of Java Sea. Going off that alone, the battle never should have been the tactical draw that it was.
It’s also important to understand how Japanese air groups worked. Japanese naval squadrons were not interchangeable in the same way that USN squadrons were. Their air groups were a complete unit, and a fairly inflexible one at that. When the Kido Butai sailed for Midway in OTL, they did so with understrength air groups – even though they had the largely intact air groups from ‘Shokaku’ and ‘Zuikaku’ available. The problem was that the air group was tied to the individual carrier. This inflexibility did not change until later in the war. By contrast, USN air groups interchanged squadrons with little difficulty. So factor in air groups that got chewed up and needed time to rebuild, and you see that an available hull does not necessarily equal a deployable warship.
Oh, for what it’s worth, the losses of fifteen IJN carriers are specifically mentioned in the story up through the Death Ride.
Moving on.
Now just because someplace in the Pacific was the subject of a Japanese air raid doesn't mean that the raid had to come from a carrier. If you look at the ranges of the aircraft that would have been in IJN & IJAAF service in 1946, they are fully capable of striking targets in Malaya, the Philippines, and the Netherlands East Indies on D+1 from bases in occupied China and Formosa. It only gets better from there as they acquire new bases. It's not as though the Japanese were incapable of conducting combat operations without the benefit of carrier air power.
The problem here is that you can't guesstimate what they had in ATL unless you have an understanding of what they actually planned pre-war in OTL. You can't just grant the IJN a certain number of carriers just because it sounds cool or you like what some website says. It is necessary to look at the IJN's actual building plans which were based on actual industrial ability and perceived strategic needs, and knowledge of the USN’s 1940 Program.
* There was ONE carrier in the Fourth plan (1939-45) - 'Taiho'
* There were TWO improved 'Taihos' in the original Fifth plan (1941-47) [one source says three]
* When Japan decided to go to war with the western powers, there was ONE carrier in their Emergency Program - 'Unryu'. This plan replaced the Fifth plan and its ‘Taihos’.
Now, since we know that the USN built additional carriers in the late 1930s, I’ll be generous and say that a second ‘Taiho’ was authorized as part of the Fourth plan. That gives the Kido Butai eight worked up carriers to hit Pearl Harbor with in mid-1946. Now it’s hard to know how the Eurasian War would have affected the Fifth plan, but it’s likely that it was pushed back some due to competing resources. Let’s be generous and say that they went with the three carrier plan with a construction time of about three years per ship and assume lay downs in 1943 and 1944, say one in 1943 and two in 1944. That puts one ship in the water sometime in 1946 and working up, with two more in 1947.
Now, the Sixth Replenishment plan was likely stillborn. Though there were likely a few CVL & CVE conversions between 1943-45. So when the Japanese decided on war with the United States and the AfD, likely Spring 1946, they would have embarked on a Wartime Urgent Replenishment program. It would be here that a mass production design like the ‘Unryu’ would show up.
But not so fast on a surge of carrier construction. Bear in mind that the Japanese tended to not plan for long wars. They counted on a short victorious war where the IJN performed superbly and their enemies didn’t. So figure maybe 1-2 ‘Unryus’ are ordered in anticipation of losses and show up in 1948. Figure they don’t have their freak out until May 1947 after the losses at Midway are added to those from Santa Cruz and Java Sea. In response, they order a large number of carriers, mostly ‘Unryus’. A few of them show up just in time for the Death Ride.
Also relevant is the specific mention of just how many carriers the IJN brought with it to particular fights.
* Pearl Harbor: 8
* Midway: 5
* Slot: 2
* Wake: 3
* South China Sea: 4
* Death Ride: 4
Using fifteen as a starting point, assuming mentioned losses are full size carriers, accounting for what I said above, and factoring in losses and new construction, the IJN likely never had more than nine full size carriers in service at their peak strength in late 1946/early 1947. Things start going downhill after Santa Cruz and Java Sea – post-Midway, new construction doesn’t keep pace with losses. So you might get to your magic number early in the war by counting CVLs, but the ones with any real speed had air groups equal to many US CVE classes. Whatever CVLs were around would have spent most of their time sitting in Hashirajima with the First Fleet or running around on secondary operations based in actual OTL employment. Figure that over the course of the war, a number of CVLs and CVEs were lost to various causes.
Oh, the IJN actually did bring AVs (seaplane tenders/carriers) along on fights - the ‘Chiyoda’ and ‘Nisshin’ were with the main body at OTL Midway carrying midget submarines. The CVLs tended to go as well – they covered the battleline so the big carriers could be used offensively.
Historic Note
Those five improved 'Taihos' and 15 'Unryus' from OTL that folks like to go on about only came about after the disaster at Midway and after Japan abandoned battleship production. In ATL, they continued building battleships through 1947 - completing three additional 'Yamatos' and two 'Super-Yamatos' as battleships, plus two battlecruisers.
For anyone curious about the projected completion dates for the post-Midway carriers:
1944 – ‘Shinano’, ‘Ibuki’, ‘Taiho’, 2 ‘Unryu’
1945: 5 ‘Unryu’
1946: 4 ‘Unryu’, 1 ‘Taiho’
1947: 2 ‘Unryu’, 2 ‘Taiho’
1948: 2 ‘Taiho’
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Heard back from Bobby. Those three extra USN carriers were not CVEs. They were built to the OTL ‘Wasp’ design that was really a cheaper, scaled-down ‘Yorktown’.
He also confirmed that other PACFLT carriers not with the ‘Wasp’ group were doing other things across the Pacific. He also mentioned that the timeline is “high level” and he doesn’t mention every little battle.
Olefin here
Remember guys - Bobby specifically has said in the past that he didnt document every carrier, BB,etc.. loss in the war - just the ones lost in big battles. Thus even though the total loss count is 15 lost in fleet battles that doesnt mean that is all the losses they took.
So any CV's lost that are not part of major battles - losses by the way on both sides - were most likely not mentioned by Bobby.
And since OTL is ripe with such losses (lets start with Wasp, Ark Royal, Shinano just to name three such obvious losses let alone a bunch of Japanese, US, and British CVE's lost to submarines) and it is very obvious that the Japanese fleet is a lot bigger than OTL.
Plus remember we are talking about the 1946 and 47 battles here - which correspond to the 1942 carrier battles for timing - you didnt see too many CVL being used there except as decoys or convoy escorts. The only times CVL were pressed into service with fleets were Hosho at Midway (since the BB were slow enough it could keep up) or in the Solomons as decoys or convoy escorts.
Now by 1944 they had no choice. And even at the Marianas they had very close to full deckloads - for the last time mind you.
So what you are seeing here most likely is that the 8 CV force at Pearl was probably the first line force, with another 2 - 4 CV still fitting out at home or in training and thus not at Pearl. The CVL that were in operation most likely had second line pilots.
After the losses in the early carrier battles those second line guys went to the remaining CV - and the CVL's got trainees and lesser and lesser deckloads
With the result that by the time a lot of those CVL's and perhaps even CVE's had to go into fleet battles they definitely were not ready for prime time.
All comes down to what Bobby calls a CV - and I would like to see him weigh in on this. I know that normally he keeps out of the fray on details - but it would really help define the Pacific battles and give some real definition to what the Japanese fleet of 1946-47 really was.
The German fleet of 1945 for instance seems to be much bigger than what even I would think was realistic given the constraints of the time they had to build it up after the Eurasian War.
And perhaps the Japanese did something as simple as greatly expand their pilot training and rotation compared to what they did in OTL - which could be the solution to how did they get enough pilots for all the carriers they seem to have deployed.
Hey Guys Lets move this to the Old Discussion Board it will be alot easier to read.... :)
Olefin here
Will see if I can sign in there so we can continue the conversation there.
One last thing CJ - considering the US buildup of carriers in the ATL you basically have to look at the Japanese buildup figures from OTL and start over again from scratch for their war plan to make any sense. If the US really did have the amount of fleet carriers that Bobby has said they have then the Japanese had to have more than eight fleet carriers available in 1946 – it is the only way their war plan makes any sense. Especially since they would have known that, at most, four carriers would be at Pearl at any one time. That means even if they took out all four they are still seriously outnumbered by the US in total carriers - even if the canal is shut down it only takes a relatively short time to get modern ships around to the Pacific the hard way.
However a CV fleet of eight in commission and another four ready to join now makes the odds at least even – and when you throw in the CVL’s actually gives them an advantage. Now their war plan makes sense – especially if they have several Taiho’s in commission taking on older smaller carriers with half the Essex force out of commission from day one.
Japan would have gone for, at minimum parity with the US by the time of the war start in CV’s or parity with the strike at Pearl figured in. Anything else is completely suicidal – and Japan would not have embarked on a war that was suicide from day one. They had to have a hope of victory – and that means a greatly increased carrier fleet and a changed carrier build plan – including, as I stated, doing many of the 1942-43 conversions pre-war (Chitose, Chiyuda, Niishin, Hiyo) to get those decks ready from day one – most likely done started once the decision for war was made in late 1945 after their oil supplies from Germany were cut off once the AfD didn’t collapse quickly under the German attack.
And don’t tell me they figured Hitler would declare war – Yamamoto would have never come up with a plan for victory that counted on German intervention to keep the US carrier fleet in the Atlantic pinned in place. Any plan like that would have been shot down from day one by the Emperor and by the Japanese military.
Oh and before anyone says well where did they get the steel and oil to build all those ships – well where did the Germans get the steel to build a huge tank force, the Reich class BB’s, hundreds of subs, the battlecruisers, etc.. that were ready in 1945? The answer – the Axis forces must have done in ATL what they didn’t do in OTL – which was maximize industrial input and planning a lot earlier and thus be able to get stuff built a lot faster than they did in OTL. And considering the vastly greater resources they had interwar from 1942 – 46 (or 45 for Germany) to use it would have been possible.
(i.e. give Japan an extra four years to build ships with the iron ore, nickel, oil, coal, etc.. they had in China and Korea and the supplies captured in the Soviet Union with their decision to not build a modern tank army and I think 12 full size CV in commission or working up at the time of Pearl is very possible)
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